Movie Thread

the-pi-guy · May 09, 2018, 08:50 PM

Quote from: Xevross on May 09, 2018, 08:17 PMYeah well that explains it. As a musical fan I found it extremely disappointing, most of my friends agree.

Makes sense.
I like Phantom of the Opera, but not really as a movie. I enjoy the music.

I think I'll watch The Greatest Showman, when I got the time. *checks watch* So hopefully sometime in the next few years. Ugh.

Xevross · May 09, 2018, 09:00 PM

Quote from: the-Pi-guy on May 09, 2018, 08:50 PMMakes sense.
I like Phantom of the Opera, but not really as a movie. I enjoy the music.

I think I'll watch The Greatest Showman, when I got the time. *checks watch* So hopefully sometime in the next few years. Ugh.

Phantom is okay. I haven't watched it in ages though so I can't remember it that well.

Legend · May 09, 2018, 09:05 PM

Quote from: Xevross on May 09, 2018, 07:53 PMWould you guys consider yourselves musical fans in general?

What do you think of Les Miserables, Hamilton, Wicked, Annie style musicals and then film musicals like Mamma Mia?

I loved Wicked and the book of mormon.

Film musicals are also great. Paint your wagon, Annie get your gun, white christmas, easter parade, my fair lady, seven brides for seven brothers, fiddler on the roof, singing in the rain, mame, south pacific, oklahoma, etc. are all fun. (I watch too many musicals)

nnodley · May 09, 2018, 09:24 PM

Finally saw black panther! Such a good marvel movie. Probably one of my favorites.

Xevross · May 10, 2018, 02:07 PM

Seems like the wheels are falling off IW's China opening slightly. Its not accelerating in pre-sales as fast as expected, so it seems like its going to fall short of the $230-270m OW it was heading for. Still looks pretty good for taking the record with $200m+ though. This just makes 2bn WW look more difficult.

the-pi-guy · May 10, 2018, 04:09 PM

At the risk of Xev yelling at me...

Nah, he won't yell at me for this.

Spoiler for Hidden:

Now Xev will yell at me.

Spoiler for Hidden:

Xevross · May 10, 2018, 04:23 PM

Quote from: the-Pi-guy on May 10, 2018, 04:09 PMAt the risk of Xev yelling at me...

Nah, he won't yell at me for this.

Spoiler for Hidden:
Black Panther and Infinity War are pretty similar domestically.
IW : BP

1 106,335 75,941
2 82,132 65,995
3 69,232 60,067
4 24,740 40,152
5 23,426 20,857
6 16,967 14,688
7 15,501 14,253
8 31,454 28,790
9 46,677 47,553
10 36,644 35,315
11 8,284 8,098
12 10,673 10,204

Ignoring the first 4 days, Infinity War and Black Panther have a very similar trajectory. It's actually really impressive how close they are.
After the first 4 days, the furthest they are is somewhere around 15% difference.
After the first 6 days, the furthest is around 10% difference.
The past few days it's been less than a 5% difference. It'll be pretty cool to see how well this trend holds. Best case, it'll hold until Black Panther gets the Infinity War bump.

Domestically, this seems like the best comparison to see how well the movie will do.

Now Xev will yell at me.
Spoiler for Hidden:
One thing I love about Boxofficemojo is that they have all these different comparisons. They don't care if I want to compare all the movies in the Marvel Cinematic universe. [see next spoiler]
They don't care if I want to compare the biggest openers. I can compare it to TFA, TLJ, Jurassic World. Whatever else. [see the next next spoiler]

Spoiler for Hidden:
If you read the previous spoiler, you know what's coming.
That's right. Ant man comparison.
IW : AM

1 106,335 22,649
2 82,132 19,465
3 69,232 15,111
4 24,740 6,403
5 23,426 7,853
6 16,967 5,120
7 15,501 4,707
8 31,454 7,253
9 46,677 9,853
10 36,644 7,804
11 8,284 3,323
12 10,673 4,265

You can bet your apple, I giggled while making this chart. IW beat Ant Man's total in just the first weekend. You can see from the chart just how bad Ant Man was.
Wow Ant Man sucks.

A more interesting comparison:
IW : Avengers
1 106,335 80,814
2 82,132 69,558
3 69,232 57,067
4 24,740 18,899
5 23,426 17,677
6 16,967 13,613
7 15,501 12,392
8 31,454 29,224
9 46,677 42,906
10 36,644 30,923
11 8,284 7,924
12 10,673 8,478
Actually a pretty decent comparison. Think it really shows how far the franchise has came.

Spoiler for Hidden:
Now if you read 2 spoilers ago, you know what's coming. That's right, this is where we compare big dogs for no reason.

Days Star Wars: TLJ Star Wars: TFA Jurassic World Avengers: IW
1 104,684 119,119 81,954 106,335
2 63,993 68,294 69,645 82,132
3 51,332 60,553 57,207 69,232
4 21,556 40,110 25,345 24,740
5 20,254 37,362 24,343 23,426
6 16,890 38,022 19,895 16,967
7 17,892 27,396 17,823 15,501
8 24,763 49,326 29,114 31,454
9 29,172 56,732 39,112 46,677
10 17,630 43,146 38,362 36,644
11 27,460 31,362 11,566 8,284
12 27,734 29,529 13,130 10,673

Jurassic World is kind of (ish) similar to IW.
My favorite part about this comparison is it shows just how stupidly huge TFA was. That movie was a monster beyond all reckoning.

