Movie Thread

the-pi-guy · May 07, 2018, 06:11 PM

Quote from: Xevross on May 07, 2018, 05:51 PMAnd another is that TFA was a weird monster and shouldn't really be used for comparisons anyway

But you've been comparing it to TFA.

You just don't like me, that's what this is!

Xevross · May 07, 2018, 06:19 PM

Quote from: the-Pi-guy on May 07, 2018, 06:11 PMBut you've been comparing it to TFA.

You just don't like me, that's what this is!

I compared its opening weekend to TFA. That's fine, an opening weekend is an opening weekend no matter what kind of film it is. And in fact TFA is probably one of the best comps for IW's opening weekend. Mainly because raw numbers are the most important things for an OW.

Since then I've been comparing to Avengers and BP though. Avengers and Age of Ultron are the two best comps. And before it came out best case scenario seemed to be that IW would be somewhere between them (in terms of % changes), and that's how its turned out so far. Its just that for a while it was matching and even out-performing Avengers, so people had hopes for a huge $750m+ domestic run.

And its not just because those two are MCU films that they are the best comps. They are both non-holidays huge openers with quite a lot of hype. All other big openers had something like a 4-day weekend to inflate (like BP) or were in the holidays (TFA, TLJ, JW). Anything else was just too small an opening weekend to be comparable.

Its only if you go to proper box office forums/ sites that you'll know what comps are the best though. Like, if you were to guess what the best comp for Black Panther was, you wouldn't say Deadpool, but that's the answer.

the-pi-guy · May 07, 2018, 06:21 PM

I'm a big believer that you can compare whatever you want, as long as you understand what you are comparing.

I think you're starting to get a little silly about this.

the-pi-guy · May 07, 2018, 06:26 PM

I'm gonna start comparing it to Ant man.

Domestic (10 days)
Ant man: ~$106m
IW: ~$450m

Worldwide (total)
Ant man: $519,311,965
IW: $1,165,409,800

Poor Ant Man. Never stood a chance.

Xevross · May 07, 2018, 06:28 PM

TFA is a monster, also, because it simply had absolutely everything going for it. It had:

the hype around release, with lots of fans excited for a new star wars film
releasing right at the start of christmas holidays, so for its first few weeks there were schools off + general holiday bumps like boxing day, new years etc.
lack of any meaningful competition for quite a while after launch
general quality. Its a good film. So WOM was good.
fan pleaser. Most SW fans loved it so rewatched it quite a lot
Star Wars brand - of course this is a huge push in the domestic market, as well as in places like the UK, NZ and Australia (where it performed super well)

No other film has had all of those. Of course, TFA still make less than Titanic and Avatar worldwide, but I guess you can just explain that with two acronyms: JC and 3D.

Infinity War is missing two of those. Its not near any holidays and has significant upcoming competition. MCU brand is probably almost as big as SW brand in places like the US now, and is probably even bigger worldwide. Which is why IW is easily going to make a lot more than TFA overseas. Well actually the difference is pretty much just going to be China. China loves Avengers, quite likes the MCU in general and doesn't particularly care for Star Wars.

Quote from: the-Pi-guy on May 07, 2018, 06:21 PMI'm a big believer that you can compare whatever you want, as long as you understand what you are comparing.

I think you're starting to get a little silly about this.

Well sure but you'd have to list the caveats every time you do. With the Avengers films you just say better/ worse and you know what that means.

Quote from: the-Pi-guy on May 07, 2018, 06:26 PMI'm gonna start comparing it to Ant man.

Domestic (10 days)
Ant man: ~$106m
IW: ~$450m

Worldwide (total)
Ant man: $519,311,965
IW: $1,165,409,800

Poor Ant Man. Never stood a chance.

Lol, Ant Man isn't particularly interesting so you can understand this. I can't see the sequel improving too much either (although it will get a nice Avengers bump). And sure you can put the numbers up for the total gross and compare it to any film, but while its still running and making money it doesn't really say much. Like wow, Infinity War is a lot bigger than Ant-Man, who would have thought that?!?!

