Bet: Will the Activision Deal close? - It has closed

[the-pi-guy]

If Europe blocks the deal, it's certainly dead.

If they don't, MS Activision can push CMA for some miracles.

Not exactly sure what the deal is with CMA appealing.
Quite a few people were saying that 1 in 3 end up completing after CMA block. But then there are some other articles that claim the CMA has never changed their mind, in other words an appeal has never worked.

So I'm not sure if that 1/3 is inaccurate or if those deals closed in a different fashion.

[nnodley]

I still think it is so ballsy that MS is signing deals when the deal isn't even completed. Like whuut

[Legend]

I still think it is so ballsy that MS is signing deals when the deal isn't even completed. Like whuut

That's probably normal. They can easily make it so the contracts only apply once/if the Activision purchase finalizes.

[the-pi-guy]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-hires-brussels-beating-lawyer-153403977.html

In any case, MS has hired Monckton Chambers, not a specific lawyer. Monckton is a legal boutique based in London highly specialised in competition law. They are top of the top in the area, specially merger appeals at UK and EU level.

One of the stars of Monckton Chambers, but not the only one, is Daniel Beard, top of the line for more than 15 years. If you want to see why MS has hired Monckton, just check the profile from Daniel Beard:

"A tenacious litigator and a colourful advocate, who is very eloquent in his advocacy." "He'll often see a different angle to everyone else, or an argument that's not super obvious at first. He then runs these ideas in a way that works, all the while remaining pragmatic and sensible." "A barrister who approaches complex disputes well, he is very strategic in his advice."

"Singled out as one of the Bar's leading lights when it comes to telecoms. Respondents effuse that "clients love him and his ability to turn around a losing point in court".

"When you have something tricky, he's the man to work with him." "Tactically, he is a great advocate, and it's always a pleasure to have him on your team."

Era lawyer opinion

[the-pi-guy]

No, I don't think that there is a 0% chance of the deal going forward. But there is a low to very low chance of this going forward because lots of things have to happen and they need 12-18 extra months:

- The EC and SAMR have to approve it (likely).

- Everyone else has to approve it (very likely, but Australia could be a wild card).

- ABK and MS need to renegotiate the merger agreement (my guess is that they will set a new outside date + 2 possible extensions, a new break up fee up to 5-6B and maybe even some ticking fees to compensate shareholders with the per-share merger price increased by fractions of a penny-per-day for each additional day, for example).

- They'll have to find a way to accelerate the case with the FTC (or they will have to deal with the administrative process for a very long time) and win them in court.

- CAT has to rule in their favor (I think that the stats are around 25-30%; very hard but not impossible and they have quite a unique case).

- The CMA has to review the case again and issue a new final report (at least they would have a new chance to offer remedies).

So, no 0% chance but not an easy task and we could be here forever :p xD

ResetEra Lawyer

[Legend]

So you're telling me there's a chance!

-xbox fanboys



It's actually kinda crazy how the series x subreddit thinks the deal is all but a sure thing still.

[kitler53]

So you're telling me there's a chance!

-xbox fanboys



It's actually kinda crazy how the series x subreddit thinks the deal is all but a sure thing still.

this post without the gif should be a crime.

[Legend]

UK PM Rishi Sunak Will 'Strategically Steer' The CMA To 'Not Get In The Way' - Gameranx

Sure sounds like grasping at straws lol. None of Rishi Sunak's statements are about the deal.

[the-pi-guy]

#EUMergerControl Commission ???????? clears acquisition of Activision Blizzard ????by Microsoft, subject to conditions ????

??????https://t.co/qG3D0jNfPo pic.twitter.com/Q3P2miYisH

— EU Competition (@EU_Competition) May 15, 2023

[kitler53]

oi.  that's not good.  now this drama is going to drag on for another 3 years.  MS is going to win this eventually aren't they.   

[the-pi-guy]

That last part is significant.

Not having to pay a fee to have such a massive amount of value-oriented content is a big deal to service providers.

Also curious if the list of providers is limited--it was potentially limited in the Cloud Remedy that the CMA published.

— Derek Strickland (@DeekeTweak) May 15, 2023

I don't remember seeing this level of access in in the version of Microsoft's Cloud Remedy included in the CMA's final decision.

Perhaps MSFT negotiated a specific Cloud Remedy for Europe?

This is really substantial. pic.twitter.com/viUJMDUkKx

— Derek Strickland (@DeekeTweak) May 15, 2023

EU Commission squashed the console gaming theory of harm quickly, saying that Microsoft would have no incentive to keep ATVI games from Sony.

Also, PlayStation consoles outsell Xbox 4:1 in the European Economic Area (EEA). pic.twitter.com/XHxlRROgT7

— Derek Strickland (@DeekeTweak) May 15, 2023

[the-pi-guy]

oi.  that's not good.  now this drama is going to drag on for another 3 years.  MS is going to win this eventually aren't they.  

There's a part of me that's wondering if MS will bully the UK and get their way....

I'm pretty sure better governments have failed against smaller companies...  

[kitler53]

There's a part of me that's wondering if MS will bully the UK and get their way....

I'm pretty sure better governments have failed against smaller companies...  

exactly.

and with this outcome EU is basically inviting MS to pull CoD off of playstation hardware.   i think the claim that MS will have no incentive to pull games from playstation is entirely BS.   the gains to be had from killing a competitor are like 10-100x higher than the temporary revenue losses associated to their games not selling on playstation.   CoD would still sell like 80% of it's sales if limited to PC and xbox.   As huge as CoD is for playstation,.. playstation is just a peice of the pie for CoD and customers will move.  that's the point of why MS wants the franchise in the first place.

...plus diablo and elder scrolls and fallout and doom and all those other franchises MS is taking away from playstation.   

[the-pi-guy]

For example, in 2021 the CMA criticised in public the EC regarding the Google/Fitbit acquisition and the behavioural remedies accepted. But it was a couple of months after the decision, not just minutes.

It's obvious that there is tension between both and that the CMA is feeling some extra pressure to justify its decision.

Idas

[Legend]

Unlike the CMA these regulators seem really stupid and ignorant based off some of the quotes, but the decision makes sense. Xbox is so much smaller in the rest of Europe.