Video Game Sales Thread

[BananaKing]

Really? Because all I ever saw before the PS4 launch was that Japan would do better than PS3 easily. In fact people are still saying PS4 will do better once more games like FF come out.

Its like no one can read the situation there. No matter how many games come out, its  not going to meaningfully increase the PS4 install base.

yeah, and people seem to forget that the NX is launching, while the PS4 doesnt have stiff competition with a weak WiiU and a Dying 3DS. once the NX comes out it will really go after the PS4 as well. and if the rumors are true and the NX is two consoles, one a handheld and the other a console, then PS4 has two strong competitors,  and one is a handheld, the prefered console type in japan.

i say PS4 will do between 6.5 million and 8.

[DerNebel]

yeah, and people seem to forget that the NX is launching, while the PS4 doesnt have stiff competition with a weak WiiU and a Dying 3DS. once the NX comes out it will really go after the PS4 as well. and if the rumors are true and the NX is two consoles, one a handheld and the other a console, then PS4 has two strong competitors,  and one is a handheld, the prefered console type in japan.

i say PS4 will do between 6.5 million and 8.

NX could be a huge dud as well, especially the home console part.

[BananaKing]

NX could be a huge dud as well, especially the home console part.

but the handheld will most likely be really big. which will certainly take a lot of sales from the PS4.

[ethomaz]

We looking at the same graph?

Context.

Japan market is not like PS1/PS2 gen anymore.

PS4 is doing great.

It will be the market leader soon and be way ahead PS3.

[the-pi-guy]

Really? Because all I ever saw before the PS4 launch was that Japan would do better than PS3 easily. In fact people are still saying PS4 will do better once more games like FF come out.

Its like no one can read the situation there. No matter how many games come out, its  not going to meaningfully increase the PS4 install base.

Why do you think so?  
So far, the PS4 is doing pretty well, compared to the PS3.  The PS3 gets a pretty big jump due to Final Fantasy XIII (and a couple of other games) towards the end of that year.  

PS3 sales tripled that week to ~237K (last week was already a big week).  FFXIII sold 1.5 million in the first week, and it was the only PS3 game in the top 10.  Only 1 other PS3 game in the top 30.  The following week is pretty similar, and PS3 sold 110K.  With only 2 PS3 games in the top 30.  Sales went up slightly to the next week and there were 3 PS3 games in the top 30.  

So far in the year, PS3 and PS4 have been pretty much neck and neck.  Why do you think it'll change going forward, and why won't games have an impact?  

The PS4 will never do better than the PS2 or PS1, but I'm not seeing the same for PS3.  
If nothing major comes out, it'll fall behind, (and probably will this year).  
But why do you think games won't change the situation?  

[ZhugeEX]

NX could be a huge dud as well, especially the home console part.

So was the Wii U. Yet it's still the best selling 8th gen home console in Japan.
Lets not even talk about how handhelds / mobile continually outsell home consoles in Japan.

Context.

Japan market is not like PS1/PS2 gen anymore.

PS4 is doing great.

It will be the market leader soon and be way ahead PS3.

Perhaps then this graph will help provide more context-



The simple fact is that home consoles are not performing well in Japan. We've seen record sales in the US, Europe & Asia but Japan is the one market where sales are consistently low.

Why do you think so? 
So far, the PS4 is doing pretty well, compared to the PS3.  The PS3 gets a pretty big jump due to Final Fantasy XIII (and a couple of other games) towards the end of that year. 

PS3 sales tripled that week to ~237K (last week was already a big week).  FFXIII sold 1.5 million in the first week, and it was the only PS3 game in the top 10.  Only 1 other PS3 game in the top 30.  The following week is pretty similar, and PS3 sold 110K.  With only 2 PS3 games in the top 30.  Sales went up slightly to the next week and there were 3 PS3 games in the top 30. 

So far in the year, PS3 and PS4 have been pretty much neck and neck.  Why do you think it'll change going forward, and why won't games have an impact? 

The PS4 will never do better than the PS2 or PS1, but I'm not seeing the same for PS3. 
If nothing major comes out, it'll fall behind, (and probably will this year). 
But why do you think games won't change the situation? 

You're forgetting that we're comparing the market as a whole, rather than just a singular console. Each generation we've seen more than 25 million home consoles sold through in Japan, even last gen. This gen it looks like we may not even see 10 million + until the very end. Yes I understand that the PS4 may start tracking higher than the PS3, but it won't be for long and it won't be meaningful as the number of installed consoles will still be much lower compared to prior generations. Which ultimately means for publishers that it may not be worth investing in console games on such a low install base in Japan unless the game will be successful in the West / can be ported to more successful gaming systems in Japan. Square Enix have been clever in that regard. Final Fantasy is coming to home console because of its popularity in the West, Dragon Quest coming to both console and portable due to its popularity in Japan.

