Artemis 2 delayed to September 2025, Artemis 3 (Moon landing) now September 2026

[Legend]

Wow no one saw that one coming. Artemis 2 was set to launch this year yet it's been an open secret that NASA and everyone else is behind schedule.

Will be very interesting to see when various things end up ready. I wonder if it'll be similar to commercial crew where SpaceX is delayed a few years yet still many years ahead of everyone else. I could easily see Orion being ready while Starship or spacesuits are not, in which case the landing could shift to Artemis 4. Could also see Orion and the spacesuits being delayed 1 year every year while Starship rapidly reaches maturity with LEO flights. We could see an entirely SpaceX mission since Orion is only needed for political reasons.

I think the big one will be if Polaris 3 happens before Artemis 3. Polaris 1 is set to demonstrate SpaceX spacesuits in outer space and Polaris 3 is set to be the first human launch of Starship. If both of those have happened, SpaceX could independently land humans before NASA which would be crazy. Very unlikely.