VGChartz.com global sales updates

[Rorono]

Ok bear with me. This is just some math based on some of the data we have, to be taken with a grain of salt due to mixing direct sources with indirect (VGC)

X1's US sales seem to hover around 60% of the system's total sales.
If the data about shipments hitting 10M early Dec and sold through reaching 10M in the first days of 2015 (or last of 2014) is correct, that'd place it the US LTD numbers at 6M. It was 5.25M after November NPD, so that'd be 750k sales for December, quite a big drop off. However, on the other hand, if we go by my idea that X1 is overtracked at VGC outside of the US (which it would have to be, for the above numbers to make sense), that'd actually raise the US ratio of sales. Maybe to 65%. This way, US LTD would be 6.5M, representing 1.25M console sold in Dec NPD

For PS4 the ratio seems (VGC) to be 37%. 37% of 18.5M is 6.85M. PS4 LTD in US after November NPD was 5.9M. So that'd be 900k consoles sold in Dec NPD.
Of course, a lot of things can skew the real numbers. So..who knows.

Either way I guess I predict a big range for X1, somewhere between 750k and 1.25M
And a smaller one for Ps4, 800k-1M


edit: doing the PS4 numbers differently... it sold ~5.5M units WW in Nov+Dec. ~800k in November NPD. So how much left in Dec NPD in order to reach 37% of 5.5M? 1.7M. But that's an insane number for NPD..don't find it possible. Maybe US ratio went down thanks to xmas sales in EU and other regions

The main flaw here is ratio variances in specific periods, of course. Could change things up a bit. But i don't think i can reach better predictions than these with current data


more rambling edits:  We know Ps4 outsells X1 WW. Now.. if X1 managed even as high as 80% (don't see it being higher) of the PS4's sales in the holiday period, that's 4.4M. For US numbers, 60% of that is 2.64M. 65% is 2.86M. That's either 1.4M or 1.66M for December NPD. Also too high though.

maybe both actually came close to 1.4 or 1.5M? That'd be kinda crazy.

[ethomaz]

In line with matching the Wii?

It will be a little less than Wii but really close... less than 1 million difference.

[Dr. Pezus]

In line with matching the Wii?

Wii was 20.14m so basically the same

[Rorono]

I just noticed that if PS3 SW surpasses Wii (definitely will) and 360 (maybe), the 3 top spots of SW will be the three playstations. And surely at some point PS4 will go up to #4 at the end of the generation

[Dr. Pezus]

I just noticed that if PS3 SW surpasses Wii (definitely will) and 360 (maybe), the 3 top spots of SW will be the three playstations. And surely at some point PS4 will go up to #4 at the end of the generation

PS4 will become #2 probably

[Max King of the Wild]

I just read a comment of someone saying ps4 peaked already and will drop yoy and will sell like the ps3 lifetime. So... 9more years it will sell less than 10m a year.

[Rorono]

I just read a comment of someone saying ps4 peaked already and will drop yoy and will sell like the ps3 lifetime. So... 9more years it will sell less than 10m a year.

at VGC?

[Raven]

I just read a comment of someone saying ps4 peaked already and will drop yoy and will sell like the ps3 lifetime. So... 9more years it will sell less than 10m a year.

Wow. No successful console, as far as I know, ever peaked in its first year and to believe that the PS4 won't be successful is to be having an affair with delusion. At this point it would take a miracle, in the eyes of the other fanbases, for PS4 to not be successful. So this person believes that a price drop won't suddenly make sales higher? That a $300 PS4 wouldn't sell more for the year? That the large number of exclusive titles coming for it won't increase sales compared to last year? Uncharted 4 alone makes the 2015 Holidays look stronger for PS4 than 2014's was.

[Max King of the Wild]

at VGC?

Yeah, the thread hasn't been commented on in a day or two so it's a bit down the list but it's in someone's ps4 will sell 38m thread

[Rorono]

That is truly delusional.

[Max King of the Wild]

Wow. No successful console, as far as I know, ever peaked in its first year and to believe that the PS4 won't be successful is to be having an affair with delusion. At this point it would take a miracle, in the eyes of the other fanbases, for PS4 to not be successful. So this person believes that a price drop won't suddenly make sales higher? That a $300 PS4 wouldn't sell more for the year? That the large number of exclusive titles coming for it won't increase sales compared to last year? Uncharted 4 alone makes the 2015 Holidays look stronger for PS4 than 2014's was.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6980749

[Dr. Pezus]

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6980749

"the ps4 didn't even outperform the wii in its first full year "
EH, no console has ever outperformed Wii in its first year, yet PS2 sold 60m more than Wii lol.

[Rorono]

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6980749

Gold
"Ps4 just peaked" is the best part.

[darkknightkryta]

"the ps4 didn't even outperform the wii in its first full year "
EH, no console has ever outperformed Wii in its first year, yet PS2 sold 60m more than Wii lol.

I think Sony might have if they manufactured more at launch.  I think November/December at launch, Sony could have sold over 10 million.  They just went with conservative sales.  Though I see the PS4 averaging 15 million per year for 6 years.

[7H3]

I like seece exponentialy times more than kowenicki.

but 0^9999999999... is still 0