Nintendo Q3 FY2019 - 9.42M Switch, 12.1M Smash, 10.0M Pokemon, 5.3M Mario Party

[Xevross]

Nintendo FY3/2019 3rd Quarter Earnings Release, Supplemental Information & Top Selling Titles | ResetEra

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2019/190131e.pdf

Code Select Expand

+---------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Switch          | This Quarter  | FY Cumulative |      LTD      | FY Forecast   |
+---------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Hardware (units)|          9.42M|          14.49M|         32.27M|          17.0M|
| Software (units)|         52.51M|         94.64M|         163.61M|         110.0M|
+---------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
(Software sales units include both packaged and downloadable versions of software.)
###
+---------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| 3DS             | This Quarter  | FY Cumulative |      LTD      | FY Forecast   |
+---------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Hardware (units)|          1.31M|           2.31M|         74.84M|           2.6M|
| Software (units)|          4.81M|          11.08M|        375.97M|          13.0M|
+---------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
(Software sales units include both packaged and downloadable versions of software.)

Code Select Expand

+---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Title                                   | FY Japan  | FY Overseas | FY Global      | Global LTD   |
+---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze    |      0.28M|        1.79M|           2.08M|         2.08M|
| Mario Tennis Aces                       |      0.52M|         2.0M|           2.53M|         2.53M|
| Mario Kart 8 Deluxe                     |      0.71M|        5.09M|            5.8M|        15.02M|
| The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild |      0.37M|        2.84M|           3.21M|        11.68M|
| Super Mario Oddysey                     |      0.29M|        3.06M|           3.35M|        13.76M|
| Splatoon 2                              |      0.72M|        1.53M|           2.25M|         8.27M|
| Octopath Traveler                       |       0.0M|        1.08M|           1.08M|         1.08M|
| Super Mario Party                       |      1.05M|        4.25M|            5.3M|          5.3M|
| Pokémon Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee          |      1.85M|        8.16M|           10.0M|         10.0M|
| Super Smash Bros. Ultimate              |      3.17M|        8.92M|          12.08M|        12.08M|
+---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Specific Q3 shipments for older games:

Mario Kart 8 - 3.31m
Super Mario Odyssey - 1.59m
Breath of the Wild - 1.4m
Splatoon 2 - 800k
Mario Tennis Aces - 370k
Kirby Star Allies - 320k
1-2 Switch - 220k

Hardware forecast reduced to 17M from 20M for the FY, but they should are at 14.5M already so should hit 18M.

Code Select Expand

+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|                 | This Quarter  | FY Cumulative             | FY Forecast   |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Net Sales       |      ¥608,390M|      ¥997,295M   (~$9.17B)|    ¥1,200,000M|
| Operating Income|       ¥158,624M|       ¥220,029M (~$2.02B)|      ¥225,000M|
| Net Profit      |       ¥104,209M|       ¥168,785M (~$1.55B)|      ¥165,000M|

Nintendo are doing very well.

[Xevross]

Smash is about where expected (absolutely massive). Pokemon at 10M is awesome, I thought it would be a bit lower. Mario Party is brilliant too. Evergreens all doing very well, so software-wise this was an incredible quarter. And super wow at MK8D

Switch HW was about 1M lower than the minimum needed for 20M to be possible. I still think they'll ship 18-19M, so not sure why they forecast all the way down to 17M. Still a very good Q though, 9.42M is only 280k less than PS4's best Q.

[ethomaz]

I guess they have good inventory on shelves so expecting to ship around 2.5m in Q4.

[Xevross]

I guess they have good inventory on shelves so expecting to ship around 2.5m in Q4.

Maybe, if that's the case then sell through must have been pretty low worldwide. Personally I think they'll ship 3.5M and hit 18M for the FY.

[Xevross]

First quarter comparison:

XY - 11.61m (4.34m Japan / 7.27m ROTW)
ORAS - 9.35m (2.92m Japan / 6.43m ROTW)
SM - 14.69m (3.81m Japan / 10.88m ROTW)
USUM - 7.71m (2.37m Japan / 5.3m ROTW)
LGPE  - 10.0m (1.85m Japan / 8.16m ROTW)

Lets Go is doing very well. Only looks weak compared to, the significantly pokemon go boosted, Sun and Moon. XY had an extra month, so LGPE is probably performing 2nd best out of these. If Gen 8 can get back to form in Japan, then its going to be huge WW.

[BananaKing]

As i have been saying the 20 million forecast was impossible.

Even during the holidays I said it was tracking very similar to PS4 in most markets (some above like in Japan, some lower). So it selling massively more made no sense. Still it's a huge number for Nintendo and a strong performance

Smash is huge, Pokémon as well. It's crazy that mario party sold that much.

[Xevross]

As i have been saying the 20 million forecast was impossible.

Even during the holidays I said it was tracking very similar to PS4 in most markets (some above like in Japan, some lower). So it selling massively more made no sense. Still it's a huge number for Nintendo and a strong performance

Smash is huge, Pokémon as well. It's crazy that mario party sold that much.

It was never impossible, just depends how much they wanted to push it. They decided that there would be no discounts on Switch HW and that made it very difficult.

In the end it looks like Switch will have shipped about 1M more than PS4 in the holiday Q, and PS4 will have been the top selling console of 2018 WW. Switch should have been #1, especially considering Nintendo consoles normally have shorter legs. A price cut/ a new SKU/ both are needed for Switch this year.

[Xevross]

Mario Kart 8D at over 15M is crazy. With WiiU included, MK8 is over 23 million and could well end up the top selling Mario Kart if there's no new MK for Switch.

