I expect Sony to come in last next gen; change my mind

[Legend]

Playstation will win Europe, that is a fact.

America could go to anyone however and Japan could go to Nintendo. With all the changes in leadership and recent issues with Sony, it feels like both of the other systems are going into next gen ready to win.

Sony will end PS4 with some awesome games, just like PS3, but they have only a few studios working on next gen. Meanwhile xbox has given up on this gen and Nintendo is back in fashion.

Change my mind.

[ethomaz]

The same was told before this gen...

[DerNebel]

Like ethomaz said, we've gone completely full circle back to 2012, where we also had people left and right think, that Sony was destined to fail. However this time there's even less reason for thought's like that.

First of all what do we define as "next generation"? Is the Switch counted among those or would that be Nintendos next system? Cause if it's that latter, then the cards are completely off the table again. Nintendo is not consistent with their hardware and their follow-up could be a complete bomb, wouldn't be the first time that happened. And if it's the Switch, then we'll have to see the legs of that thing, Nintendo's hardware has notoriously poor legs, so who knows what the Switch will be selling in like 2021 or so.

Then in regards to Xbox. For all the talk about how they are "poised to win the next generation" around the net, I still haven't seen anything from them that suggests to me that they have any idea how to fix their biggest weakness, outside of how absolutely US centric their brand is, their freaking games. Yes, they've bought studios, but do they know how to actually get good games out of them? Looking at their output over the last years, it largely seems like they have no clue and them saying things like "we want one game per quarter" doesn't actually instill me with much confidence. That quantity over quality mindset isn't encouraging considering that their quality already is thouroughly mediocre. But I guess it doesn't matter, if you can just get everything for cheap on Gamepass. Which brings up another point, with MS making their hardware more and more redundant, how do we gage who "wins" next gen? I guess one could look at revenue, but as I've said before, I'm not a huge fan of something like that.

Lastly Sony - you say that they only have a few studios working on next gen, however I don't think that's true. Outside of what's announced I think every studio they have is working on next gen and I'm sure that all of the big three outstanding games will be PS5 enhanced in some way, plus I'm sure there's collaborations going on as well. Also it has to be acknowledged that a lot of Sony's studios this gen layed or are laying the groundwork for being able to make their games somewhat quicker next gen, by having them be sequels to franchises they establish on PS4. I don't believe for a second that we'll have to wait another 5 years for a Horizon or God of War sequel for instance. Plus there's the whole ecosystem argument, which nowadays has become more valid than ever.

I know that it can be frustrating to see all those rumors around MS and Nintendo popping up, while we hear hardly anything from Sony. However I try to take this mystery as something positive, I'm pretty sure Sony isn't just going to roll over and let the other guys take the next generation. That we know so little excites me and should, if they are in a similar position, actually somewhat worry MS and Nintendo, cause while seemingly a lot of their plans for the future are out in the open, Sony's are largely hidden still.

[the-pi-guy]

I think Sony has largely learned from their lessons.  They'll be fine .

[Dr. Pezus]

Sony won't only win Europe lol. They basically have everything but America and Japan on lock

[Xevross]

Eh this isn't something where change my mind applies, since no one can see the future. I can't see nextbox beating PS5 worldwide anyway but it depends what happens.

If they both launch around the same time with similar prices then next gen should go roughly the same as this one.

Nintendo sales have no impact on PS/XB sales and visa-versa, so no point discussing them. Who knows what's going to happen after Switch, anyway.

[kitler53]

way to early to say anything but...


sony makes good games, ms does not

digital is huge this gen, now more than every people are invested in the ecosystem not the hardware.  just like with android vs iphone,.. people will be increasingly loyal to their established game library for as long as BC is still honored. 

[the-pi-guy]

The success usually comes down to: hardware (including the price of said software), software(mostly games), and marketing.

Hardware:
This is the big unknown.  

It's possible that Sony could make a blunder like Microsoft did this in gen, with a more expensive memory configuration that ended up being detrimental.  But I doubt they will.  

There are other factors like VR.  But I doubt Sony will depend on peripherals or anything like that.  

Software:

Microsoft has had some major hits with Halo, and Gears.  But their current trend is not a positive one.  They're largely struggling to remake the successes that they had during the 360 years, with critics or the main market.  
Their recent acquisitions, while promising, are really mostly there to undo the damages that they've seen from all the closings they had previously.  

While Sony doesn't seem to be making as many games as they used to, and they do have some sections that are really struggling to release games as quickly, they're still building market perception that they make excellent games.  And we're seeing, even when they fail critically, they are still pulling pretty massive numbers when it comes to sales.  

I don't really see where this holds up:

but they have only a few studios working on next gen

Media Molecule, Naughty Dog, Sucker Punch, Sony Bend are probably working on some of the last PS4 games from Sony.  And I suspect that Naughty Dog and Media Molecule have some other project going on.  

Despite Media Molecule's tiny size, they've worked on multiple projects in the past.  They clearly like to keep busy.  

I suspect that TLoU 2 and Ghost of Tsushima will make their way to PS5.  

Not to mention, we know that Sony has new teams being put together, and they probably have even more in store that we don't know about.  
So I think overall, Sony is in a better position than you are thinking they are.  That's without even considering Sony games that are being developed by third party.  


Marketing:

This is a big unknown in general.  Both companies over the past 7 years have had some major missteps in communication as well as some strong wins.  
Microsoft had a rough time with always online being a big concern, which Sony capitalized on big time early on.  
But then Microsoft is currently making great strides with cross play compared to Sony.  

Overall, I think cross play won't be as big of a deal as people think.

In terms of brand recognition, PlayStation has most of the world well under wraps.  It really only comes down to the US and the UK where things are more competitive.  

There are a couple of unknowns, some of which are completely unknown to be positive or negative, but overall Sony is definitely in a strong position going into next gen.  The only thing that would hurt that, is if Microsoft releases their successor first.  Which might be likely.