Movie Thread

Started by Dr. Pezus, May 25, 2014, 04:14 PM

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Xevross

The Numbers has some graphing stuff
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Joker-(2019)/Batman-v-Superman-Dawn-of-Justice/Wonder-Woman-(2017)/Aquaman-(2018)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

Optimistically, there's a small chance Joker tops Aquaman domestically.  Pessimistically, it'll fall below Batman v Superman.


https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/international/all-movies/cumulative/all-time

Pretty impressive how well Joker is doing internationally though.  It's beaten all of the Dark Knight movies.  I think Aquaman is the only DC movie above it there.
Yeah the numbers has always had great graphs, that was one of the things that made people go there even when BOM was still good.

Yeah Joker internationally is absolutely astounding, in some countries like Greece and Spain its just doing a phenomenal performance, like top 5 all time good. In the UK its just become the biggest 15-rated film ever. Domestically, legs are still really strong with better drops every week. Its one of the craziest box office runs ever, that's for sure.

We thinking Terminator will have an ok drop for its second weekend?

I don't remember which website was talking about its performance but one thing seemingly hurting it is just how bad the last terminator was. If that is the case, the drop might be relatively small.
Opening weekend was real bad and legs are looking fairly normal so far, so its not going to get close to recovering from the bad OW. I'd say avoiding a drop bigger than 60% into its second weekend would certainly be okay, but not enough to send it on its way to matching Genisys' $89M total. Whatever the legs look like, this film is making a loss. Performance globally is just too way, way too bad for a $185m budget.

Xevross

Nov 10, 2019, 08:07 PM Last Edit: Nov 10, 2019, 08:10 PM by Xevross
Terminator with a bad 63% second week drop. This movie is going to lose a lot of money. Doctor Sleep bombs with a $14m opening. This is the worst start to a November box office since 2000, with the top 10 in both of the first 2 weekends failing to sum to $100m. Seems like audiences are saving their money after Joker with Frozen 2 and Star Wars looming, both with very impressive pre-sales (as expected).

Frozen 2's first 2 days of pre-sales were better than the full first week for the lion king, although Frozen 2 has the benefit of thanksgiving the week following its OW to boost these numbers. Opening weekend itself seems to be tracking below TLK's $180m.

Joker should hit $1b within a week, which is a phenomenal achievement for a $60m budget R-rated non-action film. After never having more than 5 $1bil+ films in a single year, we're going to end this year with at least 9, crazy.

Legend

Saw Midway today, was good. That is all.

the-pi-guy

Joker should hit $1b within a week, which is a phenomenal achievement for a $60m budget R-rated non-action film. After never having more than 5 $1bil+ films in a single year, we're going to end this year with at least 9, crazy.
In a year with Endgame, and honestly I think this might be the craziest run this year.
-Set to be the cheapest billion dollar movie ever.  
-most profitable comic book movie ever
-first billion dollar R rated movie.  

Pretty insane.  


BananaKing

In a year with Endgame, and honestly I think this might be the craziest run this year.
-Set to be the cheapest billion dollar movie ever.  
-most profitable comic book movie ever
-first billion dollar R rated movie.  

Pretty insane.  


How would it be the most profitable comic book movie ever?

Dr. Pezus

How would it be the most profitable comic book movie ever?
Measured by dividing revenue with cost

Xevross

How would it be the most profitable comic book movie ever?
Measured by dividing revenue with cost
Correcto, although in terms of actual $ profit I think it might only be behind Endgame anyway, its pretty insane.

the-pi-guy

Correcto, although in terms of actual $ profit I think it might only be behind Endgame anyway, its pretty insane.
Not sure how true this is:
Joker Set to Earn Almost as Much Profit as Avengers: Endgame

Xevross

Nov 11, 2019, 09:47 PM Last Edit: Nov 11, 2019, 09:53 PM by Xevross
Not sure how true this is:
Joker Set to Earn Almost as Much Profit as Avengers: Endgame

Yeah they don't cite a source so its hard to say. But even harder to say regarding Endgame, because it was made together with IW so finding an exact budget for it is hard. Either way, I highly doubt Endgame will be toppled by Joker.

Using normal takings ratios, Endgame brought in approximately $1.2B for Disney while Joker will bring in roughly $500m (based on estimated overall $350m dom and $750m international). I expect Endgame will make much more from TV deals and home entertainment sales as well, but even assuming that's the same I really can't see Endgame costing $700m total, never mind $700m more than Joker.

I'm really not knowledgeable in this regard, but I'd say the estimates of $600m cost for Endgame are probably okay, meaning that's a $600m profit from the box office. Joker's BO profit will probably be more like $350-400m, so its way off. Could well be touch and go with Infinity War though, which is in second place for comic book movies, ($900m BO taking and a ~$500m budget put it at $400m profit). I'd back IW making more from TV and home as well though, so maybe IW will still hold onto second place. Not really any way to tell for sure.

