I'm very excited to follow Frozen 2 starting in a week or so's time, its going to be a really interesting run. The first film was obviously a major breakout, and did so well thanks to incredible legs. Frozen 2 will be much more about the OW but should have good legs as well. It really could go anywhere from $1-2b, but I think around the $1.27b of the first film is where it will most likely land. Any better than that would be excellent, I'm sure Disney aren't expecting it.
A super, super big variable is Japan, where the first film was an ultra mega smash hit with $246m, its the second most attended film of all time at the Japanese box office (20.03 million tickets), only behind Spirited Away. Frozen 2 will surely decline in Japan, as many expect, but how well it can limit the decline will be a key factor. If it can pull of the unthinkable and grow from the first film in Japan... well... if its performing that well then $1.64b+ (above TLK) is probably happening.
To get a sense of how absolutely ludicrous Frozen's BO run in Japan was, here is its first 13 weekends up to the point it finally started to trail off and act like a normal film:
¥763 million ($7.5 million)
¥872 million ($8.5 million), +13%, ¥3.01 billion ($29.6 million)
¥881 million ($8.6 million), +01%, ¥5.28 billion ($51.6 million)
¥850 million ($8.3 million), -03%, ¥7.71 billion ($74.8 million)
¥841 million ($8.2 million), -01%, ¥9.28 billion ($90.7 million)
¥826 million ($8.1 million), -02%, ¥10.73 billion ($104.8 million)
¥772 million ($7.6 million), -07%, ¥12.10 billion ($118.4 million)
¥1.12 billion ($11.1 million), +46%, ¥14.62 billion ($143.4 million)
¥738 million ($7.2 million), -34%, ¥17.08 billion ($167.4 million)
¥807 million ($7.9 million), +09%, ¥18.53 billion ($181.8 million)
¥700 million ($6.9 million), -13%, ¥19.85 billion ($194.6 million)
¥759 million ($7.5 million), +08%, ¥21.23 billion ($208.1 million)
¥592 million ($5.8 million), -23%, ¥22.30 billion ($218.6 million)
Weekends in Japan are only counted as Sat-Sun, which is why the jumps in the totals are quite large compared to the weekend grosses.
A super, super big variable is Japan, where the first film was an ultra mega smash hit with $246m, its the second most attended film of all time at the Japanese box office (20.03 million tickets), only behind Spirited Away. Frozen 2 will surely decline in Japan, as many expect, but how well it can limit the decline will be a key factor. If it can pull of the unthinkable and grow from the first film in Japan... well... if its performing that well then $1.64b+ (above TLK) is probably happening.
To get a sense of how absolutely ludicrous Frozen's BO run in Japan was, here is its first 13 weekends up to the point it finally started to trail off and act like a normal film:
¥763 million ($7.5 million)
¥872 million ($8.5 million), +13%, ¥3.01 billion ($29.6 million)
¥881 million ($8.6 million), +01%, ¥5.28 billion ($51.6 million)
¥850 million ($8.3 million), -03%, ¥7.71 billion ($74.8 million)
¥841 million ($8.2 million), -01%, ¥9.28 billion ($90.7 million)
¥826 million ($8.1 million), -02%, ¥10.73 billion ($104.8 million)
¥772 million ($7.6 million), -07%, ¥12.10 billion ($118.4 million)
¥1.12 billion ($11.1 million), +46%, ¥14.62 billion ($143.4 million)
¥738 million ($7.2 million), -34%, ¥17.08 billion ($167.4 million)
¥807 million ($7.9 million), +09%, ¥18.53 billion ($181.8 million)
¥700 million ($6.9 million), -13%, ¥19.85 billion ($194.6 million)
¥759 million ($7.5 million), +08%, ¥21.23 billion ($208.1 million)
¥592 million ($5.8 million), -23%, ¥22.30 billion ($218.6 million)
Weekends in Japan are only counted as Sat-Sun, which is why the jumps in the totals are quite large compared to the weekend grosses.