November 2015 NPD - PS4 1.539m, Xb1 1.296m, 3DS 350k, WiiU 240k, Some SW Up

[Rorono]

2M WW
So 17.5M xD

[ethomaz]

I don't think they will sell 1.2m this Decemver in US.

[the-pi-guy]

I don't think they will sell 1.2m this Decemver in US.

It's up (very slightly) in November, why do you expect a big drop for December?

[Dr. Pezus]

I don't think they will sell 1.2m this Decemver in US.

Didn't they sell like 1.4m last year or something? It now has good deals again at $299. I think it'll at least match Nov

[the-pi-guy]

November 2014
XBO  - 1.23m

November 2015
XBO - 1.296m  UP!  

December 2014
XBO - 1.29m

December 2015
XBO -

[Dr. Pezus]

Yeah so maybe 1.2-1.4m

[ethomaz]

The deal last year happened full December... they are late this year and PS4 is at $299 too.

Let's see what happens.

[Dr. Pezus]

The deal last year happened full December... they are late this year and PS4 is at $299 too.

Let's see what happens.

The deals in November were also nothing special compared to last year + PS4 had crazy deals compared to last year, yet it was slightly up

[ZhugeEX]

Hello all,

The Xbox One install base has been a topic of discussion for quite some time now as Microsoft have refused to update us on the situation since the end of 2013 when they confirmed a total of install base of 3 million. The last official sell in figure we have from Microsoft is that they were approaching 10 million unit sales towards the end of November and Satya Nadella confirmed that they had exceeded this number in early December.

Unfortunately sites like VGChartz use "guesstimates" to come to an exact figure and parade it around as if it is official data. One thing I've learnt is that VGChartz data is highly inaccurate. I could write a thesis on how their data drastically differs to official data, I'm not entirely sure how they work but they seem to use sampling methods in order to work out exact numbers (which isn't how that should work) and then also use publicly available data to fill in gaps or correct their mistakes. For example, this month it was clear that VGChartz were not accurate on PlayStation 4 hardware sales in the U.S. and Fallout 4 software sales in the U.S. either. Those are just two examples of many inaccuracies with VGChartz U.S. data this month. So just imagine how inaccurate their data is outside the U.S. and for prior months/years.

There are official market research companies out there such as IDG who compile accurate sell through data and release reports to clients along with forecasts for the consoles over the next year/5 years. IHS are another such company who earlier this year put out a statement that the Xbox One install base is on track to sell through around 20 million units by the end of 2015. Of course this is a forecast so the actual result can vary.

If we are to look at all publicly available data between November 22nd 2013 and November 28th 2015 then we would be able to see that the Xbox One install base has to be over an absolute minimum of 12.9 million. This includes a total of 9.8 million unit sales in the U.S. for the full period, more than 1.6 million unit sales from the UK as of June 2015, more than 420,000 from France as of December 2014, another 380,000 from Germany as of March 2015, 80,000 from Spain as of June 2015 and a further 610,000 units from nine tier 1 countries in 2013.

Now keeping in mind that the above does not include sales for a further 38 countries in 2014 and 2015 as well as half a years sales for the UK, Spain and Germany + a full year of sales in France. I think it is fairly safe to assume that the Xbox One has sold well over 13 Million units to end users as of November 28th 2015. Now when you remember that nine tier 1 countries sold through 610,000 units in 2013 then you can safely assume they will have sold well over that in 2014 and 2015 which tells me that when you add in tier 2 countries, the half year sales from the UK & Spain and the full year sales from Germany and France then it's clear to see that Xbox One sales will be considerably over 13 million.

I don't really want to make an exact estimate because that would make me no better than VGChartz, but hopefully the above data will help show some people that 13 million is an absolute baseline and the real total will be much more.

[Cute Pikachu]

I think it'll be flat with November.

HOLY SHOT CAN IT BE!?!
Welcome!!

[Dr. Pezus]

Hello all,

The Xbox One install base has been a topic of discussion for quite some time now as Microsoft have refused to update us on the situation since the end of 2013 when they confirmed a total of install base of 3 million. The last official sell in figure we have from Microsoft is that they were approaching 10 million unit sales towards the end of November and Satya Nadella confirmed that they had exceeded this number in early December.

Unfortunately sites like VGChartz use "guesstimates" to come to an exact figure and parade it around as if it is official data. One thing I've learnt is that VGChartz data is highly inaccurate. I could write a thesis on how their data drastically differs to official data, I'm not entirely sure how they work but they seem to use sampling methods in order to work out exact numbers (which isn't how that should work) and then also use publicly available data to fill in gaps or correct their mistakes. For example, this month it was clear that VGChartz were not accurate on PlayStation 4 hardware sales in the U.S. and Fallout 4 software sales in the U.S. either. Those are just two examples of many inaccuracies with VGChartz U.S. data this month. So just imagine how inaccurate their data is outside the U.S. and for prior months/years.

There are official market research companies out there such as IDG who compile accurate sell through data and release reports to clients along with forecasts for the consoles over the next year/5 years. IHS are another such company who earlier this year put out a statement that the Xbox One install base is on track to sell through around 20 million units by the end of 2015. Of course this is a forecast so the actual result can vary.

