Multiple insiders talk about Xbox exclusives going multiplatform - Phil Spencer to address

[BananaKing]

Firing Don Mattrick might have been necessary, but I'm pretty sure Microsoft made a lot of money off xbox during his reign. The same absolutely cannot be said about Spencer. Probably wouldn't be true even if you ignored the money spent on Activision.


Maybe Satya Nadella is actually at fault, maybe it's a bunch of people screwing up in small ways, but it's surprising that fanboys don't blame at least someone. Fanboys hated Bonnie Ross for what happened to Halo but I don't know of other people at other MS studios getting blamed like that.

What people tend to forget is that Phil was part of the leadership team under matrick. He was responsible for first party. This guy was part of that original pitch for Xbox One.

I think Spencer made a lot of money during the Xbox one era. But not because of his genius, but because market conditions pushed the industry that way. Digital sales, DLC, and micro transactions resulted in console makers/digital stores to rank in a lot of money. Just from third party sales on Xbox and PSN stores they must have made a ton of cash

But yeah, it's weird to me that nobody is taking heat, at least so far. I guess since it's all rumors yet and nothing is official, and we still don't know the extent of MS's intention to go third party. We will see.

[Horizon]

I just have so many random thoughts.


Will any company like Apple or Meta try to push in because of this? Both of those are big on vr and they might be willing to pay for vr ports.

I bought a whole bunch of gamepass because it was really cheap a few years ago. My subscription ends this summer, nice.

Crazy that people were worried MS would lose interest in xbox and dump them, but it was actually the opposite that happened. MS investing so much money feels like a death sentence in retrospect.

Crazy that MS struggled so much post xbox 360. First xbox built a strong fanbase and 360 easily won America. What made it so hard for them to go back to that winning formula?
itshalohappening.gif

I think people forget going into the PS4 Sony had way more momentum than Xbox for the hardcore. Xbox had doubled down on kinect and we're barely providing high quality exclusives whereas Sony finished the gen with The Last of Us, Beyond two souls and GT6. The Last of Us was such a seminal release I think it underpins Sony's momentum going into PS4. It put Naughty Dog and Sony first party studios on the map in such a big way. Xbox obviously utterly fumbled the Xbox One launch whereas Sony was getting its console and first party in order. I really wanted Xbox to take the PS3 approach the end of last gen and early this gen building up their first party with smaller studios but when they purchased Bethesda and ABK I knew that approach was just too slow for them. I do think if they actually if they did the organic PS3 approach MS wouldn't be demanding such a return. Once they got ABK it was clear MS was not going to wait around for Xbox to deliver.

[BananaKing]

Imagine this...  Halo on Playstation.

What's crazier. Imagine if Bungie developed it.....

[kitler53]

This is all crazy. I have a lot of thoughts on this

First of all, I am gonna say I told you so. (well me and kitler) have been saying since forever that a day 1 game pass model just doesn't work. And it's been clear as day why, with so many reasons.

Another thing, I really don't understand how Phill still has his job. This guy has been one cluster fudge after another, a bunch of empty promises, and has not, after almost 100 billion in support, managed to create a steady output of first party IP or created a well managed profile of studios

All signs to me point to this guy just not being the right man for the job. He was the head of first party when Don matrick was there, he then took charge if Xbox, and for 10 years... Only promises of greatness to come. Am I the only one baffled as to why this guy is taking no blame?

to be fair,.. we told them so but at least on this site no one really argued against us.   they added tibits here and there and maybe even occasionally played devil's advocate but no one was strongly against us.   

era on the other hand...

Firing Don Mattrick might have been necessary, but I'm pretty sure Microsoft made a lot of money off xbox during his reign. The same absolutely cannot be said about Spencer. Probably wouldn't be true even if you ignored the money spent on Activision.


Maybe Satya Nadella is actually at fault, maybe it's a bunch of people screwing up in small ways, but it's surprising that fanboys don't blame at least someone. Fanboys hated Bonnie Ross for what happened to Halo but I don't know of other people at other MS studios getting blamed like that.

can I just say it?

Bonnie is a women and Spencer is the epitome of "white man"

Imagine this...  Halo on Playstation.

What's crazier. Imagine if Bungie developed it.....

lulz.  

the next halo seems like a lock based on that listing.  I'd like MCC I suppose.   

...but I really doubt Bungie retakes the helm. the studio walked away because they wanted there shot at new IP

[BananaKing]

to be fair,.. we told them so but at least on this site no one really argued against us.   they added tibits here and there and maybe even occasionally played devil's advocate but no one was strongly against us.  

era on the other hand...
can I just say it?