Mario Odyssey is now the top selling 3D mario game by over a million (Galaxy is #2). Brilliant performance.

Breath of the Wild with 13M on WiiU+Switch is the best selling Zelda game, and 13M is enormous for that series.

Mario Party launch Q over 5M, Splatoon 2 is now over 8M.

Switch is pushing software to new heights. Can't wait to see how Animal Crossing does.

[DerNebel]

It was never impossible, just depends how much they wanted to push it. They decided that there would be no discounts on Switch HW and that made it very difficult.

In the end it looks like Switch will have shipped about 1M more than PS4 in the holiday Q, and PS4 will have been the top selling console of 2018 WW. Switch should have been #1, especially considering Nintendo consoles normally have shorter legs. A price cut/ a new SKU/ both are needed for Switch this year.

Pretty sure that Banana means impossible given the circumstances of the year. Let's not forget that even until like 3 weeks ago people were saying that they expect Nintendo to hit that goal or that it wouldn't be that unlikely.

[ethomaz]

After Q1 it already showed it was really difficult and unlikely they will reach 20m.
Q2 results made it impossible.

Q1 + Q2 should be around 30% bigger than it was.

Q3 was phenomenal but it was impossible to cover the lack of selling power of the two first quarters.

I still believe Q4 will be at max 3m... probably close to 2.5m than 3m because that forecast revision is already close to the real data and Nintendo have a way better ideia of what they will ship.

Mario Kart 8D at over 15M is crazy. With WiiU included, MK8 is over 23 million and could well end up the top selling Mario Kart if there's no new MK for Switch.

Mario Odyssey is now the top selling 3D mario game by over a million (Galaxy is #2). Brilliant performance.

Breath of the Wild with 13M on WiiU+Switch is the best selling Zelda game, and 13M is enormous for that series.

Mario Party launch Q over 5M, Splatoon 2 is now over 8M.

Switch is pushing software to new heights. Can't wait to see how Animal Crossing does.

It is really great for Nintendo.

The only negative is that again Nintendo push with 3rd party software didn't pay out so 3rd-party are not that interested in invest in the platform unless it is a late port.

[BananaKing]

Pretty sure that Banana means impossible given the circumstances of the year. Let's not forget that even until like 3 weeks ago people were saying that they expect Nintendo to hit that goal or that it wouldn't be that unlikely.

Pretty much, and yeah there where people even saying 22 million or so.

Mario Kart 8D at over 15M is crazy. With WiiU included, MK8 is over 23 million and could well end up the top selling Mario Kart if there's no new MK for Switch.

Mario Odyssey is now the top selling 3D mario game by over a million (Galaxy is #2). Brilliant performance.

Breath of the Wild with 13M on WiiU+Switch is the best selling Zelda game, and 13M is enormous for that series.

Mario Party launch Q over 5M, Splatoon 2 is now over 8M.

Switch is pushing software to new heights. Can't wait to see how Animal Crossing does.

They still have a new mario kart, mainline Pokémon and animal crossing left for their major titles for the gen. We might get another Zelda or mario, but getting both is highly unlikely IMO. So in terms of major hardware sellers the switch has those left. With how the market sales curve has changed got PS and Xbox, I wonder how switchs sales curve will be. And next gen is looming against the horizon, how that will affect its sales is yet to be seen.

[Xevross]

Pretty sure that Banana means impossible given the circumstances of the year. Let's not forget that even until like 3 weeks ago people were saying that they expect Nintendo to hit that goal or that it wouldn't be that unlikely.

Yeah, I think it was only impossible once we'd learned of December sales figures. There was always a chance, but they probably needed a price cut to do it.

Pretty much, and yeah there where people even saying 22 million or so.

They still have a new mario kart, mainline Pokémon and animal crossing left for their major titles for the gen. We might get another Zelda or mario, but getting both is highly unlikely IMO. So in terms of major hardware sellers the switch has those left. With how the market sales curve has changed got PS and Xbox, I wonder how switchs sales curve will be. And next gen is looming against the horizon, how that will affect its sales is yet to be seen.

22 million was always fantasy land, early in the year I said 18-19m and then I said they might make it to 20m with some channel stuffing, but they'd never have gone higher than that.

Yeah Switch isn't going to have impact from system sellers as big as Smash in the west again. I doubt they'll even bring out a new mario kart (although I hope they do). With zelda, 2d and 3d mario already on the system, I doubt any new games or sequels would move that many systems on their own. In the west it's pretty much just animal crossing and gen 8 left as their big system sellers. Neither of those will be massive either, as AC isn't a mega seller in the west and we already have pokemon games on the system. I think Switch sales will only pick up in the west with price cuts and new revisions now, but the evergreens will keep selling. Of course it will get some bumps on months that big games release, but none will leave any lasting effects.

In Japan, there's still a lot of selling to do. A price cut will be huge there, but there's also more system sellers to come. Yokai Watch, DQ, Gen 8, Animal Crossing are all going to be huge in Japan and move a lot of hardware.

Switch is almost matching Wii launch aligned, and I think it will fall off just as fast from peak sales. And peak sales won't be as high as the Wii either. Switch certainly isn't going to just keep on selling like PS4 is, I think it'll land around 80-90M when all is said and done.

[Cute Pikachu]

Crazy software numbers.
More info also includes Octopath at 1.08 million in the West and captain Toad switch over a Million too.

Hardware is lower but
In a general sense is still very strong.

[Dr. Pezus]

Weird that Nintendo revises so low. They more than we do. I guess they have some stock on shelves. I doubt they'll ship 3.5m this quarter

[Legend]

Smash already outsold Zelda. Wow.