When will ps5 be in stock for at least a few hours?

Started by kitler53, Jan 07, 2021, 08:21 PM

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When will ps5 be in stock for at least a few hours?

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Total Members Voted: 5

the-pi-guy

Sold out at best buy again.

My April prediction for PS5 seems it'll be good if not too late. PS5 will not be in all stores at any point in 2021, but I think it'll reach this series s state pretty soon.
Doubtful.  

PS5 demand is way, way higher, and it's much harder to make the chips.  

AMD and MS said things aren't going to change by much until the second half of the year or later.

Legend

what makes you think that?  it's still soo impossible to find.
As xev says manufacturing chips is hard in general right now. I don't think Microsoft would be paying to make more xboxs than they need so if series s is coming around, feels like good odds series x and PS5 will be similar. Or series s will go back into a near impossible to find item.

the-pi-guy

Feb 20, 2021, 07:05 PM Last Edit: Feb 20, 2021, 07:09 PM by the-pi-guy
As xev says manufacturing chips is hard in general right now. I don't think Microsoft would be paying to make more xboxs than they need so if series s is coming around, feels like good odds series x and PS5 will be similar. Or series s will go back into a near impossible to find item.
Wouldn't that come down to contracts and manufacturing lines?  

Probably isn't practical to switch a manufacturing line from making XSS to making XSX.  Would probably take a lot of time and money.  

Demand also isn't similar for XSX and PS5.

kitler53

As xev says manufacturing chips is hard in general right now. I don't think Microsoft would be paying to make more xboxs than they need so if series s is coming around, feels like good odds series x and PS5 will be similar. Or series s will go back into a near impossible to find item.
no one knows exactly where demand is until it is met.  ms will lower series s production if manufacturing is higher than demand but it is in ms's best interest to have the console available for purchase and not impossible to find.  

series x and ps5 demand feels orders of magnitude higher than series s. 
          

Xevross

Feb 20, 2021, 07:17 PM Last Edit: Feb 20, 2021, 07:19 PM by Xevross
Sold out at best buy again.



My April prediction for PS5 seems it'll be good if not too late. PS5 will not be in all stores at any point in 2021, but I think it'll reach this series s state pretty soon.
Nah. Series X might, PS5 is still very hard to get. I think my prediction of May to be in the kind of state Series S is currently in won't be far off. And if its wrong it'll be too early.

As xev says manufacturing chips is hard in general right now. I don't think Microsoft would be paying to make more xboxs than they need so if series s is coming around, feels like good odds series x and PS5 will be similar. Or series s will go back into a near impossible to find item.
Series S demand is just much lower. Its already in good supply in countries like Spain where we know its 1/3 of XBS combined sales which are roughly matching XB1. And it lasted over a week on amazon UK before release with its first/ second round of stock allocation.

Put in other terms, sell through for each at the end of Dec was approx.:

PS5d 900k
Series S 1.1M
Series X 2.2M
PS5 3.5M

And Series S is the only one like this. Series X is getting closer, like when I said it lasted an hour on the MS store. PS5 though, both models, is way way off. Despite PS5 being by far the SKU with the most shipped it still sells out within minutes/ seconds everywhere, way faster than either xbox console.

PS5d has seen approximately similar supply to series S but is probably the most supply constrained out of them all right now.

TLDR: Xbox demand is very different so you can't really use it to judge anything about PS5. Series S itself is a special case.

Wouldn't that come down to contracts and manufacturing lines? 

Probably isn't practical to switch a manufacturing line from making XSS to making XSX.  Would probably take a lot of time and money. 

Demand also isn't similar for XSX and PS5.
It is an interesting problem, they have clearly overestimated Series S demand. They're producing them in 2:1 ratio but demand seems more like the 4:1 that Playstation seem to have nailed. Perhaps they just keep the S roughly constant and if there's any future ramping to do, focus it on X.

Legend

Wouldn't that come down to contracts and manufacturing lines?  

Probably isn't practical to switch a manufacturing line from making XSS to making XSX.  Would probably take a lot of time and money.  

Demand also isn't similar for XSX and PS5.
I mean that as of 4 months ago, Sony and Microsoft would have had a pretty good idea of demand. Changing production lines takes time but if we reach a point where every store is full of series s but every other system is sold out, Microsoft is losing a ton of potential money. I think either they expected Series S to sell way more, or other systems will slowly start catching up too.