Bonnie is a women and Spencer is the epitome of "white man"
lulz.  

the next halo seems like a lock based on that listing.  I'd like MCC I suppose.  

...but I really doubt Bungie retakes the helm. the studio walked away because they wanted there shot at new IP

Can't speak about the entire internet. But era pretty much hates white males and worships women. Saying they attacked Bonnie Ross because she is a woman and didn't attack Phil because he is a man doesn't add up there.

As for Bungie and halo. They got to make their new IP, they are making new games. Don't you think a part of them would love to make a new halo game? They would

It would be a win win situation for everybody IMO. Xbox revive halo and get back the hardcore fans, Sony gets halo on Playstation. It sells a lot. And everybody makes a ton of money.

Just imagine the hype it would make. Honestly, I just wanna see it because I'd love to see the hype and craziness behind it.

[the-pi-guy]

But era pretty much hates white males and worships women.

There's more nuance to that.

Can't speak about the entire internet. But era pretty much hates white males and worships women. Saying they attacked Bonnie Ross because she is a woman and didn't attack Phil because he is a man doesn't add up there.

I don't think Era attacked Bonnie Ross, did they?

[the-pi-guy]

to be fair,.. we told them so but at least on this site no one really argued against us.   they added tibits here and there and maybe even occasionally played devil's advocate but no one was strongly against us.  

era on the other hand...

I haven't had any strong opinions.

If MS somehow made it work, good for them. If they don't, it doesn't really affect me.

Era was kind of hilariously delusional about it. There's no way for consumers to spend less money, and developers and MS to make more money. Someone is going to get the short end of the stick. Maybe there's a nice equilibrium where everyone is slightly happy, but not entirely. But that's not what MS would want.

Imagine this...  Halo on Playstation.

What's crazier. Imagine if Bungie developed it.....

I don't think Bungie wants to work on Halo. Pretty sure they bailed out of MS because they wanted to work on other things.

But I'm very excited at the thought of playing Halo MCC on PS5....  

Am I the only one baffled as to why this guy is taking no blame?

Because Phil has crafted the good guy persona.

Some people are blaming him:
But I think most people view him as the good guy, and the real issue is from above him.

I won't keep talking about Xbox until it's all official but I think there's a very important lesson about how you talk to fans.

They got way too friendly and created parasocial relationships - people are taking the rumours so hard as if it's actually a personal betrayal

— Jon Cartwright (@JonComms) February 5, 2024

[kitler53]

Can't speak about the entire internet. But era pretty much hates white males and worships women. Saying they attacked Bonnie Ross because she is a woman and didn't attack Phil because he is a man doesn't add up there.

As for Bungie and halo. They got to make their new IP, they are making new games. Don't you think a part of them would love to make a new halo game? They would

It would be a win win situation for everybody IMO. Xbox revive halo and get back the hardcore fans, Sony gets halo on Playstation. It sells a lot. And everybody makes a ton of money.

Just imagine the hype it would make. Honestly, I just wanna see it because I'd love to see the hype and craziness behind it.

1. there are two sides of era.  the "woke" ones are loud but not everyone is that woke over there...

2. maybe i'm being revisionist here but i dont' remember era in particular being the vocal part of the internet hating on bonnie.

3. you can already see era promoting the "save sarah bond" narrative.   honestly,.. i think they are probably right.   is sarah bond gives the delivery of the message the internet is totally going to shoot the messenger here.   her status as black women is going to make things worse for her.   i'm going to be very, very disappointed if it isn't spencer delivering the message next week.


with respect to bungie/halo,... you have an argument that at least on the surface makes sense.  but unless bungie cancels a game they don't have time to develop it for at least 5 years.   MS has a team working on it.   Sony has never been keen to work on other companies IP.  I just don't see this coming together even if fans would love it.

.. also i just don't think halo is the big franchise it once was.   shooters have gone a different direction since the 90s/00s.   without a significant reboot i just don't know its going to go be popular with the mass market no matter who the developer is.   it's now a legacy franchise with  medium sized nostalgic fanbase.

[nnodley]

yeah I didn't particularly think gamepass was a good model.  Games are such a vastly different medium than tv and movies so that model makes a lot of sense for tv/movies(even if its not working the best for them either)

Being an indie developer myself and knowing the huge costs of games I just never saw how those cost could be offset with a sub model.  Just doesn't seem reasonable.

[kitler53]

yeah I didn't particularly think gamepass was a good model.  Games are such a vastly different medium than tv and movies so that model makes a lot of sense for tv/movies(even if its not working the best for them either)

Being an indie developer myself and knowing the huge costs of games I just never saw how those cost could be offset with a sub model.  Just doesn't seem reasonable.

i think overall TV is doing fine.   it just has too many players.   TV by sub will work out for netflix but no one is going to sub to: netflix, hulu, amazon, disney, max, peacock, youtubeTV, paramount, discovery, apple, espn, not to mention all the minor players like sling.  

it will consolidate down to like 4 players and be stable from there.  

