Prediction: We will find alien life within 5 years

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Started by Legend, Mar 15, 2015, 08:50 PM

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Aw I now understand what you were getting at. Let me continue.

We can all agree the chances of life sustainable world is ridiculously minute. The chances of evolution occurring for intelligent life also ridiculously minute. The chances of those two occuring at two distinct point of space and eventually running into each other?

With very conservative estimates, there are 100 Earth like planets (same sun, same distance from the sun, warm but not too warm liquid water, etc.) for every single grain of sand on our planet. That's over 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 in the universe. Even with the odds of creation at 0.0000001%, that'd be 100 billion planets with life.

Now let's say only 0.001% of those planets evolve advanced life. That's 1 million planets with life similar to ours. Once you get to advanced life, it stops being a game of percents and starts being a game of time. Humans first started being human about 50,000 years ago. Within that time period we've developed science and shot off to the stars. Imaging us 50,000 years in the future is just crazy!

The universe however is around 12 billion years old, with the Earth around 4 billion years old. If one of those million planets reached advanced life just a fraction sooner than us, they could be millions of years more advanced than us. They'd have vast empires covering their entire galaxies. We'd on Earth be able to easily see signs of their existence. This is all statistcs using numbers orders of magnetude lower than our lowest predictions.

Except we've yet to see any signs of these huge alien empires. This is called the fermi paradox. Either life on Earth is the only life, life on Earth is one of the most advanced lifes, something stops aliens from getting more advanced, or alien civilizations are too advanced for us to even notice they exist. The probibility of two life forms being close by each other doesn't matter.