March NPD 2016 - PS4 330k, XB1 242k, WiiU 66k

[ethomaz]

Let's talk about what will happen in March

PS4: no brainier here, PS4 will be only a bit up most because Bloodborn last year... 340k
Xbox One: sorry but even trade-in deals and Division bundle won't make Xbox One be up... it will stay flat like it did last year... 230k
Wii U: not much to say here... down to 70k
3DS: a lot down yoy again... 170k

[3DS] 170k
[PS4] 340k
[WIU] 70k
[XB1] 230k

- Division will do less than 2.5m and PS4 will sold the most including bundles... my range is 2.0m to 2.3m.
- MLB The Show 16 will do over 200k but less than 250k
- The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess will do less than 250k
- Pokkén Tournament will do less than 200k
- Mortal Kombat XL is out of TOP10


Edit - Checking others predictions... lol am I going crazy with hw?

Let't check the my bets...

- I almost nailed hardware... 10k off on PS4/Xbox One and 5k off on Wii U... good

- While Division did less 2.5m it was off my prediction range... bad in a sad way.

- The Show did 25k more than my best numbers... bad in a happy way.

- Zelda did way better than I predicted... bad in a super happy way.

- Pokken 50k better... bad in a happy way.

- MK XL out of the TOP10... good.


Overall I did a good job in hardware but I bad one in software... the good part is expect Division the games sales surprised me in a good way... more sales better for industry.

April will a bit hard to predict in my opinion.. way more variables that can chance the pace of sales.

[Aquamarine]

I talked with another leaker in GAF about this TOP10 numbers.

Some are, some definitely are not.

They're all accurate, but they don't all represent literally the nearest 1K. A few of them are in-line with the real number, meaning they're rounded more heavily and they're like a few thousand off from the real numbers. Others are exact to the nearest 1K.

That's because I'm not allowed to give completely precise numbers for literally 8 out of the 10 Top 10 this month. I'm forced to give approximate numbers for a few of them. And that's also why there is a tilde (~) around some of the numbers.

Although, precision literally doesn't matter. Remember, NPD only directly tracks 95% of the market at best. They estimate the other 5% of sales using algorithms and ZERO hard data. When you look at any NPD software number, worrying about whether it's 273K or 275K or 277K is completely asinine because all NPD numbers are estimates at the end of the day, so precision is completely meaningless.

The hardware numbers are exactly what NPD reports to the nearest 100 units.

[Legend]

The hardware numbers are exactly what NPD reports to the nearest 100 units.

Wow I had no idea their tracking was that freaking good.

Consider me educated.

[Aquamarine]

Wow I had no idea their tracking was that freaking good.

Consider me educated.

Oh no, NPD's Hardware feeds + Software feeds + Accessories feeds all have the same accuracy. They're all 95% accurate at best.

I was referring to the hardware numbers I posted on VG Chartz...they're all rounded to the nearest 100 units from the exact figures that NPD gives:





PS4 Last Year:
(March 2014: 371K)
March 2015: 329,800
March 2016: 330,100
+300 units from last year (338 to be exact)
 
PS4 Last Month:
February 2016: 404,900
March 2016: 330,100
-74,800 units from last month (unadjusted)
 
 
XBO Last Year:
(March 2014: 311K)
March 2015: 228,900
March 2016: 241,500
+12,600 units from last year
 
XBO Last Month:
February 2016: 248,200
March 2016: 241,500
-6,700 units from last month (unadjusted)
 
 
 
WIU Last Year:
(March 2013: 68K)
(March 2014: 70K)
March 2015: 82,500
March 2016: 66,200
-16,300 units from last year
 
WIU Last Month:
February 2016: 69,400
March 2016: 66,200
-3,200 units from last month (unadjusted)
 
 
 
360 Last Year:
(March 2014: 110K)
March 2015: 49,100
March 2016: 24,200
-24,900 units from last year
 
360 Last Month:
February 2016: 33,500
March 2016: 24,200
-9,300 units from last month (unadjusted)
 
 
PS3 Last Year:
(March 2014: 67K)
March 2015: 53,600
March 2016: 2,100
-51,500 units from last year
 
PS3 Last Month:
February 2016: 3,700
March 2016: 2,100
-1,600 units from last month (unadjusted)

[Xevross]

Oh no, NPD's Hardware feeds + Software feeds + Accessories feeds all have the same accuracy. They're all 95% accurate at best.

