Video Game Sales Thread

[Xevross]

XBO did that badly!?!?!

It didn't do badly in the US and for some reason amazon uk always favours PS4 more than the norm. So I don't think its done too badly

[DerNebel]

That's exactly the kinda bundle that console manufacturers should release imo, focus on the games only available on your system and help create fanbases for those exclusive franchises.

PS and XB are a tad too 3rd party reliant imo, so I think that those things are a great idea for both of them.

[Legend]

It didn't do badly in the US and for some reason amazon uk always favours PS4 more than the norm. So I don't think its done too badly

19th is really poor looking. First week it was #6, second week it was #17, third week it was #53, and fourth week it was #85.

Let's say weekly #1 is 100 units sold, #2 is 99 units sold, #3 is 98 units sold, etc.

Then that'd make XBO average 60 units sold per week and place #40. But it's place #19.

So let's say the space between the top few numbers is closer than the bottom few. #1=99.99 units, #2=99.96, #3=99.91, #4= 99.84, #5=99.75... #98=3.96, #99=1.99, and #100=0.

Then XBO would average 74.1 units a week, putting it at around #50. But that just made the place go higher not lower, so obviously we need to do the opposite.

So let's say the space between the top numbers is larger than the bottom few. #1=100 units, #2=50, #3=33, #4=25, #5=20, #6=16.7, #7=14, #8=12.5, etc.

Then XBO would average 6.4 units a week, putting it around #16. That's pretty dang close! Logically we'd expect something like this to be the case, and the math supports it. Nowhere near perfect but in general I'd think it's more than good enough.

What does this all mean though?

PS4 is #6, so with this model it'd sell 16.7X units for the month. XBO is #19 so it'd sell 5.3X units for the month. Round the difference down a bit since the prediction model I used put XBO a bit too high, and we can assume with pretty high confidence that for every AC XBO bundle Amazon sold, they sold 3 PS4s.

TLDR: PS4 outsold XBO 3 to 1 on Amazon.



EDT: just to check, I applied this model to PS4. First week it was #5, second week it was #11, third week it was #12, and fourth week it was #5 again. It ended up at #6, and my model predicts #7. Applied to bloodborne my model predicts #5, and it's #4.

For comparison, the first graph predicts #9 for PS4 and #11 for Bloodborne. The second graph predicts #9 for PS4 and #15 for bloodborne. Both are way off.


Also in the images I forgot to rename the graphs.

EDT2: GTA5 PS4 is another good one to test. It spent three weeks around 30 and then one at #6. It ended the month at #16, and my model predicts #16. GTAV XBO is at #20, and my model predicts #21. DS4 is #25, my model predicts #24.

[Xevross]

Sweet model. Yeah I always imagine that sales look like the third graph, it makes most sense. I don't think the model will work to predict NPD though, amazon is only a small % and seems to favour playstation

[Legend]

Sweet model. Yeah I always imagine that sales look like the third graph, it makes most sense. I don't think the model will work to predict NPD though, amazon is only a small % and seems to favour playstation

Yeah Amazon isn't perfect. That's why in NPD I'm only predicting a 2 to 1 lead

[Dr. Pezus]

19th is really poor looking. First week it was #6, second week it was #17, third week it was #53, and fourth week it was #85.

Let's say weekly #1 is 100 units sold, #2 is 99 units sold, #3 is 98 units sold, etc.

Spoiler for Image:

<img src="http://i.imgur.com/16tiOsJ.png" alt="" class="bbc_img" loading="lazy">

Then that'd make XBO average 60 units sold per week and place #40. But it's place #19.

So let's say the space between the top few numbers is closer than the bottom few. #1=99.99 units, #2=99.96, #3=99.91, #4= 99.84, #5=99.75... #98=3.96, #99=1.99, and #100=0.

Spoiler for Image:

<img src="http://i.imgur.com/yfcofe2.png" alt="" class="bbc_img" loading="lazy">

Then XBO would average 74.1 units a week, putting it at around #50. But that just made the place go higher not lower, so obviously we need to do the opposite.

So let's say the space between the top numbers is larger than the bottom few. #1=100 units, #2=50, #3=33, #4=25, #5=20, #6=16.7, #7=14, #8=12.5, etc.