Demand doesn't matter too much imo, as long as it was predicted and stays consistent. PS5 has higher demand so they'd be wanting to pay for more production, while Series X has lower demand so they'd be paying for less.

the-pi-guy

I mean that as of 4 months ago, Sony and Microsoft would have had a pretty good idea of demand. Changing production lines takes time but if we reach a point where every store is full of series s but every other system is sold out, Microsoft is losing a ton of potential money. I think either they expected Series S to sell way more, or other systems will slowly start catching up too.

Demand doesn't matter too much imo, as long as it was predicted and stays consistent. PS5 has higher demand so they'd be wanting to pay for more production, while Series X has lower demand so they'd be paying for less.
There are way more factors at play than supply and demand for their own systems.  

MS could benefit from making more systems, if people get tired of waiting for a PS5, they might figure that some of them will buy a XSX.  

Another factor is the supply of chips, it is probably less than the demand of either.  

There are a lot of logistic factors at play, and a lot of short term and long term planning factors that we don't even know about.  

kitler53

I mean that as of 4 months ago, Sony and Microsoft would have had a pretty good idea of demand. Changing production lines takes time but if we reach a point where every store is full of series s but every other system is sold out, Microsoft is losing a ton of potential money. I think either they expected Series S to sell way more, or other systems will slowly start catching up too.

Demand doesn't matter too much imo, as long as it was predicted and stays consistent. PS5 has higher demand so they'd be wanting to pay for more production, while Series X has lower demand so they'd be paying for less.
demand doesn't matter?!?  lol

someone needs to read about peak oil and apply the concept here.  chips are the limiting factor here.  if chip manufacuring can't keep up with demand then shortages will continue.  its not like sony will just raise prices to $600 to lower demand to match supply...

          

Legend

Feb 21, 2021, 07:24 PM Last Edit: Feb 21, 2021, 07:43 PM by Legend
There are way more factors at play than supply and demand for their own systems. 

MS could benefit from making more systems, if people get tired of waiting for a PS5, they might figure that some of them will buy a XSX. 

Another factor is the supply of chips, it is probably less than the demand of either. 

There are a lot of logistic factors at play, and a lot of short term and long term planning factors that we don't even know about. 

In an ideal market, every system would be equally hard to find as every player perfectly optimizes.

Current chip manufacturing however is far from ideal so yeah, a lot of things can be at play. If Microsoft over estimated demand or if Microsoft is actively harming Sony by using up supply chains, then anything can happen.

demand doesn't matter?!?  lol

someone needs to read about peak oil and apply the concept here.  chips are the limiting factor here.  if chip manufacuring can't keep up with demand then shortages will continue.  its not like sony will just raise prices to $600 to lower demand to match supply...


Yes ps5 demand doesn't matter as long as it was predicted and stays consistent. That's not to say the combined demand from every console is less then supply.

kitler53

a friend of mine just advised me sony direct has some stock.

https://direct-queue.playstation.com/?c=sonyied&e=babt09iws0&ver=v3-javascript-3.6.3&cver=224&man=PS%20Direct%20Prod%20KU%20Action&t=https%3A%2F%2Fdirect.playstation.com%2Fen-us%2Fconsoles%2Fconsole%2Fplaystation5-console.3005816&kupver=akamai-1.0.2

I'm in the waiting line with no guarantee to make it to the front of the line but to quote my friend,.. "weeee!"   estimated wait time is 1 hour.
          

Xevross

a friend of mine just advised me sony direct has some stock.

https://direct-queue.playstation.com/?c=sonyied&e=babt09iws0&ver=v3-javascript-3.6.3&cver=224&man=PS%20Direct%20Prod%20KU%20Action&t=https%3A%2F%2Fdirect.playstation.com%2Fen-us%2Fconsoles%2Fconsole%2Fplaystation5-console.3005816&kupver=akamai-1.0.2

I'm in the waiting line with no guarantee to make it to the front of the line but to quote my friend,.. "weeee!"   estimated wait time is 1 hour.
They've had stock here multiple times a week since pretty much September. You just gotta get in the queue before stock goes up and then they randomise the order so you might get near the front and get a chance.

kitler53

Feb 24, 2021, 09:49 PM Last Edit: Feb 24, 2021, 10:04 PM by kitler53
They've had stock here multiple times a week since pretty much September. You just gotta get in the queue before stock goes up and then they randomise the order so you might get near the front and get a chance.
well i didn't win this round.   I got all excited for a second when my computer when "ding ding ding" and then i was redirected to an "out of stock" page.  

heartbreakingly funny.  xD
          

kitler53

did my round of checks again today like everyday.  series s is available at targets by me right now.
          

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