November 2015 NPD - PS4 1.539m, Xb1 1.296m, 3DS 350k, WiiU 240k, Some SW Up

[Rorono]

I think you pretty off about your ratios for EU and RotW.

These are the max and min for Xbox One at end of November.

US 9.8m (70% min) = WW 14m (100%)
US 9.8m (60% max) = WW 16.3m (100%)

Anything outside this range is really hard to believe.

15.5 sounds about right

[ethomaz]

BTW the data we have for big EU countries supports these ratio where US is over 60% of WW sales for Xbox One.

360 did way better than Xbox One in these countries and US never reached 50%.

[Dr. Pezus]

I think you pretty off about your ratios for EU and RotW.

These are the max and min for Xbox One at end of November.

US 9.8m (70% min) = WW 14m (100%)
US 9.8m (60% max) = WW 16.3m (100%)

Anything outside this range is really hard to believe.

...for you

To elaborate: It is not based on any data. 60%+ for USA seems unlikely to me, given the data we have. Like I said, that ratio would require PS4 to be selling considerably more than 4:1 against XB1 in those countries on average. For 14m, the ratio would need to be like 10:1.

[Rorono]

BTW the data we have for big EU countries supports these ratio where US is over 60% of WW sales for Xbox One.

Of course it is. And it'll keep growing over time and get closer and closer to 70% in the end
We should get some 2015 numbers/ratios in the coming weeks. Between Xmas and end of January

[ethomaz]

...for you

To elaborate: It is not based on any data. 60%+ for USA seems unlikely to me, given the data we have. Like I said, that ratio would require PS4 to be selling considerably more than 4:1 against XB1 in those countries on average. For 14m, the ratio would need to be like 10:1.

lol

Ok let's try use your logic.

PS4 sold 10.9m in US plus 21.5m outside it (I added 2.4m for BF week WW).
If Xbox One sold 9.8m in US plus 4.2m outside it.

That means a ratio a bit over 5:1 outside US.

Where are you getting 10:1 lol.

5:1 is a perfect ratio for PS4:Xbox One outside US.

But I'm more inclined to Xbox One having sold ~15m that means ~5.2m outside US dropping the ratio to ~4:1 outside US.

I think you are making wrong maths to reach this 10:1 ratio... 10:1 ratio means Xbox One sold about 2.2m outside US (12m WW).

PS. Your 4:1 ratio outside US puts Xbox One at ~15m... so the ratio you are using agree with the numbers I posted but somehow thinks it is different... 17m means a 3:1 ratio outside US (to me this is impossible).

[Dr. Pezus]

lol

Ok let's try use your logic.

PS4 sold 10.9m in US plus 21.5m outside it (I added 2.4m for BF week WW).
If Xbox One sold 9.8m in US plus 4.2m outside it.

That means a ratio a bit over 5:1 outside US.

Where are you getting 10:1 lol.

5:1 is a perfect ratio for PS4:Xbox One outside US.

But I'm more inclined to Xbox One having sold ~15m that means ~5.2m outside US dropping the ratio to ~4:1 outside US.

I think you are making wrong maths to reach this 10:1 ratio... 10:1 ratio means Xbox One sold about 2.2m outside US.

PS. Your 4:1 ratio outside US puts Xbox One at ~15m.

Huh? Read my posts again. I was using ROW = Global minus US and UK
So XB1 is already at almost 12m in USA+UK by now. For it to only have 2m more in the entire rest of the world the ratio would have to be around 10:1 there.

[Rorono]

It's not 2M, and it's not 4M. It's in between
10:1 is too high, 4:1 is too low.

[ethomaz]

Huh? Read my posts again. I was using ROW = Global minus US and UK
So XB1 is already at almost 12m in USA+UK by now. For it to only have 2m more in the entire rest of the world the ratio would have to be around 10:1 there.

Source?

To me Xbox One didn't crossed 12m with US + UK... they are behind this mark... even if Xbox One sold 2m in UK they are at 11.8m.

But let's use your logic again...

PS4 is at 19m outside US + UK (21.5m - 2.5m for UK)

Xbox One at 14m means about 2.2m outside US + UK = 8.5:1 ratio.
Xbox One at 16.3m means about 4.5m outside US + UK =  4:1 ratio.

The actual situation looks like around 15m... that means 3.5m outside US + UK = 5.5:1 ratio.

Which there ratios is more probably?

8.5:1
5.5:1
4:1

I'm sure you will understand now... and 10:1 ratio put Xbox One at 1.9m outside US + UK = 13.7m WW.

I have a really hard time to believe Xbox One crossed 16m... sorry... that means US accounts for less than 60% of Xbox One sales and that is improbable.

