NPD analyst: "Hardware cycles as we knew them are over"

Started by the-pi-guy, Nov 22, 2018, 12:46 AM

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the-pi-guy

NPD analyst: "Hardware cycles as we knew them are over" | ResetEra

 
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I wanted to take a moment to discuss about NPD analyst and ERA member Mat Piscatella's opinions about hardware cycles. Basically from October results, one of his "quick hit takes" is that "hardware cycles as we knew them are over".

 He then explained:





 Edit:

 MatPiscatella said:  
Quote
So, probably should have used more concrete context. "Highly unpredictable" is really in reference to an expected range of error in a hardware forecast. Of course it isn't random, and of course hardware sales can be forecast. But the range of error is higher now. "Highly unpredictable" can signal randomness, which is certainly not the case here. Bad word choice on my part.Click to expand...
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 And I think he's right. It's clear that both PS4 and Xbox One are still seeing tremendous success even when we are relatively late in their life cycles. 3DS is also seeing a similar situation in the US. This of course can be attributed to the Pro and X revisions, but I think there's also the other important factor mentioned by Mat: "bigger consumer response to promotion". But why is exactly this happening? What makes this generation's promotions more appealing to people than last gen's?

 This also ties into Nintendo's ex-president statement about Switch having a 10 year life cycle. With revisions that boost the performance, there's really no need for a full successor in a long time if this trend continues.

 But returning to Sony and Microsoft, it's evident they are working on next-gen consoles and will release as soon as 2020. Should those consoles be developed with longer life cycles in mind? Multiple revisions instead of a succesor in 6-7 years, so they have a 10 year cycle like Nintendo?  

darkknightkryta

Sony's more or less has 10 year cycles for their consoles though.  As far as Iwata's statements go... who knows with him XD.

ethomaz

I'm not sure what he is trying to say... 360 have big spike in 6th and 7th year without any hardware refresh... PS2 and PS3 too.

What changed?

the-pi-guy

I'm not sure what he is trying to say... 360 have big spike in 6th and 7th year without any hardware refresh... PS2 and PS3 too.

What changed?
PS2 didn't.  
It peaked in year 3, and steadily dropped.  

Not sure about 360, or PS3, though.  

Xevross

PS2 didn't.  
It peaked in year 3, and steadily dropped.  

Not sure about 360, or PS3, though.  
360 got a bump in the middle due to kinect, and PS3 just had a long dog cycle because it launched so expensive and had lots of price cuts.

Ps1 and PS2 were both regular 6 year cycles, PS3 was 7 because of the above, PS4 should be 7 as well, because it's selling so well. Still seems pretty regular to me, we just get Pro version bumps in the middle now as well.

the-pi-guy

With most consoles the curve looks like this:
       /^\
    /        \
  /            \

But PS4 looks like this:  
             / \  
    /\    /     \
  /    \/      
/

Ps1 and PS2 were both regular 6 year cycles, PS3 was 7 because of the above, PS4 should be 7 as well, because it's selling so well. Still seems pretty regular to me, we just get Pro version bumps in the middle now as well.
I think PS4 Pro, Spiderman, and the lack of pricecuts this gen has probably screwed up the regular curve.  

Xevross

With most consoles the curve looks like this:
       /^\
    /        \
  /            \

But PS4 looks like this:  
             / \  
    /\    /     \
  /    \/      
/
I think PS4 Pro, Spiderman, and the lack of pricecuts this gen has probably screwed up the regular curve.  
PS4 never went down, it was just flat  :P

the-pi-guy

PS4 never went down, it was just flat  :P
True it also never went down a second time.  

Xevross

True it also never went down a second time. 
Lol yep, last year was the peak with 20.4M. I'm expecting something like 18M this year, only due to their stock. They could have sold 21M+ if they wanted to.