General Politics Thread

Legend · Nov 03, 2020, 08:03 PM

I hope this isn't premature.

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kitler53 · Nov 03, 2020, 08:09 PM

Quote from: Xevross on Nov 03, 2020, 07:20 PMCounties release the data, this guy on twitter is collating it and giving updates: https://twitter.com/umichvoter99

gotcha. so fake news...

Quote from: Legend on Nov 03, 2020, 08:03 PMI hope this isn't premature.

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lol, we'll see. my take is trump won't win with the voters but will take it to the courts no matter how bad he's losing.

i'm a bit hearten to see a very conservative jugde throwing out the republican case against the 127k "drive through" votes in tx. ..but i don't trust any republican to do the right thing these days and it only takes 1 PoS per state in probably 3 states to steal the election.

the-pi-guy · Nov 03, 2020, 08:52 PM

Quote from: Xevross on Nov 03, 2020, 05:38 PMRepublicans out-voted Dems by 220k in 5 and a half hours in Florida, they hold a voted registration lead of 106k now. This is missing a few counties for election day numbers, Miami Dade included.

According to polling averages, any GOP+3 environment or bluer favours a Biden win in Florida.

If the current pace continues we're looking at total votes of:

GOP 4.41M (40.0%)
Dem 4.05M (36.6%)
NPA 2.60M (23.5%)

However the GOP hourly advantage is trending downards and this is missing some Dem favouring counties.So this will slightly overestimate the GOP lead. So yeah, good old Florida.

Dems are nearly at those numbers, Reps are still quite aways to go.

FLORIDA, 3:30 UPDATE

Republican: 4,087,834 (+173,200)
Democratic: 3,914,634
NPA/Other: 2,464,130

TOTAL: 10,466,598

*Includes ALL mail + in-person early
*Missing E-day votes: DeSoto, Hardee, Jefferson, Monroe, Seminole, Union
*only 2pm update from miami dade
— UMichVoter (@umichvoter99) November 3, 2020

I'm starting to feel good about FL.

Xevross · Nov 03, 2020, 09:02 PM

Quote from: the-Pi-guy on Nov 03, 2020, 08:52 PMDems are nearly at those numbers, Reps are still quite aways to go.
FLORIDA, 3:30 UPDATE

Republican: 4,087,834 (+173,200)
Democratic: 3,914,634
NPA/Other: 2,464,130

TOTAL: 10,466,598

*Includes ALL mail + in-person early
*Missing E-day votes: DeSoto, Hardee, Jefferson, Monroe, Seminole, Union
*only 2pm update from miami dade
— UMichVoter (@umichvoter99) November 3, 2020

I'm starting to feel good about FL.

Yep, we got some Miami Dade numbers and now my daily projection is down to just R+2.7. If that keeps going Biden should have Florida.

the-pi-guy · Nov 03, 2020, 10:01 PM

FLORIDA, 4:40 PM UPDATE

Republican: 4,149,144 (+191,876)
Democratic: 3,957,268
NPA/Other: 2,597,260

TOTAL: 10,703,672

*Includes ALL mail + in-person early
*Missing E-day votes: DeSoto, Hardee, Jefferson, Monroe, Seminole, Union
*only 2pm update from miami dade
— UMichVoter (@umichvoter99) November 3, 2020

By comparison: ~ 9.4 million votes in 2016

Xevross · Nov 03, 2020, 10:18 PM

Quote from: the-Pi-guy on Nov 03, 2020, 10:01 PM
FLORIDA, 4:40 PM UPDATE

Republican: 4,149,144 (+191,876)
Democratic: 3,957,268
NPA/Other: 2,597,260

TOTAL: 10,703,672

*Includes ALL mail + in-person early
*Missing E-day votes: DeSoto, Hardee, Jefferson, Monroe, Seminole, Union
*only 2pm update from miami dade
— UMichVoter (@umichvoter99) November 3, 2020

By comparison: ~ 9.4 million votes in 2016

Yep. Florida is heading for only R+2 in the end I think.

2016 was R+6 and Trump won by 1.2%.

2018 was R+4 and the Republicans won by ~0.5%

Independents are polling better for Biden than in the previous two elections aslo. This is good news.

Xevross · Nov 03, 2020, 11:21 PM

Two counties in indiana reporting so far:

Dekalb 2016 Trump +48%, 2020 +38%
Greene 2016 Trump +53%, 2020 Trump +39%

Not all 2020 votes in yet so could change, but good start.

Edit:

Steuben 2016 Trump +44%, 2020 Trump +33%

Xevross · Nov 04, 2020, 12:26 AM

Miami-Dade is a disaster for Biden.

kitler53 · Nov 04, 2020, 12:40 AM

Quote from: Xevross on Nov 04, 2020, 12:26 AMMiami-Dade is a disaster for Biden.

just how. how could it be practically even in miami. smells like BS to me.

kitler53 · Nov 04, 2020, 12:42 AM

I'm getting really nervous now. trump is going to win.

Dr. Pezus · Nov 04, 2020, 01:16 AM

Quote from: kitler53 on Nov 04, 2020, 12:42 AMI'm getting really nervous now. trump is going to win.

Why?

Xevross · Nov 04, 2020, 01:19 AM

Quote from: Dr. Pezus on Nov 04, 2020, 01:16 AMWhy?

He's going to win Florida even bigger than last time, other swing states don't have enough counted to tell if they're going the same.

the-pi-guy · Nov 04, 2020, 01:22 AM

Someone said Trump winning FL gives him a 1/3 chance.

Quote from: kitler53 on Nov 04, 2020, 12:42 AMI'm getting really nervous now. trump is going to win.

My hope is declining

Dr. Pezus · Nov 04, 2020, 01:25 AM

I mean how can one state that already was very republican change things so much?

People on reddit are more optimistic

Xevross · Nov 04, 2020, 01:28 AM

Quote from: Dr. Pezus on Nov 04, 2020, 01:25 AMI mean how can one state that already was very republican change things so much?

People on reddit are more optimistic

Very republican? Florida is the swingiest of swing states, Trump won it by 1.2% last time.

Georgia and NC both favouring Trump on NYT's needles now too.

For god's sake, its 2016 again.