Will Bethesda Games become exclusive?

Started by the-pi-guy, Sep 24, 2020, 04:00 PM

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Will Zenimax games become exclusive to Xbox?

Yes, all games will start to be exclusive
2 (40%)
Yes, unless competitors join Gamepass
0 (0%)
Partially, select titles like TES VI will stay multiplatform
3 (60%)
Partially, select smaller titles will stay multiplatform
0 (0%)
No
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 5

the-pi-guy

A lot of people are concerned.
There are different ways this could go.

kitler53

Sep 24, 2020, 04:50 PM Last Edit: Sep 24, 2020, 04:56 PM by kitler53
i voted yes but "exclusive" in this case means console exclusive.  MS will bring the games to PC.  it's sony MS wants to kill.  playstation will not get these games once existing public commitments are met.  that means multiplat for things like deathloop, doom eternal, ect where a public committment to ps5 has been made alla the outer worlds.  anything where public committment to ps5 has not been made will be kept off of playstation alla hellblade. 

i'm not sure exactly where that leave TES VII or starfield specifically.  i'm not sure if ps5 is committed or just assumed at this point.


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Xevross

Putting the big games on PS5 doesn't devalue game pass. If they bought it to boost their console platform it would make sense but game pass is different. They also want to recover money from this investment, not releasing the big games on PS loses a lot of profits.

the-pi-guy

I basically see 3 ways it will go down:

1.) They won't go exclusive. They will push value instead of exclusives. Which this is practically what they're already doing. In this scenario, they say "buy it for $60 on PS5, or you can buy Gamepass with Xbox and all these games come free".

2.) Use Zenimax as a way to leverage Sony to get GP on their platform. This isn't inconsistent with what they have said.

3.) Full exclusive. Use it to bolster the Xbox platform.  


Personally I see 1, trying for 2 the most likely.

DerNebel

If you believe these future titles will come to PS5 you are unreasonably optimistic.

the-pi-guy

If you believe these future titles will come to PS5 you are unreasonably optimistic.
Phil wanted Gamepass on other platforms.

It's not impossible.  TES is the closest thing to Minecraft in terms of popularity that MS has (I know there's a massive gap.).
MS made Minecraft Dungeons on PS4, and Switch.

Not unreasonable to suggest they might do the same here considering how much money is on the table.  
At least with TES.  Everything else there's not as much money.

DerNebel

^ I was writing a reply but was logged out when I tried sending it and lost the entire thing. Rewriting it is too much work now.

So short story: I disagree.

the-pi-guy

^ I was writing a reply but was logged out when I tried sending it and lost the entire thing. Rewriting it is too much work now.

So short story: I disagree.
If you weren't in rich reply, try here:

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DerNebel

Sep 24, 2020, 08:29 PM Last Edit: Sep 24, 2020, 09:36 PM by DerNebel
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Thanks, but that's still only half of it. Doesn't matter now. :D

the-pi-guy

Thanks, but that#s still only half of it. Doesn't matter now. :D
Pffft. Post the half, coward!  
/S

Legend

I think it'll be a gradual shift. Starfield if it's 2021 will come to both. Post 2021 nothing will be on PS5 unless it's also on switch/mobile.

the-pi-guy

I think it'll be a gradual shift. Starfield if it's 2021 will come to both. Post 2021 nothing will be on PS5 unless it's also on switch/mobile.
Technically everything will be on mobile.

the-pi-guy

It is probably just naive optimism.  

A lot of this depends on how much MS believes in Gamepass.  Somewhere along the lines Netflix pretty much doesn't care about what used to be their old competition. It seems pretty clear that MS wants Gamepass to be like Netflix.  

If they can get 100 million or even 200 million people subscribing to Gamepass, that's massive money.  That's the kind of money that makes you forget Xbox exists. Even if the average sub is $10, that's 1 to 2 billion every single month.

It starts to matter less if people are playing on your boxes if they are still paying to be in your ecosystem.

kitler53

Sep 25, 2020, 11:49 AM Last Edit: Sep 25, 2020, 11:52 AM by kitler53
It is probably just naive optimism. 

