What are your crazy predictions for 2021?

[the-pi-guy]

This might be a terrible idea, as I just came up with it.  So feel free to recommend rule changes.


Here are the ground rules:
There are 3 categories of predictions:
1.) Insane
2.) Very Unlikely
3.) Unlikely

Getting an insane prediction right will give you a 1,000 points.  
Very Unlikely is 100 points.
Unlikely is 10 points.

You are the one to initially put predictions in categories. You're free to change your categorization at any time unless there's a disagreement*.  

If two people disagree with you about how unlikely something is, then you will have to change your prediction's likeliness.

Example scenario:
Pi's Insane: MLB the show 23 will come to Xbox.  
Legend and Xev: that's already been announced, no way that isn't happening.  
Ok Pi's Insane: MLB the show will come to Xbox.

*If someone disagrees with you, and you have to change your categorization or even eliminate your prediction, you can't go back and change it.  



Good topics for predictions:
- acquisitions
- release dates for long awaited games
- a game unexpectedly coming to a platform.
- unexpected game release

[nnodley]

For me to release a game!  

[Legend]

Obvious: E3 will not happen and will never happen again  

Unlikely: Epic buys a major studio.

Very Unlikely: Switch 2 releases this holiday with BOTW 2. It has significant changes and is comparable to the DS->3DS transition.

Insane: Beyond good and Evil 2 gets shadow dropped during the next Ubisoft show.

[nnodley]

i'll think up some legit stuff later. lol

[Xevross]

Insane: Hapax will release

[the-pi-guy]

I'm going to mention a couple things:
I know the prediction categories stuff is hazy.  

It'll be hazy because we don't know what the odds of anything weird like MS buying Bethesda would have been.  So that's where the discussion aspect comes in.

The rules are fairly open. You have some amount of freedom to making modifications to the point values.  As long as two people don't disagree.

If you want to make a prediction that a game will release on some date, you can add some caveats like you will lose 10 percentage points for every month you are off.  

If that makes people feel better.  

[Legend]

Insane: Hapax will release

Hmmm. Do I continue as planned and let you win 1,000 points or do I cancel the game and make you lose?

This is a tough one.

[Xevross]

Hmmm. Do I continue as planned and let you win 1,000 points or do I cancel the game and make you lose?

This is a tough one.

Honestly seems like a tough decision that one, pretty much 50/50.

Lol, guess I'll think of some serious answers.

[the-pi-guy]

You guys are already having fun with this, that's the most important thing.

[the-pi-guy]

Insane:
Tencent buys Take Two

Very Unlikely:
MS buys Sega
Sony buys Square Enix. 

Unlikely:
Sony announces buying Bluepoint in the next 2 months.

[Legend]

You guys are already having fun with this, that's the most important thing.

Insane: Sony buys BP. No, the other BP.

[Xevross]

Insane:
MS buys Sega
Sony buys Square Enix.  
Tencent buys Take Two

Very Unlikely:


Unlikely:
Sony announces buying Bluepoint in the next 2 months.

I wouldn't say any of those are insane given the state of the industry. Very unlikely describes those perfectly to me. Maybe the Take Two one is insane, they're huge.

And idk if the Bluepoint one is unlikely when we have a reputable insider saying the end of this month is when they heard the announcement will be. Although I'll give you that that seems to be old info that they don't think has changed but they don't know it hasn't, and Sony seems to constantly be delaying announcements internally right now. So its kind of close, its not likely but not unlikely either

[DerNebel]

Unlikely: I will learn to fly

[the-pi-guy]

I wouldn't say any of those are insane given the state of the industry. Very unlikely describes those perfectly to me. Maybe the Take Two one is insane, they're huge.

And idk if the Bluepoint one is unlikely when we have a reputable insider saying the end of this month is when they heard the announcement will be. Although I'll give you that that seems to be old info that they don't think has changed but they don't know it hasn't, and Sony seems to constantly be delaying announcements internally right now. So its kind of close, its not likely but not unlikely either

I submit to these changes.  

I think BP in the next two months is worth 10 unlikely points.