NPD November 2018 Results

Started by ethomaz, Dec 14, 2018, 11:26 AM

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ethomaz

Dec 14, 2018, 11:26 AM Last Edit: Dec 19, 2018, 12:24 PM by ethomaz
From Magicpork.

Quote
Switch: Voltorb
3DS: Rattata
PS4: Koffing
XBO: Kingler
Other: Vulpix

YoY:
Switch: +75%
3DS: -39%
PS4: -13%
XBO: -3%
Other: -6%

The top-selling titles (physical only) were RDR2, Black Ops 4 and Pokemon Let's go Pikachu/Eevee
Using last year data.

PS4 ~1475k
SW ~1355k
XB1 ~1340k
3DS ~260k

UPDATED WITH RESETERA

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Here are the numbers for November 2018:

November 2018 tracked spending across video game Hardware, Software, Accessories and Game Cards totaled $2.7 billion, flat when compared to a year ago. Gains in Hardware, Accessories and Game Card spending were offset by a decline in Software due to the shift of the launch of Call of Duty into the October month.

Year-to-date spending across video game Hardware, Software, Accessories and Game Cards has grown 16 percent when compared to the same period a year ago, to $13.2 billion. This is the highest year-to-date total spend achieved since the $13.9 billion achieved between January and November 2010.


SOFTWARE

Best Year for Software since 2011: Dollar sales of Console, Portable and PC Games Software totaled $1 billion in November 2018, declining 15 percent when compared to a year ago. The shift in launch timing for Call of Duty from November to October is the driver of the change. Year-to-date dollar sales of Console, Portable and PC Games Software exceeded $5.8 billion, a 9 percent increase over the same time period last year. This is the highest year-to-date total for Software spending since the $7 billion achieved in the year-to-date 2011 comparable period.

RDR2 is the best selling game of the month: Red Dead Redemption 2 is the best-selling game of November 2018 and is the 2nd best-selling game year-to-date. With two months in market, sales of Red Dead Redemption 2 now exceed the lifetime sales of the previous title in the franchise, Red Dead Redemption, by nearly 40 percent.

Black Ops 4 is the best selling game this year: Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII is the second best-selling game of November, and remains the best-selling game year to date. Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII is the second fastest selling game on PlayStation 4 and Xbox One in history, trailing only 2017's Call of Duty: WWII. This is the fifth consecutive year, and ninth time in the last 10 years, that a title from the Call of Duty franchise has been the best-selling game over the January through November time period

Fallout 76 falls short of 4 and New Vegas: Fallout 76 is the 4th best-selling game of November, despite digital not being reported for Bethesda Softworks published titles. Fallout 76 physical sales achieved the third highest launch month sales in franchise history, trailing only Fallout 4 and Fallout New Vegas.

Pokemon has a strong opening; Pokemon: Let's Go Pikachu and Pokemon: Let's Go Eevee are the #5 and #6 best-selling games of November, respectively. Launch month sales of Pokemon: Let's Go Pikachu are the second highest in franchise history, trailing only Pokeman Stadium, which launched on the Nintendo 64 in the March 2000 tracking period. Please note that Pokemon Let's Go sales totals include only physical sales, as digital sales are not currently reported for Nintendo published titles. According to Nintendo, the titles have sold 2 million units in the US, including digital sales.

Spyro Remastered charts in the Top Ten: Spyro Reignited Trilogy is the #9 best-selling game of November. The launch month dollar sales of Spyro Reignited Trilogy are more than 30 percent higher than the combined launch month sales of all other Spyro games in history (excluding Skylanders).

Black Friday deals help God of War: Sony's God of War returns to the monthly top 20 best-sellers list for the first time since August, ranking as the #16 best-selling game of November. It is currently the #7 best-selling game year-to-date.


HARDWARE & ACCESSORIES

Hardware spend is up YTD: For the 2018 year-to-date period, hardware spending has increased 14 percent, to $3.9 billion. Spending gains for Xbox One, Switch, PlayStation 4 and Plug N Play devices such as the NES Classic Edition and SNES Classic Edition have driven growth.

All current gen consoles sell over 1.3m each: For the first time in history, three Console platforms achieved more than 1 million units sold in a November month, as the Switch, PlayStation 4 and Xbox One each generated over 1.3m units of sales. It is only the second time in history any 3 platforms achieved more than 1 million units sold in a November period, the first occurred in November 2010, when the Nintendo DS, Wii and Xbox 360 achieved the feat.

Hardware for November: PlayStation 4 was the leading hardware platform of November 2018 in unit sales. Nintendo Switch was the leading hardware platform of November 2018 in dollar sales. The PlayStation 4 remains the leader in hardware platform dollar sales year to date.

Accessories and Game Card spending hits an all time high: Total spending on Accessories and Game Cards grew 35 percent in November 2018 when compared to a year ago, to an all-time high of $503 million. Year to date, Accessories and Game Card spending has grown 35 percent when compared to a year ago, to $3.5 billion. This is also an all-time high.


RANKINGS (November 2018)
Physical and Full Game Digital for publishers in the Digital Leader Panel, ranked on dollar sales

* Digital sales not included
 ^ PC digital sales not included


PS4

XB1

Switch

Year to Date

Xevross

Dec 14, 2018, 11:36 AM Last Edit: Dec 14, 2018, 12:19 PM by Xevross
Holy shame that is so much better for XB1 than I think anyone expected, where did that come from?? PS4 and Switch about 100k apart as expected, but perhaps a little bit lower on both than I was hoping.

Good month overall.

