Bet: Will the Activision Deal close? - It has closed

[the-pi-guy]

Unlike the CMA these regulators seem really stupid and ignorant based off some of the quotes, but the decision makes sense. Xbox is so much smaller in the rest of Europe.

It's fascinating to me seeing people call the CMA or the EC "stupid and ignorant".  

[Legend]

It's fascinating to me seeing people call the CMA or the EC "stupid and ignorant".  

I guess I worded it poorly since I didn't call the EC stupid and ignorant. They come across as stupid and ignorant based off some of the quotes, but those are just a few quotes and their decision makes sense.

It has been funny seeing fanboys going after the institutions themselves, calling for them to be dissolved or what not. Microsoft themselves even briefly argued that the FTC itself was unconstitutional.

[Horizon]

The problem with EU is encompasses a lot of different countries. Some countries are at the forefront of tech like Germany and Scandavania but then you have the likes of Italy,Spain and Eastern Europe. The UK is far more connected to the internet than any other country in the EU and would be aware of cloud gaming far more than the EU. The CMA is right to call out the EU as the remedies are only a temporary remedy and do not really alleviate Microsoft's potential dominance.

There's a part of me that's wondering if MS will bully the UK and get their way....

I'm pretty sure better governments have failed against smaller companies...  

Would be seen as admission of weakness from the UK. Would make it seem like any big corporation could walk all over the UK.

[BananaKing]

You guys really think MS would try bully the UK? This is a country bruh. I dont know much about these mergers and such. But it would be insane if a corporation tried to bully publicy. Also its not like these guys sell guns or oil.

[the-pi-guy]

You guys really think MS would try bully the UK? This is a country bruh. I dont know much about these mergers and such. But it would be insane if a corporation tried to bully publicy. Also its not like these guys sell guns or oil.

We already have the president of Microsoft is basically low key threatening to invest elsewhere.

It's the darkest day in our four decades in Britain," Smith said. It shook the company's confidence in Britain as a place to grow a technology business, he said, and would "not help" decisions about future investments in the country.

I'm not saying it's a huge threat, but it certainly seems like something.

Would be seen as admission of weakness from the UK. Would make it seem like any big corporation could walk all over the UK.

You say that, and yet historically it's not uncommon. Oil companies walk over most governments.

[Legend]

You guys really think MS would try bully the UK? This is a country bruh. I dont know much about these mergers and such. But it would be insane if a corporation tried to bully publicy. Also its not like these guys sell guns or oil.

Hasn't Microsoft already tried to bully publicly? Calling the UK "closed for business" and such?

It's pretty normal though. It's just about increasing awareness so potentially other people in power with different opinions might speak up. Blue Origin did the same thing in America recently. They lost a $6 billion launch contract so they went through the proper channels and appealed. Once that appeal failed, they did a big pr campaign to try and convince senators that they needed to step in and "correct" things.

[kitler53]

of course a company will attempt to bully a country to get what they want.  happens all the time.  sometimes it's threats and sometimes it bribes but:
1. with great power comes great influence.

...and isn't that kind of the problem.   a company like MS is soo big and powerful a country like the UK could be ruined if MS wanted to really threaten them.  imagine if MS pulled MS office and azure.  the economic chaos on the UK would be enormous.   so since they are big and powerful instead our governments cave and let them become even bigger and even more powerful.

freedom can only happen when power is fractured.   any time any entity (a person, a party, a company,..  whatever) has near total control it is bad for everyone.  it's why the CMA was specifically tasked with reigning in big tech in the first place so we'll see if they are able to hold to their guns.   ..but the few statements i've seen from the UK government side should makes it look like they could be willing to cave-in if MS bullies them a bit more.

[Horizon]

y

We already have the president of Microsoft is basically low key threatening to invest elsewhere.

I'm not saying it's a huge threat, but it certainly seems like something.
You say that, and yet historically it's not uncommon. Oil companies walk over most governments.

You're comparing small and poor nations to the UK. A country which is among the biggest in Europe and in top 7 world economies. The ramifications of bullying a country of that measure would be monumental. The UK is an important ally of the US is so many areas such as AUKUS, trade, military etc that threatening it is not conducive.  The Biden administration would be wise to let MS know threatening a country like the UK over a video game company would not be prudent.

[the-pi-guy]

y

You're comparing small and poor nations to the UK. A country which is among the biggest in Europe and in top 7 world economies. The ramifications of bullying a country of that measure would be monumental. The UK is an important ally of the US is so many areas such as AUKUS, trade, military etc that threatening it is not conducive.  The Biden administration would be wise to let MS know threatening a country like the UK over a video game company would not be prudent.

