Sony Q3 FY2020 - PS5 4.5M (Matches PS4 Launch), PS4 1.4M (114.9M LTD), Spider-Man MM 4.1M Sell-Through

Started by Xevross, Feb 03, 2021, 11:16 AM

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Xevross

#1
Feb 03, 2021, 11:19 AM
Biggest revenue quarter ever for a gaming business, obviously that's fantastic. On track for a $3B+ profit for playstation this fiscal year despite a new console launch, amazing.

PS5 matches PS4 launch in the end. Given the challenges of COVID affected all parts of the production and supply chain and 7nm being limited, I'd say that's pretty good.

That's also a good start for Spidey, hopefully legs will be strong as it continues to sell with new PS5s and it can make it past 10M.

BananaKing

#2
Feb 03, 2021, 02:40 PM
Good for PS5
Horrible for PS4
Great for spiderman

Insane for profitability, which is what Sony cares about the most. We knew this FY was going to be insane. But hitting 3B in profits in one FY is crazy business. And shows why Sony isn't pushing got a gamepass type business model.

4.1 for spiderman in two months is great. Its not a full game. But its easily on its way towards 10 million. The spiderman games have now sold 24m+. This deal is printing money for both Sony and marvel

kitler53

#3
Feb 03, 2021, 03:27 PM
Quote from: BananaKing on Feb 03, 2021, 02:40 PMGood for PS5
Horrible for PS4
Great for spiderman

Insane for profitability, which is what Sony cares about the most. We knew this FY was going to be insane. But hitting 3B in profits in one FY is crazy business. And shows why Sony isn't pushing got a gamepass type business model.

4.1 for spiderman in two months is great. Its not a full game. But its easily on its way towards 10 million. The spiderman games have now sold 24m+. This deal is printing money for both Sony and marvel

these consoles are competing for resources to be built and sony is just prioritizing their future on the manufacturing side.  its  not like i can just waltz into any store and buy a ps4 these days.   it is also completely sold out everywhere just like ps5 and switch and series XS and xbox one.
         

Featured Artist: Emily Rudd

kitler53

#4
Feb 03, 2021, 03:34 PM

Quote$113.89 on average on PS Store (Games/DLC/MTX)




A pretty important number if you ask me.    and i'm going to point it out once again,.. the average consumer spends far less than $180 a year on games in a year.  gamepass is upside down from netflix where many consumers massively decreased the amount of money they spent on content when they dropped cable.
         

Featured Artist: Emily Rudd

Xevross

#5
Feb 03, 2021, 03:51 PM
Quote from: kitler53 on Feb 03, 2021, 03:34 PMA pretty important number if you ask me.    and i'm going to point it out once again,.. the average consumer spends far less than $180 a year on games in a year.  gamepass is upside down from netflix where many consumers massively decreased the amount of money they spent on content when they dropped cable.
Yeah, although that doesn't include physical sales. But digital ratio is >50%, physical is usually cheaper and that $114 average includes DLC and MTX, which is 2/5s of this total revenue.

So $68.4 average on buying games digitally with a 53% digital ratio gives an estimate of total $130 spend by PS players on buying games. Add the $46 back in and it's a total spend of $176 per user including all MTX and DLC.

The problem is game pass doesn't give you any MTX and ultimate only gives you select DLCs. So it's more spend for the average player and then you still have to spend more for more content. And you still have to buy some games that aren't on game pass.

So yeah, here's the receipts, you are right.

the-pi-guy

#6
Feb 03, 2021, 03:56 PM
Quote from: kitler53 on Feb 03, 2021, 03:34 PMA pretty important number if you ask me.    and i'm going to point it out once again,.. the average consumer spends far less than $180 a year on games in a year.  gamepass is upside down from netflix where many consumers massively decreased the amount of money they spent on content when they dropped cable.
Some points of agreement and disagreement:

For:
- DLC/MTX would mean they are likely spending far less on games, so gamepass has a higher bar to pass for value.
- against point 2 below: GP wouldn't include all the third party games. If you're the CoD, AC gamer, you're not going to be getting all your games. So GP value is lower. 

Against:
- that number doesn't include PS+ revenue, which GP can roll in XBL. So the bar becomes that much lower. 
- it also doesn't include physical games, which make up about half of the attach rate.  So you could be looking at something like $217.78 as a more reasonable average. (Edit: Xev has the numbers)

Neutral:
- none of this says anything about the distribution. If 90% of gamers are buying one game a year and the other 10% are buying piles of them, GP wouldn't be appealing to 90% of gamers.  If it's a normal distribution around the average, then the math probably works out.

kitler53

#7
Feb 03, 2021, 04:30 PM
Quote from: the-Pi-guy on Feb 03, 2021, 03:56 PMSome points of agreement and disagreement:

For:
- DLC/MTX would mean they are likely spending far less on games, so gamepass has a higher bar to pass for value.
- against point 2 below: GP wouldn't include all the third party games. If you're the CoD, AC gamer, you're not going to be getting all your games. So GP value is lower.  

