Movie Thread

Xevross · May 04, 2019, 01:32 PM

Hmmm ~$40.8M dom friday for Endgame, only +90% from an already slightly meh thursday, which is well below IW's +103% (which was already considered low). Huge saturday needed now, but TFA's dom record looks safe regardless.

Avatar WW still very much a toss up, since Endgame legs are clearly looking worse than IW's now. Yesterday was a lot lower than I thought for OS-C as well, as it seems they were adjusting up previous day numbers and the day was more like $41m instead of $50m. So legs are worse than IW pretty much everywhere, and IW legs got Endgame to just shy of $3b. Avatar's $2.78b is gonna be a fun race.

the-pi-guy · May 04, 2019, 02:48 PM

Figures that Endgame would be especially front loaded.

Based off the 10 day chart, it looks like we can expect 513m to be somewhere between 60% and 70% of the total. (And wow, Avatar is quite in a league of its own. )
60% would put Endgame at 855m domestic.
70% would put Endgame at 732m.

Second place seems like a safe bet.

Xevross · May 04, 2019, 02:56 PM

Quote from: the-Pi-guy on May 04, 2019, 02:48 PMFigures that Endgame would be especially front loaded.

Based off the 10 day chart, it looks like we can expect 513m to be somewhere between 60% and 70% of the total. (And wow, Avatar is quite in a league of its own. )
60% would put Endgame at 855m domestic.
70% would put Endgame at 732m.

Second place seems like a safe bet.

Oh yeah 2nd place Dom is 100% confirmed, avatar ww is the only target now.

Xevross · May 04, 2019, 04:24 PM

$40.7M dom, $88.2M OS for $128.9M friday for Endgame. OS-C is $52.4M, up 39% from IW. Overseas looking decent then. Domestic still set for easily #2 of all time $850m+

Total should be $2.165b+ after the weekend worldwide, meaning WW-C is at $1.59b+, well clear of my $1.5b target. If that estimate holds then Endgame looks all set to overtake Avatar. If Titanic ($2.187b) is down after Sunday's numbers then that basically confirms Avatar will go down at some point in the future too, how poetic.

the-pi-guy · May 04, 2019, 04:54 PM

Quote from: Xevross on May 04, 2019, 04:24 PM$40.7M dom, $88.2M OS for $128.9M friday for Endgame. OS-C is $52.4M, up 39% from IW. Overseas looking decent then. Domestic still set for easily #2 of all time $850m+

Total should be $2.165b+ after the weekend worldwide, meaning WW-C is at $1.59b+, well clear of my $1.5b target. If that estimate holds then Endgame looks all set to overtake Avatar. If Titanic ($2.187b) is down after Sunday's numbers then that basically confirms Avatar will go down at some point in the future too, how poetic.

Spoiler for Hidden:

Legend · May 04, 2019, 05:19 PM

Quote from: the-Pi-guy on May 04, 2019, 02:48 PMFigures that Endgame would be especially front loaded.

Based off the 10 day chart, it looks like we can expect 513m to be somewhere between 60% and 70% of the total. (And wow, Avatar is quite in a league of its own. )
60% would put Endgame at 855m domestic.
70% would put Endgame at 732m.

Second place seems like a safe bet.

Avatar was the movie that got me really interested in tracking the box office.

It's funny because I remember at the time a big talking point was that Avatar didn't have nearly the same legs as Titanic. Amongst movies gunning for the all time record, it was viewed as fairly frontloaded.

Now it's seen as an abnormal monster that just kept going lol. Social media and the internet really pushes people to see a movie as fast as possible. Fans have always tried to go asap (side note but I really miss midnight openings) but now spoilers and fomo push even more people into the opening weekend. Endgame will definitely keep its opening records for a long time but I wouldn't be surprised if within 10 years we have a film that beats its opening day but falls behind its first week.

Xevross · May 04, 2019, 08:18 PM

Quote from: Legend on May 04, 2019, 05:19 PMAvatar was the movie that got me really interested in tracking the box office.

It's funny because I remember at the time a big talking point was that Avatar didn't have nearly the same legs as Titanic. Amongst movies gunning for the all time record, it was viewed as fairly frontloaded.