Spoiler for Image:

<img src="http://i.imgur.com/o4LSzS2.png" alt="" class="bbc_img" loading="lazy">

Then XBO would average 6.4 units a week, putting it around #16. That's pretty dang close! Logically we'd expect something like this to be the case, and the math supports it. Nowhere near perfect but in general I'd think it's more than good enough.

What does this all mean though?

PS4 is #6, so with this model it'd sell 16.7X units for the month. XBO is #19 so it'd sell 5.3X units for the month. Round the difference down a bit since the prediction model I used put XBO a bit too high, and we can assume with pretty high confidence that for every AC XBO bundle Amazon sold, they sold 3 PS4s.

TLDR: PS4 outsold XBO 3 to 1 on Amazon.



EDT: just to check, I applied this model to PS4. First week it was #5, second week it was #11, third week it was #12, and fourth week it was #5 again. It ended up at #6, and my model predicts #7. Applied to bloodborne my model predicts #5, and it's #4.

For comparison, the first graph predicts #9 for PS4 and #11 for Bloodborne. The second graph predicts #9 for PS4 and #15 for bloodborne. Both are way off.


Also in the images I forgot to rename the graphs.

EDT2: GTA5 PS4 is another good one to test. It spent three weeks around 30 and then one at #6. It ended the month at #16, and my model predicts #16. GTAV XBO is at #20, and my model predicts #21. DS4 is #25, my model predicts #24.

Great graph. It doesn't work well for all games though, like when the next GTA releases lol.

[ethomaz]

After the ends of US tax Xbox One took a big hit in sales... so it makes sense to have better sales in early March than mid/late March... third graph looks accurate.

[Legend]

Great graph. It doesn't work well for all games though, like when the next GTA releases lol.

Only item I've found that's significantly off is Bloodborne CE. The model predicts #18 while it's #29.





Also this is basically what I was talking about a while ago. Make a program that creates a 1 to 1 model for each month for the data. It'd be essentially perfect and give us exact sales ratios for any item being sold on Amazon at any time. Could also be applied to other websites.

[Xevross]

Yeah Amazon isn't perfect. That's why in NPD I'm only predicting a 2 to 1 lead

2:1 would still be pretty crazy. Well, I guess we'll see

[Dr. Pezus]

wut

[Xevross]

BATTLEFIELD SECURES FOURTH CROWN
13/Apr/2015
EA's 'Battlefield Hardline' (-56%) claims a 4th consecutive crown as it stays just ahead of 'FIFA 15' (-8%).

With little in the way of new releases familiar faces jostle for position in the Top 10 this week. 'Grand Theft Auto V' (-39%) is down a place to No3 but remains comfortably ahead of Ubisoft's 'Far Cry 4' (-44%). 'Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare' (-42%) is up one place to No5 pushing PS4 exclusive 'Bloodborne' (-58%) down to No6. Both 'Forza Horizon 2' (-17%) at No7 and 'Halo: The Master Chief Collection' (-33%) at No 9 climb into the Top 10 boosted by strong sales of their respective Xbox One Hardware bundles.
Take2's 'Borderlands: The Handsome Collection' (-56%) is sandwiched between the two at No8 in its third week. 'Minecraft: Xbox Edition' (-37%) is also back in the Top 10 after a one week absence. PQube's motorbike racer 'Ride' (+81%) is boosted by the addition of Xbox One and Xbox 360 versions propelling the title 31 places to No18 following its release at the end of March.

All Formats: https://www.chart-track.co.uk/index.jsp?c=p/software/uk/latest/index_test.jsp&ct=110015
Individual SKUs: https://www.chart-track.co.uk/index.jsp?c=p/software/uk/latest/index_test.jsp&ct=110032

[Xevross]

Xb1 games doing very well, could big giving PS4 a close run in at the moment

[ethomaz]

Bloodborne first... good.

[Dr. Pezus]

Bloodborne dropping a bit too fast :/

Did XB1 get a new bundle/price drop this week?

[Xevross]

Bloodborne dropping a bit too fast :/

Did XB1 get a new bundle/price drop this week?

Indeed. Nothing happened on amazon uk, GAME must have done something