If we are to look at all publicly available data between November 22nd 2013 and November 28th 2015 then we would be able to see that the Xbox One install base has to be over an absolute minimum of 12.9 million. This includes a total of 9.8 million unit sales in the U.S. for the full period, more than 1.6 million unit sales from the UK as of June 2015, more than 420,000 from France as of December 2014, another 380,000 from Germany as of March 2015, 80,000 from Spain as of June 2015 and a further 610,000 units from nine tier 1 countries in 2013.

Now keeping in mind that the above does not include sales for a further 38 countries in 2014 and 2015 as well as half a years sales for the UK, Spain and Germany + a full year of sales in France. I think it is fairly safe to assume that the Xbox One has sold well over 13 Million units to end users as of November 28th 2015. Now when you remember that nine tier 1 countries sold through 610,000 units in 2013 then you can safely assume they will have sold well over that in 2014 and 2015 which tells me that when you add in tier 2 countries, the half year sales from the UK & Spain and the full year sales from Germany and France then it's clear to see that Xbox One sales will be considerably over 13 million.

I don't really want to make an exact estimate because that would make me no better than VGChartz, but hopefully the above data will help show some people that 13 million is an absolute baseline and the real total will be much more.

Welcome and thanks for the post!

Yeah, I do think that 20m prediction will end up a bit high although it shouldn't end up that far from it (maybe ~18-19m). Obviously, this is mostly guesswork too but imo there are some signs that VGC is systematically overestimating XB1 outside the US. It would be awesome if MS could just give us a definite number for shipments and/or sell-through.

[ethomaz]

Thanks @ZhugeEX

These absolute minimum 13m is indeed too low for what it sold in my opinion... it is way ahead that... I just don't believe they are over 16m yet.

I guess GFK will share a lot of year sales in January so we will can estimate better.

[Rorono]

The deals in November were also nothing special compared to last year + PS4 had crazy deals compared to last year, yet it was slightly up

Hm? Free COD in 1st week, free game of choice in 3rd week. 240 system at Target, 270 at Walmart, on BF. X1's December deals in 2014 were actually better (gift cards everywhere!) than in November and its weekly average went down (only up~50k with an extra week). Last November had the benefit of having the actual drop boost happen on it, but other than that there were no deals until BF, unlike this November. I'm not saying it won't be up but it's too soon to say that it will. So far, I'd say no, but I'll commit to a prediction closer to the end of the month.

[Raven]

Hello all,

The Xbox One install base has been a topic of discussion for quite some time now as Microsoft have refused to update us on the situation since the end of 2013 when they confirmed a total of install base of 3 million. The last official sell in figure we have from Microsoft is that they were approaching 10 million unit sales towards the end of November and Satya Nadella confirmed that they had exceeded this number in early December.

Unfortunately sites like VGChartz use "guesstimates" to come to an exact figure and parade it around as if it is official data. One thing I've learnt is that VGChartz data is highly inaccurate. I could write a thesis on how their data drastically differs to official data, I'm not entirely sure how they work but they seem to use sampling methods in order to work out exact numbers (which isn't how that should work) and then also use publicly available data to fill in gaps or correct their mistakes. For example, this month it was clear that VGChartz were not accurate on PlayStation 4 hardware sales in the U.S. and Fallout 4 software sales in the U.S. either. Those are just two examples of many inaccuracies with VGChartz U.S. data this month. So just imagine how inaccurate their data is outside the U.S. and for prior months/years.

There are official market research companies out there such as IDG who compile accurate sell through data and release reports to clients along with forecasts for the consoles over the next year/5 years. IHS are another such company who earlier this year put out a statement that the Xbox One install base is on track to sell through around 20 million units by the end of 2015. Of course this is a forecast so the actual result can vary.

If we are to look at all publicly available data between November 22nd 2013 and November 28th 2015 then we would be able to see that the Xbox One install base has to be over an absolute minimum of 12.9 million. This includes a total of 9.8 million unit sales in the U.S. for the full period, more than 1.6 million unit sales from the UK as of June 2015, more than 420,000 from France as of December 2014, another 380,000 from Germany as of March 2015, 80,000 from Spain as of June 2015 and a further 610,000 units from nine tier 1 countries in 2013.

Now keeping in mind that the above does not include sales for a further 38 countries in 2014 and 2015 as well as half a years sales for the UK, Spain and Germany + a full year of sales in France. I think it is fairly safe to assume that the Xbox One has sold well over 13 Million units to end users as of November 28th 2015. Now when you remember that nine tier 1 countries sold through 610,000 units in 2013 then you can safely assume they will have sold well over that in 2014 and 2015 which tells me that when you add in tier 2 countries, the half year sales from the UK & Spain and the full year sales from Germany and France then it's clear to see that Xbox One sales will be considerably over 13 million.

I don't really want to make an exact estimate because that would make me no better than VGChartz, but hopefully the above data will help show some people that 13 million is an absolute baseline and the real total will be much more.

A wild Zhuge has appeared! Welcome to the forums! What or who in the world brought you to our dark corner of the internet?

[Cute Pikachu]

Soon we will encompass charts to be the 3rd biggest gaming forum!
Next after that neogaf and finally reddit.