November 2015 NPD - PS4 1.539m, Xb1 1.296m, 3DS 350k, WiiU 240k, Some SW Up

[Cute Pikachu]

Don't think well get any of those people here.

You just gotta belive

[Xevross]

Thanks for the welcome everyone.

I actually found this forum a while back but just decided to join today. It seems like a great place to discuss games

Bit late but welcome!

Always love your reading your posts, they're very informative and well structured. I hope you stick around!

[ZhugeEX]

It is! We lean a bit heavy towards PlayStation, to be honest, but we always welcome sensible discussion of anything. There are some pretty bright people here. Except for this guy named Mmmfishtacos. Avoid him. He smells funny.

Good to hear. haha

Also Ravens our hottest member just in case you feel naughty.

Well.... um.... I'll keep this in mind

I'm late to the party, but welcome Zhuge! I would have never expected to see you here, but your insights are greatly appreciated

Thanks very much

Cool to see ya zhuge.

Is this the first month you had inside access to the numbers? I missed the NPD fun since you leaked so early!  

Hi Legend,

I have had access on the day before (or after) in the past, I also have access to a number of historical NPD data points as well. But I wouldn't really consider myself an 'insider' or anything. I actually work in the telecommunications sector so know a lot more about the Mobile industry than the Video Games Industry. That being said, I have a huge passion for the Video Games Industry and researching how well the industry is doing overall. Our workplace actually has access to a number of market research reports on the Mobile Industry but every now and then I do get access to Games related content which is how I know some of the things I do, other times I'm able to get data from colleagues or friends and due to my current role as an Analyst I'm able to look a bit deeper into all this data and draw conclusions from it.

For example, my blog, linked below, has an article about an IHS report on the Virtual Reality market and mentions some extended details from the report.

One other thing I will say is that I will never post an article or tweet unless I am at least 90%+ certain that the information is correct. If for some reason I find out at a later point I am wrong then I will always make sure to retract the statement and apologise.

Bit late but welcome!

Always love your reading your posts, they're very informative and well structured. I hope you stick around!

Thanks very much.

I've noticed that whilst this forum is very small, it is also very dedicated to talking about the Video Games Industry and discussing sales data. So I should fit in hopefully!!!

[BananaKing]

The data points are too few to make that conclusion. Plus, we know of smaller markets where the ratio is smaller than in Germany and France (Sweden), somewhere even reversed (Brazil). We also know of similar sized markets where the ratio is bigger (Japan)

Thing is, it's not really based on any logic or data that XB1 is completely dead outside of US+UK+Germany+France.

Heck, let's just remember that MS gave us "almost 10m" shipped in November 2014 iirc, it surely managed to sell 10m by the end of 2014 then. Do you really think it has only sold ~5m this year with November included?

Let's face it, the console isn't THAT dead.

It's being utterly destroyed by PS4 worldwide but there are some limits.

im late to the party on this, i know.

however i am fully with you on this. no way are they still at 14 million. XB1 surely passed the 2 million mark in UK. and along with USA they are at 12 million at both countries together. no way did they just sell 2 million in the rest of the world.

no way is the console that dead.

[Cute Pikachu]

So Zhuge do you know how those two poorly executed Nintendo games do?

[BananaKing]

Hello all,

The Xbox One install base has been a topic of discussion for quite some time now as Microsoft have refused to update us on the situation since the end of 2013 when they confirmed a total of install base of 3 million. The last official sell in figure we have from Microsoft is that they were approaching 10 million unit sales towards the end of November and Satya Nadella confirmed that they had exceeded this number in early December.

Unfortunately sites like VGChartz use "guesstimates" to come to an exact figure and parade it around as if it is official data. One thing I've learnt is that VGChartz data is highly inaccurate. I could write a thesis on how their data drastically differs to official data, I'm not entirely sure how they work but they seem to use sampling methods in order to work out exact numbers (which isn't how that should work) and then also use publicly available data to fill in gaps or correct their mistakes. For example, this month it was clear that VGChartz were not accurate on PlayStation 4 hardware sales in the U.S. and Fallout 4 software sales in the U.S. either. Those are just two examples of many inaccuracies with VGChartz U.S. data this month. So just imagine how inaccurate their data is outside the U.S. and for prior months/years.

There are official market research companies out there such as IDG who compile accurate sell through data and release reports to clients along with forecasts for the consoles over the next year/5 years. IHS are another such company who earlier this year put out a statement that the Xbox One install base is on track to sell through around 20 million units by the end of 2015. Of course this is a forecast so the actual result can vary.

If we are to look at all publicly available data between November 22nd 2013 and November 28th 2015 then we would be able to see that the Xbox One install base has to be over an absolute minimum of 12.9 million. This includes a total of 9.8 million unit sales in the U.S. for the full period, more than 1.6 million unit sales from the UK as of June 2015, more than 420,000 from France as of December 2014, another 380,000 from Germany as of March 2015, 80,000 from Spain as of June 2015 and a further 610,000 units from nine tier 1 countries in 2013.