Now it's seen as an abnormal monster that just kept going lol. Social media and the internet really pushes people to see a movie as fast as possible. Fans have always tried to go asap (side note but I really miss midnight openings) but now spoilers and fomo push even more people into the opening weekend. Endgame will definitely keep its opening records for a long time but I wouldn't be surprised if within 10 years we have a film that beats its opening day but falls behind its first week.

Yeah films are much more frontloaded on average now, but even back then Titanic and Avatar were freaks of nature with their legs. Titanic was crazier, which is why Avatar had weaker legs in comparison, but Avatar was still nuts. Titanic opening % of total was 4.8%, Avatar 10.3% domestically. The normal for big grossers around 2009 was 25-35%.

Endgame's legs are very short, especially for a very well received film, but this is what happens when there's a big push to go early to avoid spoilers.

Avatar holds the record for fastest to $2b, 47 days. Endgame is gonna smash that with 11 days taken. (interestingly, 11 days was the old record for reaching $1bil

)

Domestically, IW had made 66.9% of its gross by the end of its second weekend. I think for Endgame that's gonna be more like 70%. Estimating $620M total after the weekend, that's a ~$885M total gross for Dom, which would still be amazing and clearly in second place. Adding China would make that ~1.5B total, then $1.28B OS-C would be needed for Avatar, which is only +20% from IW when it should be +30% at least. Avatar still looking good.

the-pi-guy · May 04, 2019, 08:44 PM

Quote from: Legend on May 04, 2019, 05:19 PMAvatar was the movie that got me really interested in tracking the box office.

It's funny because I remember at the time a big talking point was that Avatar didn't have nearly the same legs as Titanic. Amongst movies gunning for the all time record, it was viewed as fairly frontloaded.

Now it's seen as an abnormal monster that just kept going lol. Social media and the internet really pushes people to see a movie as fast as possible. Fans have always tried to go asap (side note but I really miss midnight openings) but now spoilers and fomo push even more people into the opening weekend. Endgame will definitely keep its opening records for a long time but I wouldn't be surprised if within 10 years we have a film that beats its opening day but falls behind its first week.

Aye.
You can kind of see this effect on this chart:
Longest Top Ranking Movies at the Weekend Box Office

Not a definitive chart on the matter, but it's still striking how many of the movies that stayed at number 1 for the most weeks are from before the 2000's.

I think I see in the top 30 movies only has 2 from this millennium.

You can check Titanic's chart and it's still making million dollar weekends like 8 months after release. When I don't know of any that are even running in theaters that long.

Dr. Pezus · May 05, 2019, 12:39 AM

Just saw it and it was thoroughly amazing!

The pure scope of it, just wow.

Xevross · May 05, 2019, 12:03 PM

Sat heading for $61.5M or +51%, that's a bit better although only 3% higher than IW's bump. Let's see what Sunday brings. TFA's 2nd weekend record is $149m, this is looking to hit that right on the nose, a 58% drop from its ridiculous OW is not bad at all really.

Xevross · May 05, 2019, 03:47 PM

Disney went for $145.8M dom estimate, $2.189B global total after the weekend. That's $1.613B without China, Avatar is going down.

Also now #2 film of all time.

the-pi-guy · May 05, 2019, 07:17 PM

Quote from: Legend on May 04, 2019, 05:19 PMAvatar was the movie that got me really interested in tracking the box office.

On the note of Avatar. People keep mentioning that it had no real impact on pop culture.
And it's really weird.

Look up Avatar memes, and you get the nickelodeon TV show.
Even if you specify the movie, you don't get a lot of memes... And still some memes from the TLA show.

I don't really hear people quoting the movie.

Xevross · May 05, 2019, 08:11 PM

Quote from: the-Pi-guy on May 05, 2019, 07:17 PMOn the note of Avatar. People keep mentioning that it had no real impact on pop culture.
And it's really weird.

Look up Avatar memes, and you get the nickelodeon TV show.
Even if you specify the movie, you don't get a lot of memes... And still some memes from the TLA show.

I don't really hear people quoting the movie.

Yeah Avatar had no lasting impact in pop culture for sure, it was a huge influencer for hollywood though. This is why Avatar 2 is so unpredictable, there seems to be no hype for the sequel at all but loads of people could just turn up for it like they did the first films in cinemas.

