November 2015 NPD - PS4 1.539m, Xb1 1.296m, 3DS 350k, WiiU 240k, Some SW Up

[Rorono]

So what you're telling me is that we won't know cause the official figures (global, not some countries) will be kept hidden inside the fort Knox? Lol, I already I know what. But this is what makes sense to me knowing what I know about these markets, and why I predict 17.5M for X1 at the end of this year. Saying it's at 12 or 13, is fanboi wishful thinking, but I do my numbers on careful consideration given the weight of NA sales that is clearly way higher than the 360. It's also a better match with data from when we had a slightly better sense of its sales in 2014 before MS hid them even further. The US can never account for less than 60% of the console's sales. Never. Nothing supports that.

Edit: please don't refer to almost 10M shipped, that tells me nothing. When did they hit that? December? January?  Desperate PR should be interpreted negatively, not the other way around.

[Dr. Pezus]

So what you're telling me is that we won't know cause the official figures (global, not some countries) will be kept hidden inside the fort Knox? Lol, I already I know what. But this is what makes sense to me knowing what I know about these markets, and why I predict 17.5M for X1 at the end of this year. Saying it's at 12 or 13, is fanboi wishful thinking, but I do my numbers on careful consideration given the weight of NA sales that is clearly way higher than the 360. It's also a better match with data from when we had a slightly better sense of its sales in 2014 before MS hid them even further. The US can never account for less than 60% of the console's sales. Never. Nothing supports that.

Edit: please don't refer to almost 10M shipped, that tells me nothing. When did they hit that? December? January?  Desperate PR should be interpreted negatively, not the other way around.

It's not outpacing 360 that much though.
360's USA ratio was around 52-53% (45/85m or so). An increase from that to 65% would be crazy IMO.
Let's also remind us that XB1 isn't solely getting destroyed in ROW due to lower sales than its predecessor, but also because PS4 is much more of a sales beast there than PS3. So I don't think XB1 is doing quite as terribly as some of you think there, with the exception of Japan and maybe a few other countries.

[Max King of the Wild]

Um... Xbox One will not do nearly as good outside of US or UK compared to last gen.

[Aura7541]

It's not outpacing 360 that much though.
360's USA ratio was around 52-53% (45/85m or so). An increase from that to 65% would be crazy IMO.
Let's also remind us that XB1 isn't solely getting destroyed in ROW due to lower sales than its predecessor, but also because PS4 is much more of a sales beast there than PS3. So I don't think XB1 is doing quite as terribly as some of you think there, with the exception of Japan and maybe a few other countries.

My stance is in the middle. I think the XB1 is getting destroyed outside the US and UK, but its USA ratio hasn't hit 65% yet.

[darkknightkryta]

It's not outpacing 360 that much though.
360's USA ratio was around 52-53% (45/85m or so). An increase from that to 65% would be crazy IMO.
Let's also remind us that XB1 isn't solely getting destroyed in ROW due to lower sales than its predecessor, but also because PS4 is much more of a sales beast there than PS3. So I don't think XB1 is doing quite as terribly as some of you think there, with the exception of Japan and maybe a few other countries.

I think it is.  Sony's out in more countries than MS (The Wisdom of 13 vs 32 was it?).  The other things to consider is that in third world countries; the Playstation brand just has more presence.  Hell it's those places where that kept the PS3's numbers well globally.  With price parity, it'd be foolish to think the Xbox has a chance against Sony in those locations.

[Dr. Pezus]

Um... Xbox One will not do nearly as good outside of US or UK compared to last gen.

Obviously. Doesn't dispute what I'm saying though, since my argument already accounts for a massive difference

I think it is.  Sony's out in more countries than MS (The Wisdom of 13 vs 32 was it?).  The other things to consider is that in third world countries; the Playstation brand just has more presence.  Hell it's those places where that kept the PS3's numbers well globally.  With price parity, it'd be foolish to think the Xbox has a chance against Sony in those locations.

Yeah and I never said it had even a lick of chance lol.

Also, it's out in far more countries now than 13.

[Rorono]

My stance is in the middle. I think the XB1 is getting destroyed outside the US and UK, but its USA ratio hasn't hit 65% yet.

Well mine was 63% (9.8/15.5) so I'm not in the "extreme" either. I think it's a lot more reasonable than VGC's 56%, which is almost 360-levels of performance (53%).

[Dr. Pezus]

Well mine was 63% (9.8/15.5) so I'm not in the "extreme" either. I think it's a lot more reasonable than VGC's 56%, which is almost 360-levels of performance (53%).

Well I am thinking 59-60%.

Do we have any comparisons for 360 vs. XB1 in Germany, France etc.? Directly I mean, not against PS3 and PS4 respectively

[Xevross]

I don't think we have anywhere near enough data to make a reasonable argument about XB1 sales. Imo right now it could be anywhere between 15 and 19 million. I think it will be at about 19m at the end of the year, maybe a bit less.

[the-pi-guy]

Assuming that 24.5m is reasonable (that someone was trying to pass off as all Xbox Ones.... but based on the previous shipments, it does seem reasonable for Xbox as an entity), we can guestimate the following.  This was from like late October I think...  

If the average was 30% for Xbox 360 after those 2 quarters, that would put Xbox One shipments at 15.67m.
If the average was 20% for Xbox 360, that would put Xbox One shipments at 17.18m.

Even at an optimistic 10%, that would put Xbox One shipments at 18.69m.  
At 40%, Xbox One shipments would only be 14.16m.
3.9+1.2=5.1m Xbox Ones
3.5+0.8 = 4.3m Xbox 360s
After this, the number of shipments for each, as far as I know are tricky.  

This leaves though, 15.1m shipments after this date.
Even in that second quarter, the Xbox 360 made up 40% of all shipments.  40% is not reasonable to assume for an average, but neither is 10%.  
Assuming that, the above quote gives an idea.
At 25%, that would put total Xbox One shipments at 16.425m.  

[Dr. Pezus]

As of what date?
Seems close to my estimations

[the-pi-guy]

As of what date?
Seems close to my estimations

Whatever the last MS fiscal.  
They didn't give Xbox shipments, but the last year they had something like 2.3m?  This one website was trying to suggest that the Xbox One should 24.5m by combining Xbox 360+One numbers.  It used 2m for that quarter, which seemed in line with the previous year so I tried to work with it while correcting it.  
Think 16 or maybe even 17m would be reasonable.  

But of course that's all shipped.  

[Dr. Pezus]

Whatever the last MS fiscal.  
They didn't give Xbox shipments, but the last year they had something like 2.3m?  This one website was trying to suggest that the Xbox One should 24.5m by combining Xbox 360+One numbers.  It used 2m for that quarter, which seemed in line with the previous year so I tried to work with it while correcting it.  
Think 16 or maybe even 17m would be reasonable.  

But of course that's all shipped.  

Yeah, shipped until Sept 30. So maybe they would've sold to consumers about that amount by now

[ethomaz]

I believe 17m shipments or even more at this time of the year.

Sold: 15.5m
Shipped: 17.5-18m

That for end of November... to end of December I expect:

Sold: 17m
Shipped: 18.5-19m

They won't reach 20m shipped this year.

[Dr. Pezus]

I believe 17m shipments or even more at this time of the year.

Sold: 15.5m
Shipped: 17.5-18m

That for end of November... to end of December I expect:

Sold: 17m
Shipped: 18.5-19m

They won't reach 20m shipped this year.

1.5m sold in December? Lol. They should sell at least another 1.2m in the US alone