Now keeping in mind that the above does not include sales for a further 38 countries in 2014 and 2015 as well as half a years sales for the UK, Spain and Germany + a full year of sales in France. I think it is fairly safe to assume that the Xbox One has sold well over 13 Million units to end users as of November 28th 2015. Now when you remember that nine tier 1 countries sold through 610,000 units in 2013 then you can safely assume they will have sold well over that in 2014 and 2015 which tells me that when you add in tier 2 countries, the half year sales from the UK & Spain and the full year sales from Germany and France then it's clear to see that Xbox One sales will be considerably over 13 million.

I don't really want to make an exact estimate because that would make me no better than VGChartz, but hopefully the above data will help show some people that 13 million is an absolute baseline and the real total will be much more.

fantastic post. very informative and paints a light on the XB1 situation and how well it is doing in the rest of the world.

however, i do have a question, if MS was indeed reaching (or have reached) 20 million units sold through. dont you think they would have said so (or will say so when they do).

it seems the general consciousnesses is that the XB1 is extremely far behind the PS4, and not doing so well outside the usa. an announcement of 20 million would be impressive for the XB1 and show that there is a big market for the XB1 still. what is your opinion on this?  

[Max King of the Wild]

I don't know how many they sold or really care but they are probably on the higher end of US making up most of sales than the low end the 360 had.

Xb1 released in the markets that would give them majority of sales months before they released in tier 2 countries. If I remember correctly MS tried a global launch with 360. That means xb1 went months selling in Us and UK. Meaning, each console sold in the US makes it harder for the other countries to grab any % when it was made available. The PS4 launched before the xb1 in countries months before xb1. This prevents xb1 having no competition unlike 360.  And effectively shrinks the market for when the xb1 launches. 60%+ US wouldn't surprise me.

Not to mention, the sales in the countries we know are a tad bloated due to the countries that it wasn't officially launched in yet were actually importing from the UK and such. So the sales in the tier 2 countries officially went to the launch countries instead

[Rorono]

The 20M forecast was made coming off of 2014's holiday.. Sounds like too much optimism after those two good NPD months. It will end at <11M in the US, can't sell 9M outside of it

Another thing.. EA CFO, a few weeks ago, predicted 50-51M combined PS4-X1 install base at the end of the year
Now before you jump on me, two things; first, i'm pretty sure this will get beaten. Holiday sales seem to be better than expected, so he undershot it. Second, it's "just" an EA exec, i know. But i reckon he periodically has access to more info than us mere consumers. I dunno if it's sell through or shipments, if it's every quarter or every month.. but he surely gets something. It's in a publisher's best interest to have this knowledge.

So.. At the time he already knew PS4 has shipped 29.3 at the end of the previous quarter. Given there were 6.4M last holiday quarter, I doubt he expected less than that; but let's round it to 7M because with the price cut he probably expected at least a bit more than that. So that's 36M (rounded) shipped PS4s at the end of the year.
If we take into account units on shelves, that'd only leave, what, 15-18M sell through for X1? But given that expectations are being beaten, we should raise that to 16-19M.
But the most important part here is that a "low" prediction like that seems to indicate lower X1 sell through than what you'd imagine. I doubt he thought PS4 would be below 34M at the end of the year, seems very pessimistc. And 34M would leave X1 with 16-17M. If he thought X1 would only reach 16-17M, then surely it war far from that number whenever he got his last numbers.
Or if you think 34M was too high for PS4, even 33M would only leave it with 17-18.

[ZhugeEX]

So Zhuge do you know how those two poorly executed Nintendo games do?

Which games are you referring to?

fantastic post. very informative and paints a light on the XB1 situation and how well it is doing in the rest of the world.

however, i do have a question, if MS was indeed reaching (or have reached) 20 million units sold through. dont you think they would have said so (or will say so when they do).

it seems the general consciousnesses is that the XB1 is extremely far behind the PS4, and not doing so well outside the usa. an announcement of 20 million would be impressive for the XB1 and show that there is a big market for the XB1 still. what is your opinion on this?  

Thanks.

Microsoft recently confirmed during one of their investor briefings that they would be taking the emphasis away from absolute sales figures and focusing more on engagement KPI's such as the number of active Xbox Live users and the number of hours spent using Xbox applications. Microsoft believe that using these KPI's will help provide investors with a more accurate view of how the Xbox brand is doing and how engagement is increasing thanks to the launch of Windows 10 on PC & Console.