Xevross · May 07, 2018, 06:35 PM

Plus you were the one saying Avengers "sped up", which is why I started talking about proper comparisons. If you want to use terms like that you gotta know what you're talking about

because that 'speeding up' that you were talking about was actually more like slowing down compared to the films its performing similarly too. So instead of being impressive and speeding up for the weekend, it was actually slightly disappointing and heading down from where people expected given the weekday numbers.

That's like someone who doesn't know too much about Video Game sales saying "oh God of War dropped 35% in its second week in the UK despite being out for 7 days vs 2, that's terrible", yet we well know that 35% is an incredible drop.

the-pi-guy · May 07, 2018, 06:41 PM

Quote from: Xevross on May 07, 2018, 06:28 PMWell sure but you'd have to list the caveats every time you do. With the Avengers films you just say better/ worse and you know what that means.

I don't think you have to list the caveats every single time. If everyone understands the caveats, I think it's fine.

I think everyone here has a pretty good idea of the caveats, even if they aren't 100% familiar with "all" of them.

Quote from: Xevross on May 07, 2018, 06:28 PMLol, Ant Man isn't particularly interesting so you can understand this.

And yet, here I am making the comparison.

Quote from: Xevross on May 07, 2018, 06:28 PMI can't see the sequel improving too much either (although it will get a nice Avengers bump). And sure you can put the numbers up for the total gross and compare it to any film, but while its still running and making money it doesn't really say much. Like wow, Infinity War is a lot bigger than Ant-Man, who would have thought that?!?!

Well it's a good thing I made the comparison.

If I can't make silly comparisons, what's the point of me being in here!?

Xevross · May 07, 2018, 07:02 PM

Quote from: the-Pi-guy on May 07, 2018, 06:41 PMI don't think you have to list the caveats every single time. If everyone understands the caveats, I think it's fine.

I think everyone here has a pretty good idea of the caveats, even if they aren't 100% familiar with "all" of them.
And yet, here I am making the comparison.
Well it's a good thing I made the comparison.

If I can't make silly comparisons, what's the point of me being in here!?

You can, it just doesn't say much

Dr. Pezus · May 08, 2018, 12:57 AM

Stop fighting!!

Xevross · May 08, 2018, 01:14 PM

Quote from: Dr. Pezus on May 08, 2018, 12:57 AMStop fighting!!

We're not fighting, you're fighting!

Xevross · May 08, 2018, 01:30 PM

Monday is heading for about $8.5m according to Empire. That's still just above BP (which did 8.0 on second monday) so its pretty good. Hopefully it can match or beat BP until DP2 launches, which would make $650m+ dom quite secure.

China is ticking up even faster btw, but its still super hard to predict. What we can say for sure though is that IW's global second weekend ($275m) is going to be a lot less than its third, which is heading for $330m+

Dr. Pezus · May 08, 2018, 01:32 PM

Quote from: Xevross on May 08, 2018, 01:14 PMWe're not fighting, you're fighting!

the-pi-guy · May 08, 2018, 02:30 PM

So I saw the Mummy movie with Tom Cruise. Eh, it was okay.

Also saw part of Justice League. The cover threw me off because it looked like some kind of 1990's justice league movie.
I skipped a lot of the movie due to time on the plane, but I liked what I saw more than some of the other DC movies. There were a couple of great parts.

Spoiler for Hidden:

Legend · May 08, 2018, 03:55 PM

I saw all the money in the world. It's crazy how fast they were able to do the reshoots with Plummer. Only for one scene did they digitally replace Spacey. Really liked Plummer's acting.

Saw the shape of water. Was good. Liked the "bad guy." He was great.

Saw the greatest showman. Was good. Liked the music but it was also kinda odd how the music and dancing were so modern.

Saw Ladybird. Was good.

Saw I Tonya a couple weeks ago. Was good but had poor special effects.

the-pi-guy · May 08, 2018, 04:45 PM

Quote from: Legend on May 08, 2018, 03:55 PMSaw the greatest showman. Was good. Liked the music but it was also kinda odd how the music and dancing were so modern.

This reminds me of a thing I learned.
It's called the Tiffany problem. Tiffany sounds completely modern, yet it's actually a common medieval name.
Because it sounds so modern, the usage gets avoided in stories.