My thoughts exactly.Yeah Polyphony could totally have a title within the first year, wouldn't surprise me at all. GT Sport took them less than 4 years, same again would make it a GT game within the first year of PS5.
Sony London could have something, probably a small title that gets forgotten.
Polyphony is kind of a wild card. I could see them taking their sweet time, but at the same time it's not impossible that they could have a GT in the next 2 years.
Guerrilla, Japan Studio and Bluepoint are guaranteed exclusives in the first year. Insomniac more likely than not, Housemarque could be but who knows since they still got Stormdivers on the way for PC. Sony might have a third party deal akin to Bloodborne but we'll have to see about that. If I was a betting man I'd say:
Launch lineup:
Horizon 2
Bluepoint remake (rumoured Demon Souls)
Japan Studio Knack level game
First year:
Spider-Man 2 (Insomniac)
Gran Turismo 7
London smaller game
MLB The Show 21 (obviously)
Would be a much better first 12-13 months than PS4. If GT doesn't make it then it starts to look a little shakey.