[Dr. Pezus]

Source?

To me Xbox One didn't crossed 12m with US + UK... they are behind this mark... even if Xbox One sold 2m in UK they are at 11.8m.

I assume around 2-2.2m in UK and 9.8. is confirmed in the US.

It's not 2M, and it's not 4M. It's in between
10:1 is too high, 4:1 is too low.

That's still just guesswork though. Nothing to back that up, especially when we can see that even Germany is only 4.2:1 or so and France less than 3:1.

[Dr. Pezus]

Lol, someone on gaf now said that France ratio was 3:1 in 2014 but could be 5-6:1 now. This is what I'm talking about, there is no data that supports that and it just sounds like crazy hopes and dreams.

Now, all of you know that I'm no XB1 fanboy lol but sometimes you just have to use your head instead of mostly listening to your heart.
XB1 is DEFINITELY at 14m+ and probably 16-17m if the 4:1 ratio outside US+UK is about right

[Legend]

Lol, someone on gaf now said that France ratio was 3:1 in 2014 but could be 5-6:1 now. This is what I'm talking about, there is no data that supports that and it just sounds like crazy hopes and dreams.

Now, all of you know that I'm no XB1 fanboy lol but sometimes you just have to use your head instead of mostly listening to your heart.
XB1 is DEFINITELY at 14m+ and probably 16-17m if the 4:1 ratio outside US+UK is about right

Yeah it just did 1.2 mil in the US in a month, it's not doing bad lol.

[ethomaz]

Lol, someone on gaf now said that France ratio was 3:1 in 2014 but could be 5-6:1 now. This is what I'm talking about, there is no data that supports that and it just sounds like crazy hopes and dreams.

Now, all of you know that I'm no XB1 fanboy lol but sometimes you just have to use your head instead of mostly listening to your heart.
XB1 is DEFINITELY at 14m+ and probably 16-17m if the 4:1 ratio outside US+UK is about right

I'm using maths.

It is below 16m because there is nothing that supports it being over that... everything we knows supports a 30-40% sales outside US.

[Dr. Pezus]

I'm using maths.

It is below 16m because there is nothing that supports it being over that... everything we knows supports a 30-40% sales outside US.

That's not math...
Thing is, we only have real numbers from a few countries out of dozens upon dozens.
You keep listing France, Germany, Italy, Spain etc. numbers and then say it can't have sold much more in the rest of the world but there are so many countries outside of that, it wouldn't need to sell much in each one to reach 16m.

Heck, even PS4 is perhaps at only like 5-7m in Germany+France+Italy+Spain. Can it possibly have sold 13-15m in the rest?

[Rorono]

Pezus..think about it. What pattern do you see in the numbers used? The smaller the market, the bigger the ratio in favor of PS4. Spain and Italy > Germany and France right? And it'll be that way in the other even smaller countries too. Be it european countries like Netherlands and Portugal, or asian, or whateveryou want. Don't fall into the trap of thinking they're too small to be significant in influencing the ratio, that's only true individually. After all, they account for roughly >15M (i'm excluding US, Uk, FR and Germany) of PS4 sales when combined. Given what we know a ratio of anything between 7:1 and 10:1 (sometimes more, in Asia) in these countries is more believable than anything else. That's why the 4:1 ratio is too low.

[Dr. Pezus]

Pezus..think about it. What pattern do you see in the numbers used? The smaller the market, the bigger the ratio in favor of PS4. Spain and Italy > Germany and France right? And it'll be that way in the other even smaller countries too. Be it european countries like Netherlands and Portugal, or asian, or whateveryou want. Don't fall into the trap of thinking they're too small to be significant in influencing the ratio, that's only true individually. After all, they account for roughly >15M (i'm excluding US, Uk, FR and Germany) of PS4 sales when combined. Given what we know a ratio of anything between 7:1 and 10:1 (sometimes more, in Asia) in these countries is more believable than anything else. That's why the 4:1 ratio is too low.

The data points are too few to make that conclusion. Plus, we know of smaller markets where the ratio is smaller than in Germany and France (Sweden), somewhere even reversed (Brazil). We also know of similar sized markets where the ratio is bigger (Japan)

Thing is, it's not really based on any logic or data that XB1 is completely dead outside of US+UK+Germany+France.

Heck, let's just remember that MS gave us "almost 10m" shipped in November 2014 iirc, it surely managed to sell 10m by the end of 2014 then. Do you really think it has only sold ~5m this year with November included?

Let's face it, the console isn't THAT dead.

It's being utterly destroyed by PS4 worldwide but there are some limits.