Against:
- that number doesn't include PS+ revenue, which GP can roll in XBL. So the bar becomes that much lower.  
- it also doesn't include physical games, which make up about half of the attach rate.  So you could be looking at something like $217.78 as a more reasonable average. (Edit: Xev has the numbers)

Neutral:
- none of this says anything about the distribution. If 90% of gamers are buying one game a year and the other 10% are buying piles of them, GP wouldn't be appealing to 90% of gamers.  If it's a normal distribution around the average, then the math probably works out.

The tie ratio for ps4 is 11.    i have about 400 ps4 games.  the number of other ps4 owners that need to buy only 1 game a year for 6 years to average out my library to the ps4's tie ratio is about 40.
         

Featured Artist: Emily Rudd

the-pi-guy

#8
Feb 03, 2021, 04:40 PM
Quote from: kitler53 on Feb 03, 2021, 04:30 PMThe tie ratio for ps4 is 11.    i have about 400 ps4 games.  the number of other ps4 owners that need to buy only 1 game a year for 6 years to average out my library to the ps4's tie ratio is about 40.
(75 people *6 games/people+400 games)/(75 people+1 people)=11.18 games/people

kitler53

#9
Feb 03, 2021, 04:57 PM
Quote from: the-Pi-guy on Feb 03, 2021, 04:40 PM(75 people *6 games/people+400 games)/(75 people+1 people)=11.18 games/people

oops.  i found the error in my formula.  yes.  75 people.

regardless,.. the distribution is not "normal" is my point.  the distribution is bimodal:



a lot of low consumption users and a few really high consumption users.
         

Featured Artist: Emily Rudd

Legend

#10
Feb 03, 2021, 05:29 PM
PS4 will be so close to my 120 mil prediction from the start of the gen!

PS5 doing good too. Lots o money.

the-pi-guy

#11
Feb 03, 2021, 05:39 PM
QuoteSelect Sony Entertainment M&A:
Awal - $430mm / February 2021 (Sony Music)
Crunchyroll - $1.2bn / December 2020 (Sony Pictures/Sony Music)
Pureflix Entertainment - Undisclosed / November 2020 (Sony Pictures)
Eleven Films - Undisclosed / June 2020 (Sony Pictures)
Whisper Films - Undisclosed / February 2020 (Sony Pictures)
Silvergate Media - $195mm / December 2019 (Sony Pictures)
Game Show Network - $380mm (+$130mm in dividends/earnouts) / November 2019 (Sony Pictures)
Insomniac Games - $229mm / November 2019 (Sony Interactive Entertainment)
Manga Entertainment - Undisclosed / May 2019 (Sony Pictures/Sony Music)
EMI - $3.7bn / May 2018 (Sony Music)
Peanuts (Charlie Brown) - $178mm / May 2018 (Sony Music)
Funimation - $143mm / July 2017 (Sony Pictures)


https://www.resetera.com/threads/sony-we-aim-to-make-more-investements-for-growth-that-we-did-during-the-current-mid-range-plan.372615/

kitler53

#12
Feb 03, 2021, 05:51 PM
         

Featured Artist: Emily Rudd

Xevross

#14
Feb 03, 2021, 07:33 PM
Quote from: the-Pi-guy on Feb 03, 2021, 03:56 PMSome points of agreement and disagreement:

For:
- DLC/MTX would mean they are likely spending far less on games, so gamepass has a higher bar to pass for value.
- against point 2 below: GP wouldn't include all the third party games. If you're the CoD, AC gamer, you're not going to be getting all your games. So GP value is lower. 

Against:
- that number doesn't include PS+ revenue, which GP can roll in XBL. So the bar becomes that much lower. 
- it also doesn't include physical games, which make up about half of the attach rate.  So you could be looking at something like $217.78 as a more reasonable average. (Edit: Xev has the numbers)

Neutral:
- none of this says anything about the distribution. If 90% of gamers are buying one game a year and the other 10% are buying piles of them, GP wouldn't be appealing to 90% of gamers.  If it's a normal distribution around the average, then the math probably works out.

@ your against points, so you're saying the average PS spend doesn't include PS+. That's true. So there's 114m MAUs for Sony, 47.4m PS+ subs. PS+ is $60 for a year, so the "average" spend here is $25, actually probably less because YAU would be higher. Add this onto my estimate earlier you get a total spend for average PS user of pretty much dead on $200, so we can say ~$200 is a good rounded estimate.

Game Pass Ultimate costs $180, so it would "save" $20 for the average gamer. Except, like I said before, that $200 average spend includes games, DLCs and MTX that Game Pass doesn't cover, so it would only save the average gamer money if they only spent money on game pass and cut everything else out. If we're looking at just the money spent on what game pass covers, its probably a lot lower, so buying game pass would be a net increase in spend for the average gamer.

This is why I think xbox are working on it as a big gaming proposition, putting lots of games on there to say to people, okay this is costly and you'd spend more but you'd get access to way more games than normal and all these big games on day 1 rather than having to wait. That's their big push.

And @ your neutral, I was thinking about this before and I think what you mention first is right. The average number of games a person gets for a system is about 10, but we know there's people who get hundreds (me for example I have way over 100 PS4 games that Sony would probably count in their software sales). This means it is quite likely to be weighted downwards, with the median being lower than the mean. It might not be 90/10, but it will be skewed against the direction xbox would want. The "average" gamer here is not the median gamer, you probably have to only get the top quarter of spenders to reach the average, which for a sub service is not a good thing.
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