Legend · May 05, 2019, 09:20 PM

Quote from: the-Pi-guy on May 05, 2019, 07:17 PMOn the note of Avatar. People keep mentioning that it had no real impact on pop culture.
And it's really weird.

Look up Avatar memes, and you get the nickelodeon TV show.
Even if you specify the movie, you don't get a lot of memes... And still some memes from the TLA show.

I don't really hear people quoting the movie.

Avatar didn't have a lot of merchandise or tie ins. Outside of the mediocre game, it really was just a film. It's hard for something to really impact popular culture when there is nothing new happening. I loved the movie and saw it a bunch but as a fan there just wasn't any way to interact with it. The closest thing I remember was an Avatar forum that focused on cataloguing all the worldbuilding into essentially a wiki.

The only significant thing that lasted is that people sometimes make Avatar jokes instead of smurf jokes when they see blue people. Avatar cosplay happens a fair amount too I guess.

It also didn't help that the counterculture developed pretty quickly. Avatar is talked about a lot online but almost always its just in the form of arguments between people that liked it and people that didn't like it.

Quote from: Xevross on May 05, 2019, 08:11 PMYeah Avatar had no lasting impact in pop culture for sure, it was a huge influencer for hollywood though. This is why Avatar 2 is so unpredictable, there seems to be no hype for the sequel at all but loads of people could just turn up for it like they did the first films in cinemas.

I'm really excited to see the first trailer for the sequel. It really needs to match the original's feeling of "raising the bar." An avatar sequel exactly like the first would probably do ok but it would blend in with most 2020 movies. Instead the sequel needs to once again redefine what is possible. Underwater motion capture will be cool but the movie needs more tricks than just that and 60 fps.

It also helps that this time around there's more potential to grow it as a franchise. The Avatar theme park section is megapopular, the upcoming Ubisoft game should be much better, and the third film should be right around the corner. Plus Disney could be a better partner for selling merchandise.

The movie really is unpredictable. So much potential but the devil is in the details. Child actors and worse acting could make it flop.

Xevross · May 05, 2019, 09:29 PM

Quote from: Legend on May 05, 2019, 09:20 PMAvatar didn't have a lot of merchandise or tie ins. Outside of the mediocre game, it really was just a film. It's hard for something to really impact popular culture when there is nothing new happening. I loved the movie and saw it a bunch but as a fan there just wasn't any way to interact with it. The closest thing I remember was an Avatar forum that focused on cataloguing all the worldbuilding into essentially a wiki.

The only significant thing that lasted is that people sometimes make Avatar jokes instead of smurf jokes when they see blue people. Avatar cosplay happens a fair amount too I guess.

It also didn't help that the counterculture developed pretty quickly. Avatar is talked about a lot online but almost always its just in the form of arguments between people that liked it and people that didn't like it.

I'm really excited to see the first trailer for the sequel. It really needs to match the original's feeling of "raising the bar." An avatar sequel exactly like the first would probably do ok but it would blend in with most 2020 movies. Instead the sequel needs to once again redefine what is possible. Underwater motion capture will be cool but the movie needs more tricks than just that and 60 fps.

It also helps that this time around there's more potential to grow it as a franchise. The Avatar theme park section is megapopular, the upcoming Ubisoft game should be much better, and the third film should be right around the corner. Plus Disney could be a better partner for selling merchandise.

The movie really is unpredictable. So much potential but the devil is in the details. Child actors and worse acting could make it flop.

Absolutely, and I love Avatar so I'm very much looking forward to tracking it and seeing how well it does. I won't mind at all if it overtakes Endgame, in fact I'd be happy as records being broken is always cool.

Avatar was so far ahead of its time in terms of CGI and SFX, if they raise the bar by that much again then it will do very well for sure. Its just so hard to judge how much of Avatar's performance came from the 3D craze at the time, which has now clearly died down. But maybe Avatar 2 could do something similar with a newer premium format. Also Avatar had much more favourable exchange rates, it would have made more like $2.3B if it released today.

At this point I really wouldn't be shocked if Avatar 2 made anything $1-3.5B kind of range.

Also all this Avatar talk is making me wanna rewatch it again, I haven't seen it in about 2 years I think.