IW's first 3 days were insane, by any measure.

Yeah BP and IW have been running so close its awesome. IW's lead is pretty much all from the opening weekend (with BP's holiday monday cancelling out IW's higher first weekdays). I'm hoping they'll continue to be closely matched until next Thursday, when DP2 will undoubtedly cut away IW's legs. That would point to IW possibly making it to $700m. Its great that BP is the best comp right now, because the legs on BP were crazy good.

Not gonna yell at you for that, I love looking at all the BOM comparisons, even if they don't make much sense. That's because they usually select good films to compare it to

Lol well in raw numbers, it does show you how small Ant-Man was compared to IW. But comparing the relative drops/ holds is still a fun thing to do. Ant-Man is probably the most disappointing MCU film in terms of box office. #2 should be better.

Yeah, Avengers is a very good comparison. We've gotta hope that IW can hold above it for quite a while to come. If IW can keep its $80m lead when all is said and done, that would be fantastic.

The last one kind of demonstrates how big openers behave differently depending on circumstance. TFA and TLJ came out around the same time, yet TFA had much better WOM/ was much more liked by fans. Meanwhile TLJ was quite hated by fans. So TFA had phenomenal legs, while TLJ fell off a cliff after a couple of weeks. JW released in summer and had great WOM, which means weekdays are strong. There's more competition though, which limits its chance of making TFA kind of money. IW had insane hype, has great WOM but came out during schooltime, so it relies on the weekends more heavily. Since it was so hyped though, its legs compared to opening week won't be as big as something like JW.

Xevross · May 10, 2018, 04:27 PM

Speaking of IW, wednesday came in at 7.0m, so still above BP although the gap is narrowing. That's decent.

The real story is the overseas wednesday at 17.1m, I have no idea where that came from, it barely dropped at all from Tuesday. Overseas legs looking very nice for $1bn without China.

Xevross · May 10, 2018, 04:33 PM

Also, IW will fly past BP and take the #1 spot for the year with Friday numbers.

the-pi-guy · May 10, 2018, 04:45 PM

Quote from: Xevross on May 10, 2018, 04:23 PMNot gonna yell at you for that, I love looking at all the BOM comparisons, even if they don't make much sense. That's because they usually select good films to compare it to

I'm just teasing you about that.

Quote from: Xevross on May 10, 2018, 04:23 PMLol well in raw numbers, it does show you how small Ant-Man was compared to IW. But comparing the relative drops/ holds is still a fun thing to do. Ant-Man is probably the most disappointing MCU film in terms of box office. #2 should be better.

Ant Man is my favorite comparison. I was laughing the whole time making it.

Quote from: Xevross on May 10, 2018, 04:27 PMSpeaking of IW, wednesday came in at 7.0m, so still above BP although the gap is narrowing. That's decent.

Nice. That trend is looking sweet.

Xevross · May 10, 2018, 04:46 PM

Quote from: the-Pi-guy on May 10, 2018, 04:45 PMI'm just teasing you about that.
Ant Man is my favorite comparison. I was laughing the whole time making it.
Nice. That trend is looking sweet.

That's mean! Poor little Ant-Man, he tried his best.

the-pi-guy · May 10, 2018, 04:58 PM

Quote from: Xevross on May 10, 2018, 04:46 PMThat's mean! Poor little Ant-Man, he tried his best.

I liked the movie.

Dr. Pezus · May 10, 2018, 11:47 PM

I'm finally watching The Last Jedi

Xevross · May 11, 2018, 09:30 AM

Quote from: Dr. Pezus on May 10, 2018, 11:47 PMI'm finally watching The Last Jedi

Shock react.

Dr. Pezus · May 11, 2018, 12:10 PM

Quote from: Xevross on May 11, 2018, 09:30 AMShock react.

1	106,335	75,941
2	82,132	65,995
3	69,232	60,067
4	24,740	40,152
5	23,426	20,857
6	16,967	14,688
7	15,501	14,253
8	31,454	28,790
9	46,677	47,553
10	36,644	35,315
11	8,284	8,098
12	10,673	10,204

1	106,335	22,649
2	82,132	19,465
3	69,232	15,111
4	24,740	6,403
5	23,426	7,853
6	16,967	5,120
7	15,501	4,707
8	31,454	7,253
9	46,677	9,853
10	36,644	7,804
11	8,284	3,323
12	10,673	4,265

1	106,335	80,814
2	82,132	69,558
3	69,232	57,067
4	24,740	18,899
5	23,426	17,677
6	16,967	13,613
7	15,501	12,392
8	31,454	29,224
9	46,677	42,906
10	36,644	30,923
11	8,284	7,924
12	10,673	8,478

Days	Star Wars: TLJ	Star Wars: TFA	Jurassic World	Avengers: IW
1	104,684	119,119	81,954	106,335
2	63,993	68,294	69,645	82,132
3	51,332	60,553	57,207	69,232
4	21,556	40,110	25,345	24,740
5	20,254	37,362	24,343	23,426
6	16,890	38,022	19,895	16,967
7	17,892	27,396	17,823	15,501
8	24,763	49,326	29,114	31,454
9	29,172	56,732	39,112	46,677
10	17,630	43,146	38,362	36,644
11	27,460	31,362	11,566	8,284
12	27,734	29,529	13,130	10,673