Video Game Sales Thread

Xevross · Nov 28, 2018, 01:23 PM

Anyway this is awesome, Switch being more than double YOY in the most significant days suggests that a 1.5M+ NPD is pretty likely. The 8.2M US estimate doesn't help, since NPD includes Canada. But that does mean Switch in the US this month sold 800k + its Canada LTD up to November.

ethomaz · Nov 28, 2018, 01:41 PM

Quote from: Xevross on Nov 28, 2018, 01:23 PMAnyway this is awesome, Switch being more than double YOY in the most significant days suggests that a 1.5M+ NPD is pretty likely. The 8.2M US estimate doesn't help, since NPD includes Canada. But that does mean Switch in the US this month sold 800k + its Canada LTD up to November.

NPD US only is at ~7.38m up to October and it doesn't include Canada.

So yes... if you believe that 8.2m number then it sold around 800k in NPD November... that is up YoY compared with last year 700k.

Xevross · Nov 28, 2018, 01:51 PM

Quote from: ethomaz on Nov 28, 2018, 01:41 PMNPD US only is at ~7.38m up to October and it doesn't include Canada.

So yes... if you believe that 8.2m number then it sold around 800k in NPD November... that is up YoY compared with last year 700k.

Something is off, there's no way its up 115% over the biggest days of last year yet only up 10% YOY for the month.

Would make sense to me if 8.2M was before this BF-cyber monday period started, but that would be a pretty big number too. Hmmmmmmm

ethomaz · Nov 28, 2018, 01:54 PM

Quote from: Xevross on Nov 28, 2018, 01:51 PMSomething is off, there's no way its up 115% over the biggest days of last year yet only up 10% YOY for the month.

It is up 115% compared with Black Friday to Cyber Monday from last year but NPD November didn't include Cyber Monday last year.

Switch did 700k last year November... how much it did in Black Friday to Cyber Monday? Nobody knows but at least in Black Friday it was way lower than 700k.

Cute Pikachu · Nov 28, 2018, 01:54 PM

Yeah we had sales insiders said it was up significantly throughout November and we know it sold more than 500k on Black Friday.

115% increase for the biggest week with known increases throughout the month should not mean a 100k+ increase only.

ethomaz · Nov 28, 2018, 01:55 PM

Quote from: Cute Pikachu on Nov 28, 2018, 01:54 PMYeah we had sales insiders said it was up significantly throughout November and we know it sold more than 500k on Black Friday.

115% increase for the biggest week with known increases throughout the month should not mean a 100k+ increase only.

It sold over 500k in Black Friday??? I just missed it.

BTW the insider is Benji, no? That means Best Buy only? Or Gamestop?

Cute Pikachu · Nov 28, 2018, 02:01 PM

Quote from: ethomaz on Nov 28, 2018, 01:55 PMIt sold over 500k in Black Friday??? I just missed it.

BTW the insider is Benji, no? That means Best Buy only? Or Gamestop?

It sold more than 500k, because the Wii sold 500k on Black Friday alone I'm 2011 I think. That doesn't include the other days either. Abdiel is Best Buy, Benji can see over 90%.

ethomaz · Nov 28, 2018, 02:04 PM

Quote from: Cute Pikachu on Nov 28, 2018, 02:01 PMIt sold more than 500k, because the Wii sold 500k on Black Friday alone I'm 2011 I think. That doesn't include the other days either. Abdiel is Best Buy, Benji can see over 90%.

I don't have Wii data but it makes sense if that 500k is true unless Nintendo is talking about revenue... that makes the best selling in the 5 days period (Black to Cyber) useless for units comparision because Wii was cheaper in 2011.

I'm not doubting anybody but these maths are based in nothing accurate... the only number that can be compared is the 8.2m and even so it looks to be inaccurate.

Cute Pikachu · Nov 28, 2018, 02:05 PM

Quote from: ethomaz on Nov 28, 2018, 02:04 PMI don't have Wii data but it makes sense if that 500k is true unless Nintendo is talking about revenue.

For these numbers to work Switch would have to be down ever week before despite having Pokémon.