Ultimately it is a way for them to stop sharing sell in or sell through figures for the console. Similar to how Sony stopped reporting on PS3 sales in FY2012 and Vita sales in FY2014. At the end of the day it's up to Microsoft to decide what they want to share with us and based on their latest PR last week about NPD it seems fairly clear that even if their sales are up year on year they may not give a number as they did in previous reports, instead choosing to focus on Xbox Live engagement numbers.

There is no doubt that the PlayStation 4 is considerably ahead of the Xbox One and continues to outsell the XB1 worldwide.

Another thing.. EA CFO, a few weeks ago, predicted 50-51M combined PS4-X1 install base at the end of the year

EA actually increased this to 52m-53m very recently.

I believe their original number was around 49m from 6 months ago. So it's great to see that they believe both consoles will perform better by the end of the year.

The IHS report that I referenced earlier suggested 34 million PS4's and 20 million XB1's, however it is likely that the PS4 number will have been revised up.

[ethomaz]

MS will share only MAU number now.

[Max King of the Wild]

Which games are you referring to?

Thanks.

Microsoft recently confirmed during one of their investor briefings that they would be taking the emphasis away from absolute sales figures and focusing more on engagement KPI's such as the number of active Xbox Live users and the number of hours spent using Xbox applications. Microsoft believe that using these KPI's will help provide investors with a more accurate view of how the Xbox brand is doing and how engagement is increasing thanks to the launch of Windows 10 on PC & Console.

Ultimately it is a way for them to stop sharing sell in or sell through figures for the console. Similar to how Sony stopped reporting on PS3 sales in FY2012 and Vita sales in FY2014. At the end of the day it's up to Microsoft to decide what they want to share with us and based on their latest PR last week about NPD it seems fairly clear that even if their sales are up year on year they may not give a number as they did in previous reports, instead choosing to focus on Xbox Live engagement numbers.

There is no doubt that the PlayStation 4 is considerably ahead of the Xbox One and continues to outsell the XB1 worldwide.

EA actually increased this to 52m-53m very recently.

I believe their original number was around 49m from 6 months ago. So it's great to see that they believe both consoles will perform better by the end of the year.

The IHS report that I referenced earlier suggested 34 million PS4's and 20 million XB1's, however it is likely that the PS4 number will have been revised up.

Quick question. Does NPD break down months into weeks? If so, any idea of marketshare BF?

[Rorono]

EA actually increased this to 52m-53m very recently.

Yeah, they had to. 50-51 was going to get beaten. They revised it after BF week.. Probably had a rough idea of good NPD performance I reckon. That, plus 30.2M PS4 sold before the biggest 6 weeks of the year...
Going with that, PS4 sold 4.1M (official number) in those 6 weeks last year. If it sold the same this year (it'll be more but I'm going with the more pessimistic scenario), that'd leave their X1 prediction at 17.7-18.7M. So, we have EA theoretically predicting 17.7-18.7M X1s at the end of the year, after BF has already come and gone. It could only be higher than this (for the purposes of their prediction) if they were really pessimistic about the PS4 and expected it to sell less than last year in these last few weeks.. Unlikely, right? Specially given the current holiday performance.

[ZhugeEX]

Quick question. Does NPD break down months into weeks? If so, any idea of marketshare BF?

I think they do, but I've never seen it personally. So maybe it's something they release to certain clients or in a different report.

Yeah, they had to. 50-51 was going to get beaten. They revised it after BF week.. Probably had a rough idea of good NPD performance I reckon. That, plus 30.2M PS4 sold before the biggest 6 weeks of the year...
Going with that, PS4 sold 4.1M (official number) in those 6 weeks last year. If it sold the same this year (it'll be more but I'm going with the more pessimistic scenario), that'd leave their X1 prediction at 17.7-18.7M. So, we have EA theoretically predicting 17.7-18.7M X1s at the end of the year, after BF has already come and gone. It could only be higher than this (for the purposes of their prediction) if they were really pessimistic about the PS4 and expected it to sell less than last year in these last few weeks.. Unlikely, right? Specially given the current holiday performance.

Yup, PS4 sold through 4.1m between November 23rd 2014 and January 4th 2015. I would be surprised if the PS4 wasn't up this year. In fact let me add some more info.

I actually wrote this out on a different forum but it might be interesting to post here as well.

As we are all aware, the PlayStation 4 is now more than half way through its second holiday season (excluding launch) and is on track to have a very successful year. We've just learnt that US sales for the month of November exceeded 1.5 million* whilst in Japan the console sold around 110,000 units**. Together these numbers are significantly up over last year and so I'd like to pose a question. Can PS4 sales this holiday match or exceed any of the PS2's first three holiday sales periods.

The second holiday for PlayStation 2 (Nov & Dec 2002) achieved record breaking sales for hardware and software sell through worldwide. In North America the PlayStation 2 sold through more than 4 million units to consumers during November and December, In Europe and PAL territories the console sold through more than 3.4 million and in Japan the console sold through 0.94m. Combined with the rest of the world, this led to a total of 8.5 million PlayStation 2's sold through during the holiday period, a 24% increase over the same period of the previous year.

