Will MS change the Gamepass model?

[the-pi-guy]

The cinematic industry seems to be coming around more and more to the idea of releasing movies in theaters first and then coming to streaming services afterwards.

Mr. Zaslav argues that making a movie that will only live on a streaming service is a waste of resources. Movies that have a theatrical release—even those that didn't perform strongly at the box office—do better on the HBO Max platform. "There's an ecosystem of economic return when you open something in the theaters," he said during an analyst conference last November

"We're going to rebalance a bit because those linear channels and movie theaters...still can provide us with a significant amount of monetization capability," Mr. Iger said in February on an earnings call.

As it stands Gamepass doesn't follow that model. Games are available day 1. But how sustainable is that?

Will we see a change to where Xbox games are $70 first, and then Gamepass later?

[kitler53]

will we, I dunno.  would MS make a hell of a lot more money if they delayed the release on gamepass by at least 6 months, hell yeah.

[Legend]

I don't think movies and games are directly comparable in this situation. Just too many differences with how movies are consumed and how games are consumed.

[the-pi-guy]

I don't think movies and games are directly comparable in this situation. Just too many differences with how movies are consumed and how games are consumed.

They're surely not.

But with Kitler's concerns that the model isn't sustainable, it might make sense to somewhat make a pivot towards a launch first model, and then keep everything on Gamepass a couple months after launch or something.

[Legend]

They're surely not.

But with Kitler's concerns that the model isn't sustainable, it might make sense to somewhat make a pivot towards a launch first model, and then keep everything on Gamepass a couple months after launch or something.

I think it devalues gamepass far too much. A movie releasing in theaters does not hurt its streaming debut, but a 6 month old game is bargain bin unless it was a massive hit. Plus Microsoft makes a lot of multiplayer games and those would need simultaneous launches anyway or else they'll struggle with player counts.

[kitler53]

I think it devalues gamepass far too much. A movie releasing in theaters does not hurt its streaming debut, but a 6 month old game is bargain bin unless it was a massive hit. Plus Microsoft makes a lot of multiplayer games and those would need simultaneous launches anyway or else they'll struggle with player counts.

Is my math wrong?  Did GOW not make more money than MS does on all of gamepass?   ...and still got millions of gamers to upgrade to extra anyways?  

I think its the other way 'round,.. gamepass devalues MS first party too much.  

[Legend]

Is my math wrong?  Did GOW not make more money than MS does on all of gamepass?   ...and still got millions of gamers to upgrade to extra anyways?  

I think its the other way 'round,.. gamepass devalues MS first party too much.  

Gamepass has 20-30 million subscribers and costs $120+ a year. I don't think GOW made more.

Also MS first party kinda sucks. If Halo Infinite skipped gamepass for its first 6 months, do you think that would have made them more money? It'd flop at $60 and have no hype left once it joined gamepass.

[the-pi-guy]

Gamepass has 20-30 million subscribers and costs $120+ a year. I don't think GOW made more.

Also MS first party kinda sucks. If Halo Infinite skipped gamepass for its first 6 months, do you think that would have made them more money? It'd flop at $60 and have no hype left once it joined gamepass.

Wait until Starfield and CoD.  

[kitler53]

Gamepass has 20-30 million subscribers and costs $120+ a year. I don't think GOW made more.

Also MS first party kinda sucks. If Halo Infinite skipped gamepass for its first 6 months, do you think that would have made them more money? It'd flop at $60 and have no hype left once it joined gamepass.

halo infinate f2p mp was free with or without gamepass and as a f2p game that makes sense.

if the halo infinite campaign had been pay to play for 6 months before going to gamepass halo infinite would probably have made about 10x more money than it did.


and lol at gamepass getting $120 a year for all those users.   gold is already $60 so that cuts the revenue of gamepass in half and i huge portion of those 20-30 million years did the $1 upgrade from gold for 3 years.

[Legend]

halo infinate f2p mp was free with or without gamepass and as a f2p game that makes sense.

if the halo infinite campaign had been pay to play for 6 months before going to gamepass halo infinite would probably have made about 10x more money than it did.


and lol at gamepass getting $120 a year for all those users.   gold is already $60 so that cuts the revenue of gamepass in half and i huge portion of those 20-30 million years did the $1 upgrade from gold for 3 years.

$2.9 billion is the semi official revenue stat for gamepass in 2021, matching $120 a year * 20-30 million users.

Halo Infinite would have sold less than half of what Halo 5 sold in its first few months. Every 343 game has sold significantly worse as fans lose hope, multiplayer fans could skip it, and patient gamers would consider waiting for gamepass (only to eventually not bother since the game was so underwhelming). That's ~2 million at $60, or less than a month of gamepass revenue.

I'm not a fan of the gamepass model and I think a 6 month exclusivity window isn't the right change to fix it.

Wait until Starfield and CoD.  

True. One year of those and then they'll raise the gamepass price.

[kitler53]

$2.9 billion is the semi official revenue stat for gamepass in 2021, matching $120 a year * 20-30 million users.

Halo Infinite would have sold less than half of what Halo 5 sold in its first few months. Every 343 game has sold significantly worse as fans lose hope, multiplayer fans could skip it, and patient gamers would consider waiting for gamepass (only to eventually not bother since the game was so underwhelming). That's ~2 million at $60, or less than a month of gamepass revenue.

I'm not a fan of the gamepass model and I think a 6 month exclusivity window isn't the right change to fix it.
True. One year of those and then they'll raise the gamepass price.

even if only 2 million that still $120 million which is $120 million more than MS has today.   personally I think gamepass subscriptions would have 0 impact by having a policy of 6-months after release vs 1-day.   sony's got a ton of subscribers with an even worse policy of "who knows if any of their games ever come to the service and even if they do they could leave at any time".    but forza was able to get millions of sales just offering a 3-day early release.  at 6-months realistically no one would drop their subscription but MS would get a ton more money out of their biggest fanatics.