Movie Thread

Started by Dr. Pezus, May 25, 2014, 04:14 PM

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Dr. Pezus



Good song. Press reactions from the premiere are extremely positive, looks like we're going to have the huge hit that we expected from TLK. Question is how huge. $1-1.5b range or could it challenge $2b... gonna be fun to follow.
Next post shows lots of negative reviews lol. Just a reminder that press reactions mean nothing

Xevross

Not a rt fan (their scores never seem to reflect what I see) but ouch with that tweet.

Felt the same way about Jungle Book though so maybe this will still print money.
Agreed, RT will never influence whether I'm going to watch a film or not but its always interesting to discuss. Jungle Book was 95% on RT by the way, so this is a huge drop from that.

This will print money, no way its making less than $1b but I was thinking it could challenge $2b...  if audience reaction is anywhere close to reviewers then that isn't happening. Out in China tonight so we'll get a first glimpse at audience reactions soon.


the-pi-guy

Saw this older Adam Sandler video where he told a bunch of jokes. There were hardly any jokes like he'd say today. Few naughtiness jokes, no fart jokes, etc.

It made me believe the "conspiracy" that Adam Sandler is just making worse movies on purpose to see how long people will watch him.  

Xevross

Jul 14, 2019, 03:30 PM Last Edit: Jul 14, 2019, 03:43 PM by Xevross
Endgame now only $7.2m away from Avatar after estimated $2.8m weekend worldwide. Record is going down for sure now, although may still take a month.

Spidey at $847m WW after 2nd weekend and legs looking good, will be touch and go for $400m domestic ($275m currently) but already has set a new record for a Spidey film overseas. Should be heading for $1.1b easily. Weekend estimate is $145.3m worldwide.

the-pi-guy

The crawl!  

Xevross

The crawl!  
Yep, gonna feel crazy when Endgame finally gets there. Also TS4 and Aladdin both seem to be heading for $1b, fantastic year for Disney. Aladdin keeps legging super well and TS4 had an incredible debut in Japan. We're gonna tie the record for number of $1b grossers in a year before TLK, Frozen 2 and Star Wars come out.

nnodley

~6-7 million left till Endgame over takes Avatar

Xevross

~6-7 million left till Endgame over takes Avatar
Hey! You're not me! 8)

Legend

Yeah I don't know how good Lion King will do. My mom was planning to see it Sunday but reviews have changed her mind (worried it'll be another number Dumbo). Can't get more anecdotal than this haha.

Xevross

Yeah I don't know how good Lion King will do. My mom was planning to see it Sunday but reviews have changed her mind (worried it'll be another number Dumbo). Can't get more anecdotal than this haha.
All depends on WOM. If general audiences love it then people like your mom will probably convinced to go.  Box office wise its made a great start pretty much everywhere its opened so far and we'll find out about domestic soon. Anything $180m+ for OW is very good imo, $200m+ would be great.

TLK is going to debut in a record 4725 theaters in North America, taking away the record of Endgame (4662). Top 4 theater numbers will be TLK, Endgame, Spidey FFH and TS4. Either there's been some new theater expansion going on in the US or disney/MCU is really using their muscle this year. That TLK number is almost 200 above the pre-Endgame record. Insane jump really for a market as settled as US/Canada.

Endgame may be announced as new #1 all time this weekend as well, with Spidey FFH and Aladdin bearing down on $1b its exciting times! Gonna make a guesstimate of $1.6-1.7B for TLK before numbers start to be reported in earnest. See how that goes, I'm assuming general audience loves it.

Xevross

Jul 19, 2019, 02:36 PM Last Edit: Jul 19, 2019, 03:28 PM by Xevross
Early TLK domestic numbers! $22-25M Thursday previews estimate from deadline, with BOT insider agreeing $22-25m looks likely. He also adds full opening day is looking $90m+ and OW should be $220m+. Must note these are extremely early reads and could be quite a bit off, but its absolutely insane if that comes to pass, would be right on SW:TLJ for 4th best ever, and this is a family film which should have great legs.

This is gonna be a really fun box office run to follow. Unfortunately TLK has hurt other films with everything dropping big on thursday, Spidey hitting $400m total is looking a bit iffy now unless it recovers well on Friday.

Overseas-wise, China is a bit meh but Aus/NZ and Europe #s are phenomenal so far.

Edit: and so it begins. $23M thursday previews for TLK.

Dr. Pezus

The lion king is a phenomenon tbh. Too bad it wasn't a better remake because they potentially could've reached like 2b

Xevross

The lion king is a phenomenon tbh. Too bad it wasn't a better remake because they potentially could've reached like 2b
Technically it could reach $2b if audiences really love it. A meh performance in China has certainly badly hurt its chances though. I'd put it at ~5% chance right now. Still thinking my $1.6-1.7b estimate is on track. $1.671b+ beating Jurassic World for 6th place would be a fantastic result and about as good as anyone could expect, $2b is still an extraordinary feat and takes something truly special with everything falling in place to reach.

Some industry sources are saying ~$80m dom friday, while BOT insider still sticking with $93m. That's a huge difference, like if it is 93 instead of 80 that's worth 50mil+ for the total run.

Xevross

Jul 19, 2019, 10:58 PM Last Edit: Jul 19, 2019, 11:12 PM by Xevross
Most reliable BOT insider is saying $80m as well now, so seems like Charlie was off after all. He does try to give earlier numbers than anyone else which leads to inaccuracies but that's two big ODs in a row he's got wrong now (he said Spidey was looking ~$50m when it came in at $39m), although Spidey was very difficult to judge being on a tuesday.

What this means is TLK is very presale heavy compared to similar films, so legs may not be that spectacular. Also audience scores aren't as positive as Aladdin and Cinemascore may only be A-. Perhaps will end up more like $1.4-1.5b, we'll see. Also this means that $200m OW may not be happening, which is sad (although still a great opening of course).

Xevross

$78.5m official OD estimate for TLK ($23m thurs previews, $55.5m friday). Early saturday estimate is $58-60m from BOT insider, that would be a relatively weak sat bump and would mean $190m OW. A very good start but nothing special considering what film this is, basically the expected performance on OW for a TLK remake, I'd say.

Well, we'll have a much better picture in a day or so especially once we get overseas weekend estimates.

I think I'll be watching it this weekend, I guess my opinion of the film will shape how I'm rooting for the BO run.


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