Not really. It's definitely a conservative estimate and probably driven even more so by the uncertainty of the public reaction since this isn't easy to market. It's probably not going to be cheap, either. Don't look for VR to explode early on. This is something that will rely on word of mouth so the burn is going to be slower than, say, motion controls.VR also is so hard to market.
How the heck do you make a good commercial?