The PS4 is just about doing as well as the PS3 despite all the advantages the console has this gen vs last gen (talking about high price of PS3 here). We're still seeing plenty of games sell better on Vita or PS3 (Japanese companies are still being forced to release on PS3/Vita) and the PS4 versions of games are not selling well at all. We still haven't had a game sell more than 500k in Japan on PS4 and the PS4 has literally NO competition in Japan for third party / Sony published games.

The PS4 will no doubt be the leading console this generation. No one can argue with that. But the success that the system has and games for the system have may not exactly be anything to shout about. PS4 games are currently being held back because of the Vita / PS3 versions, not to mention the small install base. Exclusive PS4 titles may not be able to make up the gap.

I'm not saying that EVERY Japanese gamer has now gone to handhelds or mobile. But it's clear that the number of home console games coming out is decreasing every year (will stabilize soon), the number of people buying home consoles is contracting and the number of publishers supporting the system are contracting too. Just the fact that Sony delayed the launch of PS4 in Japan and PS4 having sold more than 36 million worldwide with just 2 million in Japan is very telling.

[DerNebel]

So was the Wii U. Yet it's still the best selling 8th gen home console in Japan.
Lets not even talk about how handhelds / mobile continually outsell home consoles in Japan.

But the Wii Us leading position is pretty much only thanks to its early launch, also if the situation for the NX doesn't change then the overlap in terms of software between PS4 and NX will be minimal anyway.

Also, yeah handhelds definitely outperform home consoles, but that's kinda the thing, they are already doing that anyway, so I'm not sure if a new handheld would further that situation in favour of handhelds or if it would just continue the status quo. And again there will be hardly any overlap between PS4 and NX handheld either.

I'm really not that sure if the NX will have a huge effect on the PS4 in Japan unless Nintendo managed to study up and actually get the 3rd parties that now mostly shun Nintendo on board and despite all these colourful rumours flying around I'm still very skeptical on that front.

[DerNebel]

Btw. regarding Persona 5 sales in Japan and in general again, some people might think that my expectations for that games' sales are very optimistic, but they are nothing against what Colin Moriarty apparently expects....

https://youtu.be/HtstmLxgSls?t=425

I think he's pretty out of touch here, but he does mention a good point in that even Square Enix acknowledged Persona 5 as a potential competitor to Final Fantasy XV, which I believe really speaks for how relevant Persona has become in Japan and worldwide.

[ethomaz]

@ZugueEx

The record sales in home consoles in US/EU only apply if you exclude Wii.

Sales are down all across the board.

The exception is maybe Asia but that is why in orevious generation they got the consoles year late and the market were not too accecible for consoles.

Wii + 360 + PS3 was over 90m in 3rd year... this gem is less than 70m.

It is fun to see companies like EA spinning data saying this gem is about 20m ahead last gem when they exclude 40m+ sales from Wii.

[Cute Pikachu]

dang that Twilight Princess HD has been in amazons top 20 for like months now?

[DerNebel]

dang that Twilight Princess HD has been in amazons top 20 for like months now?

Amiibo power man

The one that surprises me is the Division which has been ahead on X1 on amazon very consistently and I mean ahead by a lot, there were times when the X1 version was 5th and on PS4 the game would hardly crack the top 40.

Edit: Then again maybe it's a bug with the Division or something, cause the yearly chart for 2016 and the monthly chart for February doesn't reflect the same result.

[Raven]

Amiibo power man

The one that surprises me is the Division which has been ahead on X1 on amazon very consistently and I mean ahead by a lot, there were times when the X1 version was 5th and on PS4 the game would hardly crack the top 40.

Edit: Then again maybe it's a bug with the Division or something, cause the yearly chart for 2016 and the monthly chart for February doesn't reflect the same result.

Yeah. I was going to say. According to the yearly and monthly charts, the PS4 version has a firm lead.

[DerNebel]

SFV launched to less than 24k at retail in the UK (but it was 5th in France the week before launch), seriously I'm going to be so pissed, if this whole shame makes Capcom drop the longterm support they had planned for SFV.

[Horizon]

Hopefully it has strong digital sales. I have quickly realised that the UK market probably has more casual gamers than any other market. Here my friends mainly just pick up GTA, Fifa, COD, Fallout and every now and then the big exclusive like Uncharted 4 (when it comes out) or something like Driveclub to fill that racing niche. It seems like it could do well in Europe though but the word of out mouth regarding lack of content surely did not help.

[Xevross]

Hopefully it has strong digital sales. I have quickly realised that the UK market probably has more casual gamers than any other market. Here my friends mainly just pick up GTA, Fifa, COD, Fallout and every now and then the big exclusive like Uncharted 4 (when it comes out) or something like Driveclub to fill that racing niche. It seems like it could do well in Europe though but the word of out mouth regarding lack of content surely did not help.

Yeah the UK is the land of the casuals that's for sure.

Although I expected SFV to be higher I'm not surprised. Fighting games have practically no audience here. I haven't seen any ad for it and I haven't heard anyone talk about it.