last time i checked CoD and Assassin's Creed aren't coming to gamepass day-1. hence scenario 2 which is MS asking "a lot of people" to increase the amount of money spent on games each year.
(Again, Sony isn't going to be there, I'm just saying it hasn't been confirmed yet.)
People who buy CoD, Assassin's Creed, etc, are usually going to be paying $60. And that makes up a lot of people.