These record breaking sales along with holiday sales for 2001 and 2003 are written below.

PlayStation 2 holiday sales (Nov & Dec worldwide sell through)***
2001: 6.9m
2002: 8.5m
2003: 7.8m

The PS4's first holiday season was in 2014, Sony sold through 4.1 million units*** to end users between November 23rd 2014 and January 4th 2015. The console had been released in over 123 countries and regions at this time.

Now lets compare that to the PlayStation 2 which sold through more than 5.3 million units worldwide between November 26th 2001 and January 6th 2002. Of that number more than 1.1 million were from Japan and 2.5 million were from North America with the remaining 1.7 million coming from Europe & PAL territories. Of course including the whole of November then worldwide sell through totalled 6.9m as mentioned above.

I think it is fairly clear at this point, when looking at Holiday 2015, that North America will account for at least 3 million unit sales this holiday and Europe / PAL territories should be able to easily match and exceed that number. For Japan though I don't think it will be able to perform well enough and this may be one of the main reasons why holiday sales fall short of the records listed above.

So my question is do you think that PlayStation 4 sell through during November and December will be able to match or even exceed any of the 3 holiday periods listed above for PlayStation 2?

*Sell through figures according to The NPD Group
**Sell through figures according to Media Create
***Sell through figures of PlayStation 4 and PlayStation 2 are estimated by SCEI

[Raven]

I think they do, but I've never seen it personally. So maybe it's something they release to certain clients or in a different report.

Yup, PS4 sold through 4.1m between November 23rd 2014 and January 4th 2015. I would be surprised if the PS4 wasn't up this year. In fact let me add some more info.

I actually wrote this out on a different forum but it might be interesting to post here as well.

As we are all aware, the PlayStation 4 is now more than half way through its second holiday season (excluding launch) and is on track to have a very successful year. We've just learnt that US sales for the month of November exceeded 1.5 million* whilst in Japan the console sold around 110,000 units**. Together these numbers are significantly up over last year and so I'd like to pose a question. Can PS4 sales this holiday match or exceed any of the PS2's first three holiday sales periods.

The second holiday for PlayStation 2 (Nov & Dec 2002) achieved record breaking sales for hardware and software sell through worldwide. In North America the PlayStation 2 sold through more than 4 million units to consumers during November and December, In Europe and PAL territories the console sold through more than 3.4 million and in Japan the console sold through 0.94m. Combined with the rest of the world, this led to a total of 8.5 million PlayStation 2's sold through during the holiday period, a 24% increase over the same period of the previous year.

These record breaking sales along with holiday sales for 2001 and 2003 are written below.

PlayStation 2 holiday sales (Nov & Dec worldwide sell through)***
2001: 6.9m
2002: 8.5m
2003: 7.8m

The PS4's first holiday season was in 2014, Sony sold through 4.1 million units*** to end users between November 23rd 2014 and January 4th 2015. The console had been released in over 123 countries and regions at this time.

Now lets compare that to the PlayStation 2 which sold through more than 5.3 million units worldwide between November 26th 2001 and January 6th 2002. Of that number more than 1.1 million were from Japan and 2.5 million were from North America with the remaining 1.7 million coming from Europe & PAL territories. Of course including the whole of November then worldwide sell through totalled 6.9m as mentioned above.

I think it is fairly clear at this point, when looking at Holiday 2015, that North America will account for at least 3 million unit sales this holiday and Europe / PAL territories should be able to easily match and exceed that number. For Japan though I don't think it will be able to perform well enough and this may be one of the main reasons why holiday sales fall short of the records listed above.

So my question is do you think that PlayStation 4 sell through during November and December will be able to match or even exceed any of the 3 holiday periods listed above for PlayStation 2?

*Sell through figures according to The NPD Group
**Sell through figures according to Media Create
***Sell through figures of PlayStation 4 and PlayStation 2 are estimated by SCEI

For now it will be difficult for PS4 to exceed those PS2 sales records. Xbox One is strong competition for PlayStation 4 in North America and Japan isn't eating up consoles like they used to. There is a chance that 2016 will change all of that. The huge amount of big name JRPGs releasing next year, a bloated exclusive release schedule for PS4, and a reduced price for the entire year could drive up PS4 demand in those regions significantly. If Japan jumps back on the console train and Xbox One falls behind in North America that could put the PS4 in a position to at least come close to PS2 sales records. Give it good enough deals or bundles and it could surpass it. PSVR may also help. If VR succeeds in generating mass interest it could help bump sales because of those looking for a more accessible and possibly cheaper option that's well supported.

[ethomaz]

Japan is holding PS4 to beat PS2 records.