Predict sales of Sony's big 2018 hitters

Started by Dr. Pezus, Apr 09, 2018, 01:36 PM

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Dr. Pezus

#15
Apr 12, 2018, 02:17 PM Last Edit: Apr 12, 2018, 02:20 PM by Dr. Pezus
Quote from: Xevross on Apr 12, 2018, 01:51 PMMaybe I'd adjust mine slightly up but I think it seems about right.
Nah that's too crazy high. I don't think a Sony game has even sold 3m first week (except maybe a GT). I could see 4m, but any higher would be bonkers.
3m shipments definitely with GT5 I think.

GoW has always been huge in the US, where PS4 is now king. GoW I-II released at the tail end of the PS2 era so their sales are not a good barometer. GoWIII had a very big launch for a PS3 game (like 1.2-1.5m probably).

Heard it here first!


Uncharted 4 launched with like 2-2.5m retail only (consumer sales). Probably close to 3m with digital included (yup, 2.7m first week: http://www.ign.com/articles/2016/05/23/uncharted-4-sold-27-million-units-in-its-first-week).

Legend

#16
Apr 12, 2018, 02:46 PM
For comparison, Horizon Zero Dawn is still around the 6 million range.

Xevross

#17
Apr 12, 2018, 02:50 PM
Quote from: Dr. Pezus on Apr 12, 2018, 02:17 PM3m shipments definitely with GT5 I think.

GoW has always been huge in the US, where PS4 is now king. GoW I-II released at the tail end of the PS2 era so their sales are not a good barometer. GoWIII had a very big launch for a PS3 game (like 1.2-1.5m probably).

Heard it here first!


Uncharted 4 launched with like 2-2.5m retail only (consumer sales). Probably close to 3m with digital included (yup, 2.7m first week: http://www.ign.com/articles/2016/05/23/uncharted-4-sold-27-million-units-in-its-first-week).
Yeah I was basing mine off Uncharted 4. I expect God of War to do a bit better but not that much.

Quote from: Legend on Apr 12, 2018, 02:46 PMFor comparison, Horizon Zero Dawn is still around the 6 million range.
Horizon is way over 7 million, probably at 8 million by now. It was announced as 7.6m sell through 2 months ago!

Dr. Pezus

#18
Apr 12, 2018, 02:51 PM
Quote from: Legend on Apr 12, 2018, 02:46 PMFor comparison, Horizon Zero Dawn is still around the 6 million range.
Wut, nah it's already past 7.6m.

Horizon: Zero Dawn sales pass 7.6 million on its first birthday | GamesBeat

Legend

#19
Apr 12, 2018, 02:55 PM
Quote from: Xevross on Apr 12, 2018, 02:50 PMHorizon is way over 7 million, probably at 8 million by now. It was announced as 7.6m sell through 2 months ago!

Maybe I misheard them from the gdc talk.

But still I said AROUND!

the-pi-guy

#20
Apr 12, 2018, 02:57 PM
Horizon is also a freak of nature.  That's monstrous sales for a new IP, especially for GG.  

GoW almost certainly will be monstrous.  

Xevross

#21
Apr 12, 2018, 02:59 PM
Quote from: the-Pi-guy on Apr 12, 2018, 02:57 PMHorizon is also a freak of nature.  That's monstrous sales for a new IP, especially for GG.  

GoW almost certainly will be monstrous.  
Yeah it is, incredible sales. Should inch close to 10m when all is said and done. Sequel will be huge as well.

nnodley

#22
Apr 12, 2018, 11:09 PM
too lazy to do all the games right now, but for GoW I'm going with 4.5 million first week and 12.5 million lifetime

Xevross

#23
Apr 22, 2018, 07:00 PM
Changing my God of War first week from 3m to 2m, but I guess its too late for that now.

If they announce 2 weeks, like they did for Horizon, I'll guess 2.8m. Strong legs due to WoM, and beats Horizon's 2 weeks. We'll see I guess.

Dr. Pezus

#24
Apr 22, 2018, 07:18 PM
Quote from: Xevross on Apr 22, 2018, 07:00 PMChanging my God of War first week from 3m to 2m, but I guess its too late for that now.

If they announce 2 weeks, like they did for Horizon, I'll guess 2.8m. Strong legs due to WoM, and beats Horizon's 2 weeks. We'll see I guess.
Eh 2m is way too low I think. Don't judge based on UK sales alone

Xevross

#25
Apr 22, 2018, 08:39 PM
Quote from: Dr. Pezus on Apr 22, 2018, 07:18 PMEh 2m is way too low I think. Don't judge based on UK sales alone
I'm not. I just lowered my prediction based off UK sales. If I was judging off UK sales alone I'd say 1.4m (half of Uncharted 4), but I know it'll be better relatively.

Dr. Pezus

#26
Apr 22, 2018, 11:47 PM
Quote from: Xevross on Apr 22, 2018, 08:39 PMI'm not. I just lowered my prediction based off UK sales. If I was judging off UK sales alone I'd say 1.4m (half of Uncharted 4), but I know it'll be better relatively.
It's tracking to top UC4 in the US. With how miniscule the UK sales are in comparison, and extra appeal in northern Europe, I think 3m isn't out of reach yet

Xevross

#27
Apr 23, 2018, 12:08 AM
Quote from: Dr. Pezus on Apr 22, 2018, 11:47 PMIt's tracking to top UC4 in the US. With how miniscule the UK sales are in comparison, and extra appeal in northern Europe, I think 3m isn't out of reach yet
No its not out of reach, but I think first week sales are more likely to be closer to 2m than 3m at this point.

Dr. Pezus

#28
Apr 23, 2018, 12:10 AM
Quote from: Xevross on Apr 23, 2018, 12:08 AMNo its not out of reach, but I think first week sales are more likely to be closer to 2m than 3m at this point.
We'll probably see soon enough

Legend

#29
Apr 23, 2018, 02:25 AM
Has gow been getting a lot of marketing? Hopefully they didn't rely on word of mouth too much.
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