Anyway, all 3 of these movies made ridiculous profit, and are seriously impressive in many different ways.

BananaKing

Measured by dividing revenue with cost
That's not the most profitable that the biggest return on investment

Xevross

Joker is the first film of the decade to last 6 weeks at #1 in the UK. Pretty rad.

Xevross

Nov 11, 2019, 10:33 PM Last Edit: Nov 11, 2019, 10:53 PM by Xevross
I'm very excited to follow Frozen 2 starting in a week or so's time, its going to be a really interesting run. The first film was obviously a major breakout, and did so well thanks to incredible legs. Frozen 2 will be much more about the OW but should have good legs as well. It really could go anywhere from $1-2b, but I think around the $1.27b of the first film is where it will most likely land. Any better than that would be excellent, I'm sure Disney aren't expecting it.

A super, super big variable is Japan, where the first film was an ultra mega smash hit with $246m, its the second most attended film of all time at the Japanese box office (20.03 million tickets), only behind Spirited Away. Frozen 2 will surely decline in Japan, as many expect, but how well it can limit the decline will be a key factor. If it can pull of the unthinkable and grow from the first film in Japan... well... if its performing that well then $1.64b+ (above TLK) is probably happening.

To get a sense of how absolutely ludicrous Frozen's BO run in Japan was, here is its first 13 weekends up to the point it finally started to trail off and act like a normal film:

¥763 million ($7.5 million)
¥872 million ($8.5 million), +13%, ¥3.01 billion ($29.6 million)
¥881 million ($8.6 million), +01%, ¥5.28 billion ($51.6 million)
¥850 million ($8.3 million), -03%, ¥7.71 billion ($74.8 million)
¥841 million ($8.2 million), -01%, ¥9.28 billion ($90.7 million)
¥826 million ($8.1 million), -02%, ¥10.73 billion ($104.8 million)
¥772 million ($7.6 million), -07%, ¥12.10 billion ($118.4 million)
¥1.12 billion ($11.1 million), +46%, ¥14.62 billion ($143.4 million)
¥738 million ($7.2 million), -34%, ¥17.08 billion ($167.4 million)
¥807 million ($7.9 million), +09%, ¥18.53 billion ($181.8 million)
¥700 million ($6.9 million), -13%, ¥19.85 billion ($194.6 million)
¥759 million ($7.5 million), +08%, ¥21.23 billion ($208.1 million)
¥592 million ($5.8 million), -23%, ¥22.30 billion ($218.6 million)

Weekends in Japan are only counted as Sat-Sun, which is why the jumps in the totals are quite large compared to the weekend grosses.

the-pi-guy

That's not the most profitable that the biggest return on investment
I'm not really sure.  There's a lot of unknowns.

Supposedly between actors taking a cut, China and the $500 million production and P&A budget, Endgame's profit for the studio was closer to $500m.  

Which is about where Joker is now in terms of profit due to low P&A and production budget.  

Although who knows how the numbers actually turn out.  I would imagine only Disney and WB know their numbers and they probably wouldn't want to share it.

Xevross

I'm not really sure.  There's a lot of unknowns.

Supposedly between actors taking a cut, China and the $500 million production and P&A budget, Endgame's profit for the studio was closer to $500m. 

Which is about where Joker is now in terms of profit due to low P&A and production budget. 

Although who knows how the numbers actually turn out.  I would imagine only Disney and WB know their numbers and they probably wouldn't want to share it.

You're mixing certain numbers up. $500m was Endgame's approximate profit from its box office run, it will be much more in total.

Infinity War's total profit was $500m, and that was based off $900m box office returns for the studio. Endgame's returns are $300m higher, and the movies were made together, with the cost for each essentially being equal, about half of a big total. So if you assume costs were the same as for IW, then Endgame is heading for $800m+ profit.

Now, perhaps there is a bigger budget on Endgame for various reasons, but I think that's counterracted by the fact that Endgame is setting home entertainment records, and TV deals will be super favourable for the new biggest film ever. Endgame's profit should be at the very least $700m.

the-pi-guy

You're mixing certain numbers up. $500m was Endgame's approximate profit from its box office run, it will be much more in total.

Infinity War's total profit was $500m, and that was based off $900m box office returns for the studio. Endgame's returns are $300m higher, and the movies were made together, with the cost for each essentially being equal, about half of a big total. So if you assume costs were the same as for IW, then Endgame is heading for $800m+ profit.

Now, perhaps there is a bigger budget on Endgame for various reasons, but I think that's counterracted by the fact that Endgame is setting home entertainment records, and TV deals will be super favourable for the new biggest film ever. Endgame's profit should be at the very least $700m.
*Facepalm*
I did.  Ouch.

I have no idea how I made that mistake

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