I was referring to the hardware numbers I posted on VG Chartz...they're all rounded to the nearest 100 units from the exact figures that NPD gives:





PS4 Last Year:
(March 2014: 371K)
March 2015: 329,800
March 2016: 330,100
+300 units from last year (338 to be exact)
 
PS4 Last Month:
February 2016: 404,900
March 2016: 330,100
-74,800 units from last month (unadjusted)
 
 
XBO Last Year:
(March 2014: 311K)
March 2015: 228,900
March 2016: 241,500
+12,600 units from last year
 
XBO Last Month:
February 2016: 248,200
March 2016: 241,500
-6,700 units from last month (unadjusted)
 
 
 
WIU Last Year:
(March 2013: 68K)
(March 2014: 70K)
March 2015: 82,500
March 2016: 66,200
-16,300 units from last year
 
WIU Last Month:
February 2016: 69,400
March 2016: 66,200
-3,200 units from last month (unadjusted)
 
 
 
360 Last Year:
(March 2014: 110K)
March 2015: 49,100
March 2016: 24,200
-24,900 units from last year
 
360 Last Month:
February 2016: 33,500
March 2016: 24,200
-9,300 units from last month (unadjusted)
 
 
PS3 Last Year:
(March 2014: 67K)
March 2015: 53,600
March 2016: 2,100
-51,500 units from last year
 
PS3 Last Month:
February 2016: 3,700
March 2016: 2,100
-1,600 units from last month (unadjusted)

Wow! Thanks for all the data. I was wondering why it is that you can post all this data this month?


Also that PS3 drop is incredible, I guess PS4 being cheaper now has just taken away any more sales its going to get.

[Aquamarine]

One more data point you can add to the OP:
 
1. Tom Clancy's The Division (PS4, XBO, PC) - 1.796m (including bundles)
Platform breakdown:
PS4: 928K
XBO: 844K
 
2. Far Cry: Primal (PS4, XBO, PC) - 318k (including bundles)
Platform breakdown:
PS4: 179K
XBO: 139K
Please note: All other SKUs sold below Far Cry Primal (so <179K for all other PS4 SKUs, and <139K for all other XBO SKUs).



I'll ask if I can share more data regarding this month. If I get denied then I'll stop posting leaks this time around.

[Xevross]

One more data point you can add to the OP:
 
1. Tom Clancy's The Division (PS4, XBO, PC) - 1.796m (including bundles)
Platform breakdown:
PS4: 928K
XBO: 844K
 
2. Far Cry: Primal (PS4, XBO, PC) - 318k (including bundles)
Platform breakdown:
PS4: 179K
XBO: 139K
Please note: All other SKUs sold below Far Cry Primal (so <179K for all other PS4 SKUs, and <139K for all other XBO SKUs).



I'll ask if I can share more data regarding this month. If I get denied then I'll stop posting leaks this time around.

Thanks Aqua!

I'm guessing you're able to give out data every month now? So relations with the NPD group have improved?

[Dr. Pezus]

Wait, so MLB sold less than 179k on ps4?

[DerNebel]

Wait, so MLB sold less than 179k on ps4?

Yeah, that was my first thought too. That series still leans that heavily towards the PS3? That's crazy.

[BananaKing]

so farcry primal has sold roughly 700k~ in the USA so far? not bad! i have yet to finish the game, but i played 17 hours so far, its pretty fun. The Division did really well, im glad it did. next two months will be really interesting to see.