Xevross · Nov 28, 2018, 02:08 PM

Quote from: ethomaz on Nov 28, 2018, 01:54 PMIt is up 115% compared with Black Friday to Cyber Monday from last year but NPD November didn't include Cyber Monday last year.

Switch did 700k last year November... how much it did in Black Friday to Cyber Monday? Nobody knows but at least in Black Friday it was way lower than 700k.

Well true, but we know Wii sold 500k on BF day alone in 2011, and will of course have sold some decent units around there as well. This means Switch must be significantly over 500k from this sales period. Suggesting if 8.2M is the LTD after, then it barely sold anything at all in early November, which just isn't right.

Add in insider knowledge we have, we know Switch was having an incredible month and was very close to PS4. I think this is either the LTD before this thanksgiving period, or its the October LTD + what Switch sold in those 5 days, since they haven't collected data for the other weeks yet. Both of these would make a lot of sense.

ethomaz · Nov 28, 2018, 02:15 PM

Quote from: Xevross on Nov 28, 2018, 02:08 PMWell true, but we know Wii sold 500k on BF day alone in 2011, and will of course have sold some decent units around there as well. This means Switch must be significantly over 500k from this sales period. Suggesting if 8.2M is the LTD after, then it barely sold anything at all in early November, which just isn't right.

Add in insider knowledge we have, we know Switch was having an incredible month and was very close to PS4. I think this is either the LTD before this thanksgiving period, or its the October LTD + what Switch sold in those 5 days, since they haven't collected data for the other weeks yet. Both of these would make a lot of sense.

In the guesstimates area the bold look really possible.

Anyway I don't think Switch will be anywhere near to PS4 in NPD November... PS4 is set to be higher than last year and Switch even being massive UP yoy could be lower than 1.5m.

Xevross · Nov 28, 2018, 02:20 PM

Quote from: ethomaz on Nov 28, 2018, 02:15 PMIn the guesstimates area the bold look really possible.

Anyway I don't think Switch will be anywhere near to PS4 in NPD November... PS4 is set to be higher than last year and Switch even being massive UP yoy could be lower than 1.5m.

Yeah I'm starting to be convinced that this is the case. I think whoever released this data didn't know the rest of the month and just added the sales estimate from those 5 days to the last known NPD estimate.

I'm going to believe Benji on this one, he's making it sound like PS4 will be down a bit YOY and Switch will be close behind. I guess we'll see. Man, why is NPD release so far away.

BananaKing · Nov 28, 2018, 02:20 PM

Quote from: Cute Pikachu on Nov 28, 2018, 01:21 PMNintendo of America sent PR out by the way.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/h...Hits-Big-Milestones-Thanksgiving-Cyber-Monday

Switch is up 115% for Black Friday and Cyber Monday Period.
Switch hardware sales are at 8.2 million sold through after the period.
First Party games altogether sold over 1 Million during the period(78% increase)
Pokémon Let's Go>1.5 Million
Super Mario Party is over a million-fastest selling Mario Party ever in the US.

Now here is the big one.

Switch had its best selling Black Friday week, it also had the best one ever for a Nintendo console(including Wii).

Wow... So slow..

Mods please permaban.

ethomaz · Nov 28, 2018, 02:24 PM

Quote from: Xevross on Nov 28, 2018, 02:20 PMYeah I'm starting to be convinced that this is the case. I think whoever released this data didn't know the rest of the month and just added the sales estimate from those 5 days to the last known NPD estimate.

I'm going to believe Benji on this one, he's making it sound like PS4 will be down a bit YOY and Switch will be close behind. I guess we'll see. Man, why is NPD release so far away.

Weird because Benji said in the retail he works the PS4 $199 stock was way higher than PS4 $199 of the last year... and it sold out in both years... so 2018 probably is bigger than 2017 plus Cyber Monday counts for this year and not last year that means even the $199 being sold out more expensive consoles was sold like Pro helped by the Cyber Monday.

BananaKing · Nov 28, 2018, 02:26 PM

So without insider talk and doing math only, we understand that switch sold how much in November? We know it's total this year October NPD, so how much did it do by this year's BF?