Predict day one games for next gen systems

Started by Legend, Jan 13, 2020, 04:18 AM

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Legend


the-pi-guy

PS5:
-Horizon 2   - Rationale: It will be nearly 4 years since Horizon came out.  Out of all the Sony studios they are one of the most likely to have a title ready.  
-New IP from Sony Japan   - Rationale.  They're beasts, they're the biggest Sony studio.  

Overall that's pretty much PS4's release....  
Riskier:
-New IP from Insomniac Games

Xbox Series X:
-Halo Infinite
-Forza Horizon 5



Both:
Assassin's Creed next game
Call of Duty next game
FIFA 2021
DICE game (BattleField VI?)
Just Dance 2021
NBA 2K21
Madden 2021



I'll try coming back with less obvious ones...  

kitler53

PS5:
-Horizon 2   - Rationale: It will be nearly 4 years since Horizon came out.  Out of all the Sony studios they are one of the most likely to have a title ready. 
-New IP from Sony Japan   - Rationale.  They're beasts, they're the biggest Sony studio. 

Overall that's pretty much PS4's release.... 
Riskier:
-New IP from Insomniac Games

Xbox Series X:
-Halo Infinite
-Forza Horizon 5



Both:
Assassin's Creed next game
Call of Duty next game
FIFA 2021
DICE game (BattleField VI?)
Just Dance 2021
NBA 2K21
Madden 2021



I'll try coming back with less obvious ones... 
feel like a good guess.

for sony naughty dog as TLoU launching earlier this year and sucker punch is suppose to out before the holiday too so those studio's are spent. so horizon 2 from GG sounds like a pretty good guess.  however, it is worth mentioning that polyphony's last game was 2017 as well so they are due for a release.  i wouldn't be too surprised if the next GT was at released at launch either.

also, santa monica has been quiet for a while.  i imagine GoW 2 will be a spring release when it comes but spring 2021 is possible. 

lastly,.. with BC in place a "re-release" might not actually make much sense but I can see TLoU 2 and ghost of tsushima getting re-released in ps5's packaging at launch.  it would be useful for those casuals that might not understand BC in a console.  they'll feel better buying  a game that explicitly states the system they are buying.


for xbox i think halo is enough.   i believe that is already confirmed.   forza is certainly going to be in the release window but if i were MS i would spread that out by at least a few weeks.  but what do i know.


for both systems there will be some smaller titles as well.  downloadable only types.  doesn't seem worth trying to guess at those.
       

Legend

PS5

Godfall-it is already announced as releasing around then. Seems like a 50/50 on being there day one.

Insomniac game-Not spiderman, but Insomniac traditionally has worked on multiple games and I bet they had one already in development before being purchased. Also I totally forgot they were purchased.

GenDesign game, The Last Guardian devs-It's been a long time since they released a game. Outside of a teaser, I don't think much is known about their next project.


Xbox Series X

Halo Infinite-pretty much confirmed at this point.

Everwild-also seems very likely.


Third party for both

Next assassin's creed.

Next COD.

Fortnight and lots of gaas ports.



Omissions

Horizon 2-After doing Killzone as a launch title, I don't think Sony wants to risk this large of a game again. An early 2021 release makes more sense so the game can be delayed an extra month or two if needed.

God of War 2-Come on, we all know it'll be their big summer 2021 release.

kitler53

Omissions

Horizon 2-After doing Killzone as a launch title, I don't think Sony wants to risk this large of a game again. An early 2021 release makes more sense so the game can be delayed an extra month or two if needed.
the bigger risk is releasing the ps5 without a large AAA next gen exclusive.  sony wants/needs people to upgrade and horizon is massively popular both in sales (10 million plus) and is user and gaming press darling.  

killzone was never a well received.  i can't find much in the way of hard numbers but kz2 was announced to have only crossed 1 million units after 2 months.   ...and kz3 had a smaller launch at least in the first 2 weeks.   that might mean kz shadow fall's 2.1 million units was the best selling killzone title in the franchise.

actually,.. horizon had 2.6 million in "under two weeks"   meaning it probably outsold each of the kz games LTD sales in it's first week.  horizon would be a fantastic game to drive initial ps5 sales.   i know it would make me upgrade at launch instead of waiting 6 months like i did for ps4.
       

the-pi-guy

Horizon 2-After doing Killzone as a launch title, I don't think Sony wants to risk this large of a game again. An early 2021 release makes more sense so the game can be delayed an extra month or two if needed.
They're definitely not going to want to rush the game at the expense of the quality. 
But if they are confident in its quality, releasing it day 1 would be a boon. 

It's pretty safe to say that Killzone Shadow Fall was the best selling Killzone game by a solid margin.

Legend

the bigger risk is releasing the ps5 without a large AAA next gen exclusive.  sony wants/needs people to upgrade and horizon is massively popular both in sales (10 million plus) and is user and gaming press darling.  

killzone was never a well received.  i can't find much in the way of hard numbers but kz2 was announced to have only crossed 1 million units after 2 months.   ...and kz3 had a smaller launch at least in the first 2 weeks.   that might mean kz shadow fall's 2.1 million units was the best selling killzone title in the franchise.

actually,.. horizon had 2.6 million in "under two weeks"   meaning it probably outsold each of the kz games LTD sales in it's first week.  horizon would be a fantastic game to drive initial ps5 sales.   i know it would make me upgrade at launch instead of waiting 6 months like i did for ps4.
Launch exclusives get a huge boost in sales. That said, Horizon+God of War+Naughty Dog are some of the biggest games/studios nowadays. They will sell great whenever they release as long as they are good.

