NPD February 2017 Results: PS4 > 395k, XB1 < 240k

[ethomaz]

Using the new info

PS2 (40 months): 22,567,673 + XBOX (40 months): 12,109,300 = 34,676,973
PS3 (40 months) + 360 (40 months) = 26,317,000

 
PS2/XB -1% = 34,330,204
PS3/360 +31% = 34,475,270

PS4/XB1 up to Jan 2017 (39 months): 33,721,000

Using the -1% PS4/XB1 Feb < 609,204
Using the +31% PS4/XB1 Feb < 754,270
Using the lower up than 3DS PS4/XB1 < 651,360

[Legend]

What are the PS4 and XBO totals for US?

[ethomaz]

What are the PS4 and XBO totals for US?

I don't have this data right now because I need to sim previous NPD.

I know the gap in January was close to 1.7m... using that it give us:

PS4 ~17.7m
XB1 ~16.0m

Up to Jan 2017.

[ethomaz]

GAF prediction result is up but only the TOP3 showed.

1. Conduit

[PS4] 410K
[XB1] 210K

2. Primethius

[PS4] 400K
[XB1] 260K

3. Raylan

[PS4] 380k
[XB1] 250k

Using all these info and comparing with all the others predictions (I found only one match)...

PS4 > 385k

[Xevross]

GAF prediction result is up but only the TOP3 showed.

1. Conduit

[PS4] 410K
[XB1] 210K

2. Primethius

[PS4] 400K
[XB1] 260K

3. Raylan

[PS4] 380k
[XB1] 250k

Hmm so looks like PS4 >400k and XB1 <250k. Maybe PS4 ~410k and XB1 ~240k.

[ethomaz]

Hmm so looks like PS4 >400k and XB1 <250k. Maybe PS4 ~410k and XB1 ~240k.

I tried to find predictions not in the TOP3 with the same numbers...

[PS4] 385k
[XB1] 260k

That means at least PS4 > 385k.

Your numbers are probably close to actual numbers... the gap was really that big this month.

[Raven]

I tried to find predictions not in the TOP3 with the same numbers...

[PS4] 385k
[XB1] 260k

That means at least PS4 > 385k.

Your numbers are probably close to actual numbers... the gap was really that big this month.

Fully expecting Xbox numbers to be bad for March. Between Switch launching and PS4 getting a lot of great games, I'm having a hard time imagining it isn't taking a hit this month.

[Xevross]

I tried to find predictions not in the TOP3 with the same numbers...

[PS4] 385k
[XB1] 260k

That means at least PS4 > 385k.

Your numbers are probably close to actual numbers... the gap was really that big this month.

Well I did try and work it out based off the top 3, it wasn't a guess

[ethomaz]

Well I did try and work it out based off the top 3, it wasn't a guess

Ohhhhhh I will use your numbers... thanks you

[Aura7541]

So the February gap is potentially over 150K? That's really big and the Feb NPD period does not count Horizon.

[Xevross]

Ohhhhhh I will use your numbers... thanks you

Since you're quoting my number I did a more exact analysis and got XB1<240k and PS4>395k.

Here's how I got that:

GAF prediction result is up but only the TOP3 showed.

1. Conduit

[PS4] 410K
[XB1] 210K

2. Primethius

[PS4] 400K
[XB1] 260K

3. Raylan

[PS4] 380k
[XB1] 250k

We know the maximum amount that Con can be better than Prime on PS4 is 10k, hence this means that at best Prime can only be 10k closer on XB1 than Con is (for Con to be #1 still), this means XB1 definitely less than 240k

Using this XB1<240k we now look at Ray and Prime. Since XB1<240k, Ray is definitely 10k closer on XB1. Prime beat him though, so Prime must be more than 10k closer on PS4, hence PS4>395k.

So there's no way Xb1 sold more than 240k and no way PS4 sold less than 395k. You might be able to work out better limits like 235k and 397k or something but I didn't see that in the time I no longer have

[ethomaz]

Thank you Xevross.
These numbers are already good enough to have a good picture.

[Dr. Pezus]

Why such a big gap?

[nnodley]

Why such a big gap?

I'd say people getting ps4's after the positive impressions for Horizon?!?!  i'm not sure what else could account for it.

[Aura7541]

Why such a big gap?

- PS4 had Nioh early February. People got very hyped for Horizon after publication of previews and reviews, so consumer interest on the PS4 was maintained.
- XB1 only had Halo Wars 2 and the game had worse reception than the first game. The console RTS genre is extremely niche.
- Hype for the Switch increased as the month went on.