Not really. It's definitely a conservative estimate and probably driven even more so by the uncertainty of the public reaction since this isn't easy to market. It's probably not going to be cheap, either. Don't look for VR to explode early on. This is something that will rely on word of mouth so the burn is going to be slower than, say, motion controls.Yeah, at this point, it's hard to say how successful VR will be.
I'm becoming more optimistic as time goes on, seeing all the devs and all the games. But we still don't know the price, and don't know how willing most people are to jump onto the bandwagon.
Better to say "it'll fail" and be wrong, and still have clients that are making money.
Than the opposite to say "it'll do great" and be wrong, and have clients invest in the wrong places.