[Legend]

But I'm very excited at the thought of playing Halo MCC on PS5....  

Wonder how they'll handle old games. Port the classics and ps5 players will remember why they used to love xbox. Port more recent games and players will remember why they left xbox.

Sunset overdrive, Sea of Thieves, Hi Fi Rush, the latest Forzas, Grounded, and Starfield seem like the only ports that would be worth it.

Halo mcc doesn't include 5 or Infinite so that could work but idk what they'd do with its multiplayer. Maybe it's better to just wait for the next 343i Halo game and push that on playstation. It'll prob be another reboot anyway.

[kitler53]

Well now that we cannot predict when MS replies should we predict what MS says in their business update?

Okay, so i'm going to take a stab at this:

Scenario 1: MS has lost all faith in their strategy.  xbox.  gamepass.   cloud streaming.   This is the internet speculation doomer path.

1.  All MS goes all in on being a 3rd party publisher
  - All games in development will end up on competitive platforms.   Indy.  Avowed.  Ect. 
  - Numerous back catalog games also end up on competitive platforms.   hi fi rush.  starfield.   I highly doubt "every" game goes multi-plat because long dormant games would take a decent effort to resurrect just to port.   it will be more like sony's take on making ps5 native games for their back catelog:  only happens when porting the game to PC.    + it does not make financial sense to pump out 50 games in a year.   the sales would cannibalize each other.   it makes a lot more sense to port the back catelog over the course of 10 years to maximize profits.
  - games are no longer day-1 on gamepass.   MS pivots to the sony strategy (mostly).   Unlike sony there won't be a strict # of games on the service.  when a MS game is added to the service is stays there.   But like sony,.. games aren't day-1,.. games have no set schedule either (aka 12 months) to incentivize day-1 purchases instead of the "i'll wait" approach. 
- xbox series XS is still supported in full at least until the ps6 hits the market.   MS is simply too big and profitable to rug pull customers.   All MS games continue to come to the console.   consoles are still made/sold as long as someone wants to buy it.    MS can't control what 3rd parties will do but I would expect 3rd party support to continue at least for a few years.
- MS doesn't launch any new hardware to complete against the ps6.   the existing MS games store goes on legacy support for at least 10 years to allow existing xbox customer to still access their game library.   
- MS probably pursues some crazy new idea such as porting "xbox" to windows but the idea flops.



Scenario 2: MS has NOT lost all faith in their strategy.   This is a more nuanced and practical pivot that promises made 2+ years ago about "All Games Day-1 on Gamepass" is not viable and they need a public facing policy that is not confusing to customers.

- MS formalizes 3 publishing branches within MS: 
  - MS games studios
     - Games are exclusive to xbox
     - Games appear on gamepass day-1
   - Bethesda
     - Games launch as xbox timed exclusives
     - Games eventually come to competitive platforms (ps, switch) after a 3-12 month wait.   wait time determined on a case by case basis.
     - Games do NOT come to gamepass day-1 but gamepass subscribers may be rewarded with pre-order discounts.   These games may eventually come to gamepass but there is no formal policy of when.
   - Activision.
      - Games launch day-1 on all platforms
      - Games never come to gamepass

- Internally projects get shuffled around. 
  - Blockbusters like CoD and Minecraft go to Activision as do any live service games like sea of thieves and halo infinite
  - Acquired IP with a multi-plat legacy all go to bethesda as does anything they view as slightly less than blockbuster such as starfield.
  - A small amount of original IP remains with xbox games studios.   things like everwild and maybe fable.

  - This is not a developer focused restructuring.   Any team may publish with any branch depending on MS's view of the game.
  - But most importantly MS can balance their need for revenue with their customer policys in a non-confusing way.

- xbox series XS is fully supported even though it's not doing great
- xbox releases hardware along side ps6
- xbox continues to push for a hardware less future (steaming) to disrupt the status quo.   not sure if it works out for them or not but they keep trying.


how'd i do?

 

[nnodley]

as much as scenario 2 is the practical way they should go. I have a feeling they will go scenario 1 overtime and just fudge it all up.

[kitler53]

was posted on era.  good read so i figured i'd share:

https://www.windowscentral.com/gaming/xbox/opinion-this-weeks-big-xbox-drama-showcases-how-little-people-trust-nadellas-microsoft-a-legacy-forged-in-the-death-of-windows-phone

[Horizon]

Where would Sea of Thieves fit in scenario 2 as that is XGS?