Nintendo Q3 FY2019 - 9.42M Switch, 12.1M Smash, 10.0M Pokemon, 5.3M Mario Party

[kitler53]

I still think they'll ship 18-19M, so not sure why they forecast all the way down to 17M. 

14.49 million + 2.93 million (Q4 of last year's shippments) = 17.42 million.

to reach 18 million means better YoY growth in Q4 than they achieved in the holidays.  we also know that last year switch was much more supply constraint coming out of the holiday than this year.   they aren't going to reach 18 million imo.  changing the forcast to 17 million is so they don't have to miss their numbers 2 quarters in a row.

[Xevross]

14.49 million + 2.93 million (Q4 of last year's shippments) = 17.42 million.

to reach 18 million means better YoY growth in Q4 than they achieved in the holidays.  we also know that last year switch was much more supply constraint coming out of the holiday than this year.   they aren't going to reach 18 million imo.  changing the forcast to 17 million is so they don't have to miss their numbers 2 quarters in a row.

Yeah thinking about it now its probably more likely to land in the 17.5-18M range. And yeah they put it to 17M because it'd look really bad if they missed their reduced estimate.

[ethomaz]

Just to point that forecast revision was made after Nintendo already knows how much they shipped in January... or at least they have a complete ideia of January (missing very few days).

Unless orders from retail spike up in February or March I don't see they missing this new forecast.

[Cute Pikachu]

The least hyped Pokémon game of all time did 10 million in less than 2 months. Gen 8 gonna be huge

In less then two years the Switch has 5 games over 10 million.
Mario Kart  8 Deluxe
Mario Odyssey
Legend of Zelda BOTW
Super Smash Bros Ultimate
Pokémon Let's Go!
This year it will add
Pokémon Gen 8
Animal Crossing Switch
Splatoon 2

That would be 8 10 million+ sellers in 3 years. Wii had 9 total. Hell NSMBUDX could do it too.
Wii's record is going down. If thy make a Mario Maker 2

[Cute Pikachu]

So looking at the briefing it looks like Switch increased 40% yoy in Europe during quarter 3.

[kitler53]

Just to point that forecast revision was made after Nintendo already knows how much they shipped in January... or at least they have a complete ideia of January (missing very few days).

Unless orders from retail spike up in February or March I don't see they missing this new forecast.

lol yes.  i didn't actually crunch the numbers but to miss 17 million would require like shipments to be like 20% lower than last year.   the holiday quarter would of needed a massive amount of channel stuffing to make Q4 that bad.   like xevross said, i think they will miss 18 million but beat 17.5 million.

[ethomaz]

There you go...



32.27m shipped as Dec 31, 2018.
30m sold-thought end of  January, 2019.

They probably had around 3m on shelves.

Shipment this quarter will be lower than last year.

[Xevross]

There you go...



32.27m shipped as Dec 31, 2018.
30m sold-thought end of  January, 2019.

They probably had around 3m on shelves.

Shipment this quarter will be lower than last year.

PS4 had 3M on the shelves after most holidays, seems like the standard number for that level of sales. I think they should still be up YOY.

[ethomaz]

PS4 had 3M on the shelves after most holidays, seems like the standard number for that level of sales. I think they should still be up YOY.

And Sony has Q4 shipment like 2.5m.

[Xevross]

And Sony has Q4 shipment like 2.5m.

Sony ships in Q4 what they need to hit their target. Although I guess if Nintendo did only that then they'd be down YOY. We'll, if they do hit only 17M then switch is definitely starting to be a sales disappointment.