A Days Gone or Ghost of Tsushima level AAA game would be less risky. It would have the potential to be a huge juggernaut comparable to Horizon 2 at launch but if things don't work out and Sony ends up with another Killzone Shadowfall, it isn't a huge blunder.

They're definitely not going to want to rush the game at the expense of the quality.  
But if they are confident in its quality, releasing it day 1 would be a boon.  

It's pretty safe to say that Killzone Shadow Fall was the best selling Killzone game by a solid margin.
This is SoonyTM we're talking about  ;) An extra 2 months can be huge for development and Sony isn't afraid to give devs that extra time. Even if Horizon 2 was targeting 2019 just to factor in unexpected delays, it could still end up needing just a bit more time unless the game is literally finished and just sitting in a vault.



I think the first year of PS5 will be stacked. It won't be anything close to the first party PS4 drought. It just feels unnecessarily risky imo to prioritize day 1 games when day 30, 60, and 90 games are also important.

Xevross

Jan 16, 2020, 12:00 PM Last Edit: Jan 16, 2020, 12:06 PM by Xevross
Obviously there's going to be lots of multiplats at launch like COD, Assassin's Creed, Fifa etc.

For PS5 I think Japan studio will 100% have a Knack-esque game at launch. Bluepoint's current project is going to be a PS5 exclusive and I think it'll be a launch title too. So that's at least 2 medium sized exclusives. They need at least one big one and I think there's four candidates: Horizon 2, Insomniac, polyphony and another Japan Studio game.

Horizon 2 is 100% coming within the first year of PS5 and it just comes down to if GG are ready for launch. I think this is the one they will be currently targeting and is the most likely to make launch.

Insomniac are a big studio with a solid output, if they miss 2020 it'll be the first time they've gone 2 years in a row without a 'big' game release since their company's creation in 1996. I think it'll be close but since they're under Sony now they'll be given a bit more time and money and their big PS5 exclusive will be early 2021, Infamous SS style.

Polyphony will be releasing the next GT within the next couple years for sure and there's a chance its available for launch, I'd probably bet its the big 2021 holiday exclusive though.

Japan Studio is a bit of a wild one. We know its a massive studio and they do lots of collaborations. I think that whilst they're making Knack 3 a smaller game they'll be collaborating on another, Bloodborne style. Perhaps its Bloodborne 2, that would be the dream. This is a bit of a longshot.

I think there'll also be a couple of smaller exclusives for PS5 at launch, Resogun level.

Xbox will have no launch exclusive, obviously as MS said they're not going to make any next gen exclusives for at least a year after launch. However if we count cross gen then they have Halo, Forza, Hellblade 2 (only 10% chance this makes launch) and probably one or two others from their newly acquired studios. If they do have at least those 4 then that's a really strong lineup and Sony will absolutely need a big game like Horizon 2 to compete.

kitler53

i mean, i think it is important to put things in context of the ps4 launch titles:

https://www.Legend.ie/tech/heres-the-full-list-of-ps4-launch-day-titles-384036

Sony Computer Entertainment Titles
Killzone Shadow Fall   (AAA)
Knack  (AA)
Resogun (Downloadable only)
Flower (port)
Sound Shapes (port)
Escape Plan (port)
Flow (port)

i think it is pretty reasonable to expect a similar distribution with one obvious flaw in that ps4 games will all be compatible with ps5 without the need to port.

For the downloadable only game that feels impossible to guess.  there are too many quality developers to pull but whatever it is will probably be cross gen,.. just released on the ps5 release date with some extra marketing fanfare.

for the AA i kind of forget about bluepoint's announcement.  that has a good chance to be a ps5 launch day exclusive.   since they deal with ports mostly i'll bet it is sony's yearly-ish ps2 remake.   in part because sony is running out of ps2 games to remake and in part because i really, really want it to happen i'm going to say a remake of ratchet and clank going commando.  

for the AAA game i think we are all on the right trail.  Horizon 2, next GT, something from Japan Studio, something from insomniac.   i can't say for sure which one is the launch day release but all are possibilities.  maybe legend has a point and Horizon 2 is not prioritized for launch day but rather be the big spring released game.  if so i think maybe the japan studio game as the best chance to be release day as would benefit the most from the launch day hype.    regardless,.. this is probably ps5's first year of games and not much else. we gamers always like to say "next year is going to be staked" and it never happens.  4 AAA releases a year is a lot of first party content.   

..actually, i'll add that Naughty Dog's "multiplayer project" that isn't shipping with TLoU2 is likely to release in the first year too.  since it was at one point part of TLoU2 it should be too far behind TLoU2's release date.

for the ports:
 - TLoU 2
 - ghost of tsushima 
 - death stranding
Each of these receives an a release formally packaged as ps5.  each of these games get a "patch" to bring 4k textures and resolution bump to show off the new hardware.  hopefully that patch is backwards compatible for those that purchased these game on ps4.
       

Legend

I think we actually did a pretty ok job!

Xevross

I think we actually did a pretty ok job!

Yeah pretty happy with mine. Knack esque is Astro. I thought one of insomniac or guerrilla and it was insomniac. Bluwpoints remake is there. AnAnd there's two resogun style outsourced smaller exclusives.