Bet: Will the Activision Deal close? - It has closed

[the-pi-guy]

I've had a weird day, so I haven't been around for in depth thoughts.

It seems pretty clear that Sony is seeing the writing on the wall, and they've finally signed the deal. It sounds like it's a better deal than the original one, but a worse deal than the one back in March or so?  Apparently MS originally offered a 3 year deal for everything, and for some reason I forgot about it. And they supposedly offered a deal back in March that was 10 years for basically everything Activision, and it sounded like it had provisions for PS+ CoD. The signed deal is just CoD on PlayStation, no PS+ stuff.

I think that CoD and live servicey games will continue to be on PlayStation for quite a while. Everything outside of that, feels a lot less certain. Otherwise why would MS have offered a 3 year deal in the first place, and not a 10 year deal if it wasn't likely to change anything?

10 years is alright I think though.  That will be well into the PlayStation 6 at that point.


Not entirely sure how things are going to fold out.  Seems possible the CMA may remove their restriction. MS closes this week, but then they finish some agreement stuff next month. Or the deal gets extended a couple months to finish everything. But it seems like a certainty at this point.  



Killzone, MAG, a lot of great games in there, but they're not enough.

Never played Warhawk, but that one in particular I've heard great things about.  

[SWORDF1SH]

"Killzone, MAG, a lot of great games in there, but they're not enough.

Never played Warhawk, but that one in particular I've heard great things about. "
Very true. If they added a cod like multiplayer to that list, that would be a very powerful group of multiplayer games to have."

Could it be possible for Sony to purchase Respawn from EA? Or at least Sony have some sort of joint venture with EA's Dice or Respawn? Could Sony buy EA?

[the-pi-guy]

Judge: Whatever the restructuring, Microsoft will be acquiring Activision.

— Destin (@DestinLegarie) July 17, 2023

[the-pi-guy]

Could it be possible for Sony to purchase Respawn from EA? Or at least Sony have some sort of joint venture with EA's Dice or Respawn? Could Sony buy EA?

Any of it is possible, but unlikely.
Sony could purchase Respawn from EA, but it seems doubtful that they would give up the amount for EA to sell them.

Exclusivity deals are much more likely.

[BananaKing]

"Killzone, MAG, a lot of great games in there, but they're not enough.

Never played Warhawk, but that one in particular I've heard great things about. "
Very true. If they added a cod like multiplayer to that list, that would be a very powerful group of multiplayer games to have.

Could it be possible for Sony to purchase Respawn from EA? Or at least Sony have some sort of joint venture with EA's Dice or Respawn? Could Sony buy EA?

Respawn has two of the most successful games for EA. The star wars game and Apex legends. No way would EA sell them

I think they would need to aquire EA.

[SWORDF1SH]

Exclusive deals the most likely but that doesn't hit as hard as it needs to. MS are becoming a threat to Sony and MS are putting themselves in a position where they can push everybody around. Sony need to take extreme measures. Can Sony afford $40B? It would be a power move if they bought EA, and they will also get a cut of Gamepass as EA Play is incorporated into it.
EA is as big as CoD for importance  to gamers as it as Fifa and Madden.  It will make MS think twice about throwing their weight around.
But like Pi said, it's probably unlikely

[BananaKing]

Exclusive deals the most likely but that doesn't hit as hard as it needs to. MS are becoming a threat to Sony and MS are putting themselves in a position where they can push everybody around. Sony need to take extreme measures. Can Sony afford $40B? It would be a power move if they bought EA, and they will also get a cut of Gamepass as EA Play is incorporated into it.
EA is as big as CoD for importance  to gamers as it as Fifa and Madden.  It will make MS think twice about throwing their weight around.
But like Pi said, it's probably unlikely

They could probably raise 40 billion through loans and whatever revenue they get. They make billion of profit every year now. They can also offer stock too.

IMO they should go after take two. I don't think MS would get away with buying EA now. So leave them be. But take two is feasible for them, and them having GTA and red dead exclusive would be the nail in the coffin for Sony. But Sony could easily combat CoD being exclusive with GTA being exclusive. Both platforms would be hurt, but both would survive

[kitler53]

The more Phil talks, the more I dislike him. Stop acting like you're doing this for gamers!

