November 2015 NPD - PS4 1.539m, Xb1 1.296m, 3DS 350k, WiiU 240k, Some SW Up

Started by Xevross, Dec 08, 2015, 01:05 PM

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Rorono

#15
Dec 08, 2015, 04:26 PM
Few things to keep in mind
We know the Halo 5 LE sold 93k in October. We also know that at least on Amazon all of PS4's November bundles were performing much better that Halo LE in the weeks leading to release, gathering more pre orders. So, I think it's not dangerous to assume that each bundle alone in the same period (around 10 days), sold >100k, and that's just the bundles themselves, not total PS4 sales. Stretching the period to the whole month, we should be looking at a minimum of 150k for each, so 450k for the three bundles. Then we're missing the NDC which would have had average sales in the first 3 weeks but monster ones in BF due to being the main bundle. All signs pointing to PS4 having a better BF than last year, so that should be a minimum of 500k in BF? I think. So IMO 950k is the absolute minimum, the lowest ceiling, for PS4 numbers. It also doesn't take into account a likely boost in NDC (or COD) bundle sales caused by F4 release in week 2. It's also predicated on the possibility of Nov bundle sales quickly dwindling after release. So, again, minimum.
X1 is harder to predict cause they had strong free games promos, but only one new bundle. Last year a big chunk of the numbers were due to the release of a cheaper AC bundle and a decent-selling new COD bundle. With just the modest F4 bundle, it depends a lot on how the promos drove old bundle sales pre-BF, specially outside of Amazon (where it did "good" but nowhere near PS4).
And of course another thing that can hurt predictions in these big months is not having a good picture of stock situation. We only rely on anedoctal reports and online store stock...

Legend

#16
Dec 08, 2015, 04:29 PM
I don't want the industry to be doomed.

Plus look at the games this nov vs last. Fallout 4 and Battlefront are huge. Doubt 2 mil wil happen realistically, it's a long shot!

Dr. Pezus

#17
Dec 08, 2015, 04:29 PM
Quote from: Xevross on Dec 08, 2015, 02:13 PM-Gulps-

NeoGAF - View Single Post -  November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th
NeoGAF - View Single Post -  November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th
Keep in mind that I'm predicting both consoles to flirt just shy of 1 million for November, which is still an incredible feat that indicates a massively-accelerated sell-through at U.S. Retail from previous months.  Last November, the Sony PlayStation 4 sold 831K. In November 2013, the Xbox One sold 909K. A sub-1 million November close to 1 million isn't unprecedented for the two consoles and certainly lies within the realm of possibility. The idea behind a sub-1 million PS4 and Xbox One bet stems from an observation that a temporarily lower price simply isn't as compelling as it once was. My argument depends on a relative malaise at Black Friday retail as reported by retail trackers and other channels, along with my belief that company PR was referencing revenue comparable sales and/or shipments into the retail channel and worldwide Black Friday performance (where the Black Friday institution is gaining prominence) to paint themselves in the best possible light. PR has historically been very tricky on how it exploits ambiguous wording so I refuse to trust any of it insofar that it accurately represents U.S. sell-through at retail in terms of growth. And, the Sony PlayStation 4 had a 7% year-over-year decline in the October 2015 U.S. Games Industry Report despite officially lowering its MSRP to $349.99 on October 9th, perhaps indicating to us that temporary price cuts to $299.99 wouldn't have the same level of appeal as they once did in the 2015 video games market.
 
Well it's still just a prediction lol

Aura7541

#18
Dec 08, 2015, 05:05 PM
We also need to take into account the Disney Infinity Battlefront bundle. While it was retail exclusive to Walmart, Cornbread said that it sold out quickly and Walmart is #2 in marketshare.

BananaKing

#19
Dec 09, 2015, 09:47 AM
PS4 1.4 million
XB1 1.2 million
3DS 430k
WiiU 390k
360  110k
PS3 70k
Vita 30k

ethomaz

#20
Dec 10, 2015, 01:36 PM
Hype

Xevross

#21
Dec 10, 2015, 03:27 PM
Quote from: ethomaz on Dec 10, 2015, 01:36 PMHype
I hope we get some good pr quickly. I don't want to have to wait until tomorrow morning!

Dr. Pezus

#22
Dec 10, 2015, 03:41 PM Last Edit: Dec 10, 2015, 03:59 PM by Legend

ethomaz

#24
Dec 10, 2015, 08:12 PM
Quote from: Y2KevI'm a MAU girl
In a MAU world
Life is so fantastic
cause my users are active

Legend

#25
Dec 10, 2015, 08:25 PM
What has super troopers have to do with anything?

Xevross

#26
Dec 10, 2015, 09:27 PM
2 hour hype

Xevross

#27
Dec 10, 2015, 09:47 PM
NeoGAF - View Single Post -  November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th

QuoteSo yeah, about that aggregate predictions being aggressive thing... I was wrong about that.  Really, really wrong.
 

Its a big one

Xevross

#28
Dec 10, 2015, 09:53 PM

Not sure how much he knows

Raven

#29
Dec 10, 2015, 09:54 PM
Quote from: Xevross on Dec 10, 2015, 09:47 PMNeoGAF - View Single Post -  November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th

Its a big one
It really wouldn't surprise me to see this be bigger than some expected. The upward movement of SKUs on Amazon yearly over last month was huge. It may account for a max of 8% of the market, but you cannot ignore how quickly those bundles shot up.
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