Movie Thread

Started by Dr. Pezus, May 25, 2014, 04:14 PM

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Xevross

A round of applause for Joker, the first ever R-rated $1b movie! I wonder what film will be the next

Xevross

Nov 16, 2019, 10:02 PM Last Edit: Nov 16, 2019, 10:06 PM by Xevross
Terminator has not had good legs at all. A big ol' flop all round. An even bigger flop is Charlie's Angels, with a disastrous $8m opening weekend. Ford v Ferrari has fantastic WOM and is heading for a nice opening, should perform well over the holiday period. Box office is all set for Frozen 2 next week.

Dr. Pezus

Terminator has not had good legs at all. A big ol' flop all round. An even bigger flop is Charlie's Angels, with a disastrous $8m opening weekend. Ford v Ferrari has fantastic WOM and is heading for a nice opening, should perform well over the holiday period. Box office is all set for Frozen 2 next week.
Frozen not getting the excellent reviews I was expecting. Might not have the legs like frozen 1

Xevross

Frozen not getting the excellent reviews I was expecting. Might not have the legs like frozen 1
Indeed, legs were always going to be worse but who knows where it will go now. If audiences still love it then reviews don't matter.

the-pi-guy

I don't think reviews are going to matter at all.  

The first movie has so many lines of toys, clothes, etc that are still selling, it is obvious there is huge staying power with the first one.  The second one will do decent numbers just by virtue of being a sequel to Frozen.  

Bet on it.  

Disclaimer: this week I am very tired, so it's totally possible that these are the ramblings of a nincompoop.  

Xevross

I don't think reviews are going to matter at all.  

The first movie has so many lines of toys, clothes, etc that are still selling, it is obvious there is huge staying power with the first one.  The second one will do decent numbers just by virtue of being a sequel to Frozen.  

Bet on it.  

Disclaimer: this week I am very tired, so it's totally possible that these are the ramblings of a nincompoop.  

You're right of course. This movie could have gotten godawful reviews and it'd still make a boatload of money. Like even 10% on rottentomatoes and it'd be $800m+ easy. With solid reviews, the film is at least good, so $1b is locked already. Question is does it beat the first film ($1.27b)... right now I'd bet on no, mainly due to Japan most likely declining massively.

Xevross

Here's a wild one: currently, Rise of Skywalker is expected to gross less at the overseas box office than Joker. Joker is going to have something like $710-740m overseas, and The Last Jedi for example had only $690m overseas. Star Wars isn't the WW behemoth it could have been had they kept up TFA's form.

Xevross

Previews for Frozen 2 are heading towards the $10-11m range it seems, which is rather weak. However, this film has the most back-loaded pre-sales I've ever seen, so numbers can only improve from there. Tracking is saying the domestic opening weekend is heading for around $110m, which would be quite disappointing. However, experts on BOT, using presales data from AMC and Cinemark for the weekend are estimating an OW more in the $150m range, which would be great. Let's see.

South Korea presales just ended and it narrowly missed out on becoming the second best ever presales, with 1.11m tickets pre-sold compared to Infinity War's 1.15m (Endgame holds the record with 2.32m). That's an amazing performance. Pre-sales in China are also pointing to an OW of higher than the lifetime performance of the first film ($48m). Things are looking good!

Xevross

Nov 21, 2019, 11:14 PM Last Edit: Nov 22, 2019, 12:04 AM by Xevross
The last few days of presales for Frozen 2 were a lot weaker than expected. Presales now seem to be heading for only $9m. This number on its own means basically nothing though, this is the first ever animation blockbuster opening on a schoolday in the era of thursday previews, so its hard to judge anything. Everything about this movie is hard to predict, with thanksgiving coming in its second week and presales being so backloaded. If anything, we won't be able to judge too much about what its total gross may look like until the second weekend numbers come in. Still, I think an opening weekend of less than $130m would be quite disappointing for how hyped frozen 2 should be.

Here's the predictions from the major outlets:

deadline 90-135 (112.5 avg)
the-numbers.com 125
pro.BO 130
BOR 136

Overseas its looking good, going about as expected so far in places like South Korea and France.


Xevross

Nov 22, 2019, 03:04 PM Last Edit: Nov 23, 2019, 09:27 AM by Xevross
Insider on BOT suggesting that those predictions are indeed looking to be too low, going by early friday numbers. So it begins. Preview numbers should be here soon anyway.

Edit: $8.5M previews. Solid but nothing spectacular. We should get early friday numbers soon. BOT guys are estimating about a $50M friday (incl. previews) based on pre-sales, which would be absolutely fantastic and probably lead to a $150M+ weekend. Saturday presales seem to be exploding everywhere in the world compared to friday, which is a rather odd consistent trend to have.

New edit: openiung day heading to more like $42M. Apparently Frozen 2 is as presale heavy as Infinity War, which is crazy. Cinemascore A- is disappointing (first was A+) so legs won't be spectacular. Looks like its heading for a good but not amazing run domestically, should still improve over the first film but not much. Needs overseas to go crazy if it wants a historic run.

Speaking of, the film is going absolutely mad in Japan. Seems like the all time admissions record for Saturday is being demolished - in fact its 6pm now and it looks like the record is already broken. Still, OW in Japan will be tiny compared to total due to nature of market, legs are way more important. South Korea is a similar story, its racing Endgame for the #1 all time saturday admission record and its gonna be close.

Xevross

Nov 24, 2019, 07:48 PM Last Edit: Nov 24, 2019, 07:50 PM by Xevross
$350m global debut for Frozen 2 including $127m estimated for domestic market. Good start domestic but not crazy, lets see how thanksgiving week goes.

Globally though, this is fantastic. Smashes the global animation record and it hasn't opened in a lot of places. Simply phenomenal performance in Asia, South Korea is absolutely huge with over $30m and posting 2 of the 3 biggest dayt of all time. In Europe it seems to be matching TLK in major markets like the UK and Germany.

Depending on legs we could be looking at $1.5b+ and legs don't need to be anywhere near as good as the original Frozen. F2's international debut was up 233% over the original in like-for-like markets, simply stunning.

Xevross

Final numbers $130.2m dom, $358.4m global opening for Frozen 2. Animation record demolished. Let's see how far the girls can go!

Legend

I saw Maleficent 2 since my cousin worked on it. Liked it a fair bit more than the first but I really didn't like the first at all so...

I want to see Ford vs Ferrari. Kinda reminds me of how PlayStation started.

Xevross

Dec 01, 2019, 04:44 PM Last Edit: Dec 01, 2019, 04:47 PM by Xevross
Frozen 2 still going fantastically. $287m dom total after 2nd weekend is great, looks like $500m+ may happen. Real story is overseas, where its at $451m already. Fantastic holds everywhere, looks like its going to blast past Frozen's all time animation record worldwide, perhaps on its way to $1.5B WW total. Its almost halfway there already, $738m so far before actuals come in.

Legend


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