Movie Thread

[Xevross]

I probably made mistakes with inputting numbers or equations.

Did this in a hurry, while eating.


This is assuming it follows a similar trend to the following movies.

           

Star Wars	350000000	Black Panther	350000000	Infinity War	350000000	Average	350000000	Min	350000000	Max	350000000
-33.8	405806600	-33.2	406312400	-64.3	380095100	-43.7667	397404700	-64.3	380095100	-33.2	406312400
-6.9	457762544.6	-48.1	435538536	-5.3	408595159.7	-20.1	435281055.3	-48.1	395714456.9	-5.3	459640242.8
1.8	510653696.2	-29.6	456113735	-27.6	429229202.9	-18.4667	466162910.3	-29.6	406710484.2	1.8	513927986.8
-27.9	548788216.5	-3	497675638	-8.6	471095676.6	-13.1667	526372233.7	-27.9	426503333.2	-3	624077819.3
80	617430353.1	102	566335902	102.9	533225523.6	94.96667	612391286.9	80	449265109.6	102.9	806045342.6
15	696368810.1	65.2	617350477	48.4	581997453.5	42.86667	678023824.6	15	466177109.5	65.2	948889848.4
-23.9	756440975.9	-25.7	668365053	-21.5	630769383.3	-23.7	743656362.2	-25.7	483089109.4	-21.5	1091734354

TFA and BP are unrealistic. Hopefully it follows IW pretty closely and does a bit better.

[Xevross]

Sunday 92-94, Disney went way under.

[the-pi-guy]

Did this quick again, so very well could have made errors.  (Lets say it's not my most thorough work...)  (Even though I should be working on other stuff.  : )

Used just Avengers and Infinity War. 

More realistic. 

$598 million on the low end for next weekend, $670 million on the high end.

This would still be about $60 million ahead of TFA on the low end.  Still massive. 
       


Excel did something weird, fixed the chart:

Avengers	360,000,000	Infinity War	360,000,000	Average	360,000,000	Min	360,000,000	Max	360,000,000
-66.9	391114000	-64.3	393558000	-65.6	392336000	-66.9	391114000	-64.3	393558000
-6.5	420205590	-5.3	425337426	-5.9	422764176	-6.5	420205590	-5.3	425337426
-23	442606114.3	-27.6	448345730.4	-25.3	445494023.5	-27.6	441267901.2	-23	449807584
-9	462990591.4	-8.6	469375320.7	-8.8	466223644.4	-9	460434604.3	-8.6	472173308.5
135.8	511057188.4	102.9	512044359.3	119.35	511694067.8	102.9	499323845	135.8	524911686.7
46.8	581618952.9	48.4	575365212.6	47.6	578808412.8	46.8	556413250.4	48.4	603175439.9
-27.9	632493985.1	-21.5	625072082.4	-24.7	629345514.6	-27.9	597574711.6	-21.5	664612486.2

[Xevross]

Actuals in UK alone gone up £1.8m or over $2m. Aus is way up as well. Looking like it will be $1.23b+

[Xevross]

Updated estimate is $356m dom $1.222b WW opening. Weird to get a new estimate just before actuals but w/e

[Xevross]

Russia opens today, last market for Endgame to open. Endgame set a new all time opening day record by 6pm. Looks pretty good! Monday should be a great hold WW.

[Xevross]

Actuals:

Endgame is $357,115,007.
 
Daily Breakdown:
FRI: $157,461,641
SAT: $109,264,122 (-30.7%)
SUN: $90,389,244 (-17.3%)

The Avengers - 207M (first movie over 200)
Infinity War - 257M (first movie over 250)

Endgame - 357M (first movie over 300 and 350)

Perfectly balanced.

$32.2m is the taget for Monday for matching IW.

[the-pi-guy]

I know it's not going to happen, but I want it to hit 43m.  

Halving the time to reach $400m would be cool.  

[Xevross]

I know it's not going to happen, but I want it to hit 43m.  

Halving the time to reach $400m would be cool.  

Yeah it would be cool but that's like a 0.0001% chance. Really hoping for that $32.3m+ though.

[the-pi-guy]

2010:
3 movies above 500m. (Versus 12 today)
3 movies above 450m.  (Versus 14 today)
9? Movies above 400m. (Versus 30 today)

You'd think movies just hit their stride in the past few years.  

[Xevross]

2010:
3 movies above 500m. (Versus 12 today)
3 movies above 450m.  (Versus 14 today)
9? Movies above 400m. (Versus 30 today)

You'd think movies just hit their stride in the past few years. 

You'd think there's been some whack inflation

Also here's Captain Marvels box office the last 3 weekends: $8.6M, $9.1M, $8.3M.... I said dang.

Also this is fun:

TOP SINGLE DAY GROSSES

Rank	Title	Studio	Single Day Gross	Theaters	Average	Date	Gross-to-Date
1	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$157,461,641	4,662	$33,776	F 4/26/19	$157,461,641
2	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$119,119,282	4,134	$28,815	F 12/18/15	$119,119,282
3	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$109,264,122	4,662	$23,437	Sa 4/27/19	$266,725,763
4	Avengers: Infinity War	BV	$106,334,939	4,474	$23,767	F 4/27/18	$106,334,939
5	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$104,684,491	4,232	$24,736	F 12/15/17	$104,684,491
6	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	WB	$91,071,119	4,375	$20,816	F 7/15/11	$91,071,119
7	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$90,389,244	4,662	$19,389	Su 4/28/19	$357,115,007
8	Avengers: Age of Ultron	BV	$84,424,532	4,276	$19,744	F 5/01/15	$84,424,532
9	Avengers: Infinity War	BV	$82,131,612	4,474	$18,358	Sa 4/28/18	$188,466,551
10	Jurassic World	Uni.	$81,953,950	4,274	$19,175	F 6/12/15	$81,953,950

If Thursday previews weren't counted then Endgame would hold all of the top 3 spots.

[Xevross]

Monday $38-40m

DOMESTIC AND WORLDWIDE RECORDS HERE COME

Edit: the two main BOT guys have basically said it could be anywhere $36-43m given its very hard to predict with unprecedented high presales for a monday... high end of that would be unbelievable, low end would still be really great. Let's see.

[the-pi-guy]

43 million almost there!?  

C'mon peeps watch more movie!  

[Xevross]

43 million almost there!?  

C'mon peeps watch more movie!  

Nah, 37-39 is the range now

Think one guy just said it would be 43 high end following a normal trend but the presales being so high means its almost impossible to follow that normal trend.

[Xevross]

Infinity War did $60.3M overseas on its first monday. Endgame weekend was up 39.6% from IW in like-for-like markets, so we're looking for $84.2M overseas figure today to match IW drop. That's not counting China or Russia for Endgame which came in at $19m and $7m respectively, so $110.2M+ overseas total for Monday is the golden ticket... here's hoping.

shame if it does that then that's a ~$150M monday worldwide, what the actual fudge. Pretty sure best Monday WW right now is Infinity War's $85M first monday.

Also that $7m opening day in Russia for Endgame is great by the way, +50% on Infinity War. And that's the last market to launch for Endgame.