NASA tried to keep this secret, wow!

[Legend]

https://oig.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/ig-24-011.pdf



NASA had publicly disclosed discrepancies in heat shield charring compared to pre launch simulations, but they made it sound like a minor issue that potentially was just a simulation fluke. These massive cavities are so much worse than I even considered.

No way is Artemis 2 flying in 2025, and even 2026 seems unlikely now. I'll have to finish reading the full report but it looks like there's a slim chance humans will never even fly on Orion. It's unlikely but by the time they have this verified with potentially another unmanned launch, Starship could be fully operational for manned launches.

The recent talk about converting Artemis 3 into an LEO mission seems so silly now. Orion could maybe benefit from an LEO mission but it'd have to happen before Artemis 2.

[Legend]

"the test flight revealed
anomalies with the Orion heat shield, separation bolts, and power distribution that pose significant risks to the safety of
the crew."


"NASA also recorded 24 instances of power distribution anomalies in Orion's Electrical Power System. While NASA has determined that radiation was the root cause and is making software changes and developing operational workarounds for Artemis II, without a permanent hardware fix, there is increased risk that further power distribution anomalies could lead to a loss of redundancy, inadequate power, and potential loss of vehicle propulsion and pressurization." "The Orion Program has accepted this increased risk for Artemis II."


"The unexpected behavior of the Avcoat creates a risk that the heat shield may not sufficiently protect the capsule's systems and crew from the extreme heat of reentry on future missions. Moreover, while there was no evidence of impact with the Crew Module, the quantity and size of the debris could have caused enough structural damage to cause one of Orion's
parachutes to fail. Should the same issue occur on future Artemis missions, it could lead to the loss of the vehicle or crew."


"Separation bolt melt beyond the thermal barrier during reentry can expose the vehicle to hot gas
ingestion behind the heat shield, exceeding Orion's structural limits and resulting in the breakup of the vehicle and loss of crew."


"According to an Agency official, going into the Artemis I mission it was not known that the elevator "blast doors" were not in fact blast doors but rather fiberglass doors designed to keep wind out."


Also some slightly spicy back and forth between NASA and the OIG about who knows better, the engineers or the auditors.



All in all the heat shield is the only thing that may seriously delay things, but the other problems should not be happening on a $55 billion project that assumes it can do no wrong. Artemis 1 lacked a bunch of things, even including a life support system, so if those systems have unexpected problems like these systems then that is a serious risk to the crew.

I really hope Artemis 2 becomes unmanned and can be used as a full up test flight. Each flight is another ~$4 billion dollars but ground delays are not free either. Before this report I had high confidence in Artemis 2 being safe and not too delayed...