Bet: Will the Activision Deal close? - It has closed

[the-pi-guy]

I think buying square is the stupidest idea ever.

They are mismanaged, they aren't the best developers, and the biggest point is that square needs Sony a lot more than Sony needs square. If MS buy square and out their games exclusive on Xbox they are gonna die. There is little risk of Xbox buying square for that reason.

Their biggest priority isn't fending against Xbox. It's building up the experience.

They've talked a lot about wanting more mobile experience in house to help them with their mobile ambitions.

Sure, Square Enix doesn't make the biggest, greatest games, but they have a lot of things that Sony wants.

[kitler53]

I think buying square is the stupidest idea ever.

They are mismanaged, they aren't the best developers, and the biggest point is that square needs Sony a lot more than Sony needs square. If MS buy square and out their games exclusive on Xbox they are gonna die. There is little risk of Xbox buying square for that reason.

like MS cares,..  hurting sony is more important to them then anything else.   it would transition all SE exclusives from ps to xbox and make ps and even more damage ecosystem.  ...and considering SE would be pocket change to MS it could absolutely happen.   sony needs to be defensive as much as offensive with their aquisitions.

[SWORDF1SH]

Surely MS's TT acquisition will be blocked. On the other hand, Sony can point to MS being allowed to aquire ABK and Bethesda if there is an opposition to a TT acquisition.  I don't think Sony would make an attempt for TT but might in response to the ABK acquisition. Still it's unlikely Sony would make an attempt to aquire TT but would be a power move if they did.

[kitler53]

In today's economy that's massive but take two would also have to want to be acquired. Given their massive franchises on multiplatform it's doubtful. Wouldn't Sony have to go through the same as ms is doing now with Activision?

given that MS aquired a publisher as big as SE and a publisher 10x bigger than SE i don't see how sony could be denied the acquisition.   the CMA specifically said ABK had no issues on the console side only the cloud side.   apparently regulators don't care in the least about industry consolidation.

also take two is a publicly traded company so a hostile take over is pretty much always possible.    the current evaluation is 23 billion so any buyer would need to exceed that price by at least some margin.    their peak price was about a 30% premium from here so something like 30 billion would likely be accepted by stock holders.

[the-pi-guy]

I think buying square is the stupidest idea ever.

They are mismanaged, they aren't the best developers, and the biggest point is that square needs Sony a lot more than Sony needs square. If MS buy square and out their games exclusive on Xbox they are gonna die. There is little risk of Xbox buying square for that reason.

MS has at least twice had stuff about acquiring Square Enix.

I think you're greatly overestimating how much Square needs Sony. They have tons of games on PC, Switch and Mobile.

MS has made it clear that they want a Japanese publisher.

given that MS aquired a publisher as big as SE and a publisher 10x bigger than SE i don't see how sony could be denied the acquisition.   the CMA specifically said ABK had no issues on the console side only the cloud side.   apparently regulators don't care in the least about industry consolidation.

Regulators don't care about consolidation. They don't care if there are 4 or 8 publishers. They would likely take issue if an acquisition would lead to there only being two console makers, as they had an issue with Arm being acquired by Nvidia.  

[Dr. Pezus]

given that MS aquired a publisher as big as SE and a publisher 10x bigger than SE i don't see how sony could be denied the acquisition.   the CMA specifically said ABK had no issues on the console side only the cloud side.   apparently regulators don't care in the least about industry consolidation.

also take two is a publicly traded company so a hostile take over is pretty much always possible.    the current evaluation is 23 billion so any buyer would need to exceed that price by at least some margin.    their peak price was about a 30% premium from here so something like 30 billion would likely be accepted by stock holders.

Yeah I dont think SE would be an issue, I meant TT there. Making GTA exclusive would surely turn some heads.

[kitler53]

Yeah I dont think SE would be an issue, I meant TT there. Making GTA exclusive would surely turn some heads.

for GTA a "10 year" deal is literally 1 game. 

[the-pi-guy]

Sony could likely buy Take Two, but that would be pretty unlikely.

Obviously Sega/Square Enix would not be as good. But they are substantially cheaper.

[BananaKing]

like MS cares,..  hurting sony is more important to them then anything else.   it would transition all SE exclusives from ps to xbox and make ps and even more damage ecosystem.  ...and considering SE would be pocket change to MS it could absolutely happen.   sony needs to be defensive as much as offensive with their aquisitions.

The ABK deal didn't go through without scrutiny, and other MS buys will likely get more attention. And they have shareholders to answer too. If they go and buy square for 10 billion and then they that investment goes to shame, it won't go down easily. The ABK makes sense at least.

[Legend]

https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/ftc_gov/pdf/608644.2023.09.25_d09412_-_order_returning_matter_to_adjudication.pdf

FTC is still fighting it.

And in related news, I still can't believe how dumb fanboys are. No, Microsoft buying Activision is not equivalent to Sony having an exclusive character in the Avengers game.

[the-pi-guy]

scoop: Microsoft is planning to finalize its $68.7 billion proposed acquisition of Activision Blizzard next week. Microsoft is currently eyeing up Friday October 13th... unlucky for some.

Details here ???? https://t.co/h9Wjox8i63 pic.twitter.com/iNPc7kENIB

— Tom Warren (@tomwarren) October 6, 2023

[Legend]

Spooky

[nnodley]

Playing with fire MS. Let's hope the deal crashes and burns cause of it. heheh

[the-pi-guy]

Microsoft's $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard is set to avoid another EU probe, edging the gaming industry’s biggest ever deal even closer  — as soon as Britain’s antitrust regulator gives the green light https://t.co/zcxuon0iaG

— Bloomberg UK (@BloombergUK) October 11, 2023

[the-pi-guy]

Things are getting pretty close.
Most people are expecting the CMA to approve this week, and then MS to close early next week at this point.  

It's kind of funny, I was expecting this to last all the way till October (or worse). And a few people insisted to me that things were going to make a super fast turn around, and it might even make it back in August.

Well here we are and I get the last laugh.