Also you should change the title to 2018 :P

Xevross

Dec 14, 2018, 11:50 AM Last Edit: Dec 14, 2018, 12:17 PM by Xevross
By my numbers, YTD:

PS4: 4525k
XB1: 3427k
Switch: 3855k

PS4 would need a 1.2M December for its best year ever (not happening), XB1 would need a 1.5M December (not happening), Switch would need a 1.05M December (easy peasy).

PS4 has had its best Jan-Nov yet, but this is going to be its worst December, unless Sony suddenly announce a deal. PS4 should still finish up YOY overall though.

XB1 is having a good year and is only 150k off its best Jan-Nov total, should easily finish up YOY.

Switch is now approximately 500k above last year up to Nov, and should end up finishing around a million ahead with a 1.5M Dec last year.

Now, LTD:

PS4: 27,512k
XB1: 23,567K
Switch: 8,739k

So yeah, we were all right and Nintendo was massively lowballing with that 8.2M lifetime figure. Well, lets say it was the maximum possible 8.29M as of the 26th, then do we believe they sold 440k in the last 5 days of the month without any deals, after selling what would have been only about 900k all month before that? I don't.

Based on these and last year's performance, here's my December prediction:

PS4: 950k
XB1: 1200k
Switch: 1950k

Sony seem determined to hit around their 17.5M target despite being capable of much higher.

ethomaz


Xevross

I think you are too low on Switch :D
Well I think without cyber monday the YOY boost will be smaller than Nov. But also, I don't want to predict 2M+ then see it miss, it'd just be disappointing  ;D

Xevross

Some graphs! First one is a fun one I made, as if they launched next to each other to judge relative performance. Funny how closely they're all performing in the first two years. The only really standout months so far are PS4's first September and XB1's second November.






DerNebel

Yes, shockingly enough Sony cares more about hitting their hardware goals, while also hitting and potentially beating their profit goals, by doing exactly what they said they would do (less promotional activity), than they care about "winning the year" or gaining a bunch more low value customers (people who wait until a system is $200 in its 5th year don't buy many games or subscription and probably don't care about ecosystems either).

Always fascinating to see armchair analysts fail to grasp that huge corporations don't think like the average moron on Resetera.

Xevross

Dec 14, 2018, 02:20 PM Last Edit: Dec 14, 2018, 02:26 PM by Xevross
Yes, shockingly enough Sony cares more about hitting their hardware goals, while also hitting and potentially beating their profit goals, by doing exactly what they said they would do (less promotional activity), than they care about "winning the year" or gaining a bunch more low value customers (people who wait until a system is $200 in its 5th year don't buy many games or subscription and probably don't care about ecosystems either).

Always fascinating to see armchair analysts fail to grasp that huge corporations don't think like the average moron on Resetera.
Indeed they are doing exactly as they said they would. Anyone who talks about "winning" NPDs based on unit sales rankings is a fanboy anyway, its not something you should care about. Everything should be in context. Sony have decided they have enough in their user-base and are going more for profit on hardware now, it sucks that we won't see PS4 at its true potential but that's just the way it is.

Hard to say exactly what Sony was doing compared to last year though, since the weeks pre-BF were down YOY and they shipped more BF units this year. Did they expect to do better this year and are therefore unhappy with early month sales?

The other two consoles are nothing but a resounding success when put in context, but PS4 is harder to judge.

Edit: to judge PS4 anyway, I'd say it was a good month but Sony won't be quite as happy as MS or Nintendo with these results.

Kerotan

Get in! Ps4 the champion! Delighted. 6th year now and still winning.

Cute Pikachu

Smash Bros looking at an easy 3 Million next month. Wonder how that'll effect hardware.

My guess is

2.6 Million Switch
1.3 Million Xbox One
1.2 Million PS4
The Vizioneck Nintendo Fanboy!

Switch Software Sales Guide:
http://vizioneck.com/forum/index.php?topic=5895.msg218699#new

Xevross

Smash Bros looking at an easy 3 Million next month. Wonder how that'll effect hardware.

My guess is

2.6 Million Switch
1.3 Million Xbox One
1.2 Million PS4
My, you are a bold one.

I think you're way too high on Switch, although it is a tough one to call. You're definitely too high on PS4, its probably not breaking 1 million.

Xevross

Dec 15, 2018, 12:21 AM Last Edit: Dec 15, 2018, 12:33 AM by Xevross
So if Switch hits 1.9M in December (which everyone seems to expect) then it will have beaten PS4s peak NPD year. Switch is on 3.855M so far and PS4's peak was 5.736M (2015). By all accounts, this is a great year for Switch.

So glad to see Nintendo's return to form after the disastrous WiiU. Hopefully the Switch can end up selling at DS/ Wii pace, as it is a combined handheld and console after all.

Dr. Pezus

So if Switch hits 1.9M in December (which everyone seems to expect) then it will have beaten PS4s peak NPD year. Switch is on 3.855M so far and PS4's peak was 5.736M (2015). By all accounts, this is a great year for Switch.

So glad to see Nintendo's return to form after the disastrous WiiU. Hopefully the Switch can end up selling at DS/ Wii pace, as it is a combined handheld and console after all.
Well there's no way it will sell at DS' pace worldwide lol but it might get close to the Wii. Still don't think it can beat it unless they increase the longevity of the system, which they usually don't do (except with 3DS I guess)

Cute Pikachu

Luckily with the switch it should be getting ever more games in 2019 and 2020.
The Vizioneck Nintendo Fanboy!

Switch Software Sales Guide:
http://vizioneck.com/forum/index.php?topic=5895.msg218699#new

BananaKing

Any numbers for software?