The kind of threat that the US would respond to would be like national security stuff. Like leaking classified documents or bombing the UK or something. No one is talking about that.

Big companies have plenty of ways of pushing countries to get what they want. Lobbying, marketing to get public support.

I don't know what countries you are thinking of, I was talking about the US. The US government loves giving things to big companies.

The kind of bullying that we are talking about, is stuff that MS is pretty much already doing.

[darkknightkryta]

The question is, will the board/shareholders, leave Satya in charge if he costs the company multiple tens of billions of dollars(pulling out of UK), just so they can spend another 80 billion dollars on a franchise they'll run into the ground and not make money off of, if ever?

[BananaKing]

The uk GDP is 3.1 trillion. Microsoft annual revenue is 200 billion. Thats worldwide. You really think Microsoft pulling out of UK would hurt UK more or Microsoft more?

Shareholders would riot over MS pulling all their business outside of UK for the sake of this deal

[Legend]

The uk GDP is 3.1 trillion. Microsoft annual revenue is 200 billion. Thats worldwide. You really think Microsoft pulling out of UK would hurt UK more or Microsoft more?

Shareholders would riot over MS pulling all their business outside of UK for the sake of this deal

Plus many countries would immediately move away from using Microsoft products.

It's such a non starter lol. Microsoft will not pull out of the UK.

[BananaKing]

Plus many countries would immediately move away from using Microsoft products.

It's such a non starter lol. Microsoft will not pull out of the UK.

Imagine what would happen to them if they pulled all their cloud, office, and windows support from the UK. They would lose hundreds of billions in the long run.

These countries can be bought, but they arent bullied. And the notion that a company like Microsoft can bully them seems very ridiculous to me. They arent weapons manufacturers, banks or oil companies. They are no way on that level

[the-pi-guy]

Deal was approved in China.

The remaining countries are:

- Canada
- Australia
- New Zealand
- Turkey
- South Korea
- South Africa

Israel, India, Argentina, Mexico or Colombia could be other possibilities, but nothing official about them yet.

From the remaining ones I think that Australia could surprise us (everyone else is likely or very likely to approve it). But the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) suspended the process in September, it's very anti behavioural remedies and has been in the same wavelength as the CMA during the last 2-3 years. In addition, xCloud is available in Australia and COD is quite relevant in the market.

A decision can be appealed to the Australian Competition Tribunal, including new information and evidence. So, it's not like the CMA.

But it's going to be very interesting to see what happens with the ACCC.

Idas on Era

[the-pi-guy]

Just looked at the Era thread...

Uh.  


There was a blog and a Twitter account that are run by the same guy. Both of which were posted a lot in the Era thread. He supposedly has 30 years industry experience as an activist and then analyst. He was shared a lot in the Era thread.  

And he's gone totally unhinged.



I'm going to share some of his posts without links.

No one who is neutral about the ABK deal uses a "tongue" smiley (see the attached screenshot) when talking about the deal being allegedly on life support and gloating about how long it may take to overcome such obstacles as the FTC (which is not even legally correct).

Idas has something serious to hide given the copy&paste from a non-public document that I've been made aware of.

I can only encourage people not to be gullible. There are all sorts of people on ResetEra besides Idas who claim to be lawyers, and they very well may be, but why do they hide their identity? Why can't they just reveal it like
@HoegLaw
 does? Or Luke Steele? Or Michael Pachter?

Idas did not set up that ResetEra forum thread just to inform the gamer community. There was an agenda from the beginning, and now there is an indication as to whose agenda it is.

If the identity of that anonymous forum poster named Idas was revealed, it could be a major scandal.

I've received information that rules out the possibility of "Idas" being neutral, independent, and not involved with the case. Has been astroturfing against the ABK deal.


"Idas" has been pretending from the beginning to be neutral, but in fact been seeking to manipulate public opinion against the chances of the ABK transaction going through.

That's the problem with people doing anonymous posts. One may agree or disagree with Facebook's insistence on people using real names, but in such a high-stakes high-profile context as ABK, it is very problematic when people try to influence opinions massively without revealing their identity.

The institutional scandal would also involve potential violations of the terms of service of such services as MLex (and not only them) and/or copyright law.

Given the sensitivity of what I've learned, I want to be careful and not name a particular organization, and obviously if someone has access to a document from organization A, it might have been shared by organization B.

It is, to say the least, clear why "Idas" never revealed and never will reveal their identity. If it happened, the consequences could be serious.

The guy is literally tweeting doxx threats against someone on a gaming forum.