NPD August '16 Predictions

[SWORDF1SH]

***RESULTS IN***

PS4 Prediction	Accuracy	XB1 Prediction	Accuracy	Wii U Prediction	Accuracy
Lordfancypants	175000	90.63%	250000	90.91%	30000	69.57%
SWORDF1SH	160000	100.00%	300000	90.91%	25000	91.30%
Dr. Pezus	165000	96.83%	250000	90.91%
ethomaz	160000	100.00%	230000	83.64%	20000	86.96%
Legend	200000	75.00%	300000	90.91%
Results	160000		275000		23000

Winners
PS4: SWORDF1SH, ethomaz
XB1: Lordfancypants, SWORDF1SH, Dr. Pezus, Legend
Wii U: SWORDF1SH

Last Month
PS4  0.16M
XB1 0.17M
Wii U 0.02M

Last Year
PS4 0.21M
XB1 0.20M
Wii U 0.04M

What happened in August

• MS launched 3 XB1 Slim models
• No Man's Sky released on PS4

Past data courtesy of Aquamarine and The NPD Group

[Lordfancypants]

Ps4 175,000
Xbox 250,000
Wiiu 30,000

I've never guessed before I don't think. I'll be very wrong.  

[Legend]

Oh gosh No Man's Sky will be an interesting one to see. Could be over a million.

[Lordfancypants]

Oh gosh No Man's Sky will be an interesting one to see. Could be over a million.

I wonder if it did well outside the US?

[Legend]

I wonder if it did well outside the US?

On Steam it did 40% in the US so probably.

[SWORDF1SH]

PS4 - 160k
XB1 - 300k
Wii U - 25k

[SWORDF1SH]

From Abdiel over at gaf,

I'm really curious to see how the S is doing everywhere else for stores, because we haven't sold out of them anywhere. We had our burst of preorders, and then some initial interest beyond that, but it really hasn't been all that explosive. The reduced price models have helped more interest, but again, neither bundle has come close to selling out in any store within 200 miles of my home store without any replenishing shipments so far.

They've still had enough new hardware interest to most likely win out over the ps4 for the month in our stores.

Though there hasn't been any dip in ps4 momentum due to comments on the slim or anything. That's basically a non factor. Ps4 keeps trucking along. Just a matter of price saturation I think. New model at a lower price and the premium model will be interesting to see.

NeoGAF - View Single Post -  August 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 8th

[Aura7541]

Interesting assessment from Abdiel. I still think the XB1 beat the PS4, but the gap might be small again. Not 10K small, but 20-30K small.

[Legend]

Guess Amazon could be XBO biased for once. A close month would be interesting.

[Dr. Pezus]

Ps4 165k
XB1 250k

[SWORDF1SH]

Interesting assessment from Abdiel. I still think the XB1 beat the PS4, but the gap might be small again. Not 10K small, but 20-30K small.

20-30k seems way too small. If the gap is only that big then the Xbox One S launch flopped hard.

[Lordfancypants]

20-30k seems way too small. If the gap is only that big then the Xbox One S launch flopped hard.

Yeah, that would not be very good at all.

[Aura7541]

20-30k seems way too small. If the gap is only that big then the Xbox One S launch flopped hard.

Fair enough. I just feel that it won't be a runaway win for the XB1. We saw for July NPD, the XB1 beat the PS4 by only 10K even though the XB1's average sales price was $100 lower than the PS4's.

[SWORDF1SH]

Fair enough. I just feel that it won't be a runaway win for the XB1. We saw for July NPD, the XB1 beat the PS4 by only 10K even though the XB1's average sales price was $100 lower than the PS4's.

That's true. MS have to work a lot harder than Sony to shift their consoles.

[ethomaz]

PS4 - The sales take a big hit in last months maybe because Sony shipment is tiny due the imminent release of Slim and Neo... this will be the MS month btw.

XB1 - The biggest month for Xbox One this year (not in terms of sales but in terms of advantage of competition).

Nothing to say in special about Wii U and 3DS.

Hardware

[PS4] 160k
[XB1] 230k
[WIU] 20k
[3DS] 150k

Software

No Man's Sky > 300k
Madden NFL 17 > 250k
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided > 150k
The King of Fighters XIV < 100k