I hope Sony take their aces from them. I would love Sony to create a their own modern warfare "clone" for PC and PS and half the CoD userbase. It "only" has to have enough familiarity of CoD but different enough to be fresh and give people a reason to switch. It's doable but a very tall order.  Would take a lot of time, resources and money.

disagree.   

mp games are as much about the "community" as it is about the game itself.   people buy CoD as much for the feeling of safety they get knowing they'll be able to find a match not just at launch but like 2-3 years later.   too many mp games are just dead a couple months after launch.   sony could make the perfect clone of CoD (like literally steal the code and ship it as "call of dooty") and it will still fail.   

no,..  i hope sony finds a way to "replace" CoD but it's got to be more of a "fortnight" situation.  sony will only find success in this genre if they find a way to make the genre new and fresh.  something that could exist even if CoD doesn't wane at all in popularity at all.  

also, even if CoD is on playstation they need to give priority to non-CoD games.   doesn't have to be a sony game.  whatever influence sony has use it to get people excited about battlefield (or whatever) instead.

They could probably raise 40 billion through loans and whatever revenue they get. They make billion of profit every year now. They can also offer stock too.

IMO they should go after take two. I don't think MS would get away with buying EA now. So leave them be. But take two is feasible for them, and them having GTA and red dead exclusive would be the nail in the coffin for Sony. But Sony could easily combat CoD being exclusive with GTA being exclusive. Both platforms would be hurt, but both would survive

i dunno if sony could get TT but i will say this:  i feel like there are a lot of games that basically only buy CoD and GTA.   getting GTA would basically ensure sony's relvance in a world where CoD goes exclusive to xbox.  

...it's a shaming world for consumers though.   2x consoles plus 2x overprices subscriptions.   this truely is the darkest timeline.

[SWORDF1SH]

Mutli quote doesn't work on my phone so if I don't use it, you know why lol.

I agree with you but I think it'll be just as hard to find a way to replace CoD as it is to clone CoD.

There's also a lot of gamers that buy consoles just for Madden or Fifa so EA and those are yearly products.
I think Sony buying Take Two or EA would actually prevent the big games going exclusive.

It's not important for Sony to buy a big publisher/developer but it's  would be important for them to buy a big publisher to not get pushed around by MS.

[kitler53]

agree that either strategy will be hard.  i just think cloning CoD has no chance to succeed while finding a new idea has almost no change to succeed.  

agreed that lots of gamers are just there for madden or fifa (+GTA) as well.  i think most gamers are like me in that they can only consume 1 live service game at a time.  mine is rocket league but i just don't have the time/patients to do daily/weekly missions in 2+ games.   lots of gamers have their favorite and play it pretty obsessively and then play some single player games too with GTA being the most important one.   

i have no fear in madden/fifa going exclusive though no matter who owns them.  like with "the show" the contracts with the sports team is basically requirement a multi-console strategy no matter who makes them.

[the-pi-guy]

Looks likely to close next month.

The CAT has agreed, with some requirements, to pause Microsoft's appeal of the CMA decision to block the Activision Blizzard merger. Both the CMA and Microsoft requested this and it looks like we'll now likely see a small delay to the mergerhttps://t.co/TDiazpCloH

— Tom Warren (@tomwarren) July 17, 2023

[the-pi-guy]

$MSFT Microsoft and $ATVI Activision Blizzard have agreed with the CMA that this is in the best interest of finding a prompt path forward. – A Microsoft spokesperson

— Diane Alter (@diane_alter) July 17, 2023

[nnodley]

As I still randomly browse gaming Twitter, it's just still so wild that people actually believe that Sony trying to buy exclusivity in starfield is the same as MS just buying Bethesda and then literally making every new game exclusive to Xbox.  So mind boggling  

And was there anything in the trial where it came out that Sony was trying to buy full exclusivity for COD cause it sure seems like idiots of Twitter believe so.

[kitler53]

act threatened both MS and Sony to go exclusive to the other platform if they didn't agree to lower platform fees. 

[the-pi-guy]

As I still randomly browse gaming Twitter, it's just still so wild that people actually believe that Sony trying to buy exclusivity in starfield is the same as MS just buying Bethesda and then literally making every new game exclusive to Xbox.  So mind boggling

I saw someone on Era arguing that limiting access (he used a legal term for it that I forgot) that Sony is doing is why M&A exists, so what MS is doing is better.

Despite the fact that limiting access is why MS bought Zenimax.

And was there anything in the trial where it came out that Sony was trying to buy full exclusivity for COD cause it sure seems like idiots of Twitter believe so.

No, but I've seen quite a few people arguing that Sony having a marketing deal is just as bad. Because of reasons...