i'm going to come out agaisnt your prediction.
an external disc drive is very "unconsole" like. its needlessly complicated for the user and i don't see it being all that cost saving for sony either. imo it is probably cheaper to tack on a disc drive to the console like ps5 did then to sell the it as a stand alone device.
either next gen is fully discless or it is supported the same as this gen except instead of the disc sku seeing higher demand the discless sku sees higher demand. i can definetly see the discless sku being marketed as the lead platform though.
also what is your evidence that ps5/XS are viewed as $400 and $500?
Consoles already have awkward accessories that are unconsole like. Plus the 360 literally had exactly what I'm suggesting, just for a different purpose.
Making the disc drive a separate device would make it simpler for most users imo. We're talking ~2027 here, a full 14 years after gamers could go 100% digital. Many younger players will have never even touched a disc.
Offer a disc drive in America just for collectors essentially and offer it in other markets that still use discs.
My evidence is Xev's post. COD was 77% digital first week, or around 3/4. It's reductive but if most people buy their games digitally, then most people will be fine with the digital PS5.