A lot of this depends on how much MS believes in Gamepass.  Somewhere along the lines Netflix pretty much doesn't care about what used to be their old competition. It seems pretty clear that MS wants Gamepass to be like Netflix. 

If they can get 100 million or even 200 million people subscribing to Gamepass, that's massive money.  That's the kind of money that makes you forget Xbox exists. Even if the average sub is $10, that's 1 to 2 billion every single month.

It starts to matter less if people are playing on your boxes if they are still paying to be in your ecosystem.
part of my reason for thinking bethesda is will remain exclusive is my assertion that those kind of numbers are straight up unachievable.

1. netflix is the gold standard in streaming services and it has 182 million subscribers
    - netflix is tv.  tv is far more universally consumed than gaming is.
    - netflix is global.  netflix is in markets where game streaming is technologically not possible since the internet requirements are soo much higher for gaming.
 
2. ms's content is not well rounded.   there are lots of gamers in the world but ms's content only caters to 1 kind of gamer.   i can't imagine the nintedo fanatics seeing any value in ms's service because there isn't any nintendo style content on the service.  hell, as a sony gamer i see little content i like because i'm into the epic single player experience like GoW and too much of ms is online mp stuff.  the bethesda acquisition broadens their appeal some but content wise it's still limited in appeal.  my understanding are there are a lot of sports gamers,.. those that only play fifa, madden, 2k21.

3. casuals are casual and casuals are the norm.  we all know that the average console user only has ~10 games in their library.    spread over a generation of gaming that means they are only buying 1 game a year.    even if they buy that at full price ($70) that is still a lot less money then paying for gamepass ($180/year).  the people seeing value in this service are only the truely hardcore gamer in which they buy at least $180 in software a year.   i think that number is quite a bit higher than the average gamer.   hell, i have like 300 ps4 games in my library and $180 is only around what i pay a year since i wait for titles to drop into the sub $20 range.


i don't know where MS thinks they are going to find 100+ m gamers that are willing to subscribe to a $180/year service that misses some of the generations biggest games.  that's a lot of gamers.  that's a lot of money for most people.


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DerNebel

Sep 25, 2020, 12:32 PM Last Edit: Sep 25, 2020, 01:32 PM by DerNebel
part of my reason for thinking bethesda is will remain exclusive is my assertion that those kind of numbers are straight up unachievable.

1. netflix is the gold standard in streaming services and it has 182 million subscribers
    - netflix is tv.  tv is far more universally consumed than gaming is.
    - netflix is global.  netflix is in markets where game streaming is technologically not possible since the internet requirements are soo much higher for gaming.
 
2. ms's content is not well rounded.   there are lots of gamers in the world but ms's content only caters to 1 kind of gamer.   i can't imagine the nintedo fanatics seeing any value in ms's service because there isn't any nintendo style content on the service.  hell, as a sony gamer i see little content i like because i'm into the epic single player experience like GoW and too much of ms is online mp stuff.  the bethesda acquisition broadens their appeal some but content wise it's still limited in appeal.  my understanding are there are a lot of sports gamers,.. those that only play fifa, madden, 2k21.

3. casuals are casual and casuals are the norm.  we all know that the average console user only has ~10 games in their library.    spread over a generation of gaming that means they are only buying 1 game a year.    even if they buy that at full price ($70) that is still a lot less money then paying for gamepass ($180/year).  the people seeing value in this service are only the truely hardcore gamer in which they buy at least $180 in software a year.   i think that number is quite a bit higher than the average gamer.   hell, i have like 300 ps4 games in my library and $180 is only around what i pay a year since i wait for titles to drop into the sub $20 range.


i don't know where MS thinks they are going to find 100+ m gamers that are willing to subscribe to a $180/year service that misses some of the generations biggest games.  that's a lot of gamers.  that's a lot of money for most people.
I pretty much agree. Until I see it happening I remain convinced that 100 million users on a service like this are fantasy numbers.

People sometimes tout this 2 billion gamers number as a reason for why this would happen, but if you look at that group and what it's made up of, it's easy too see the people that would have no interest in something like Gamepass.

What do mobile gamers want with Gamepass? They are conditioned to have games be free to play. Why would they pay $180 a year on this?

What do all the online gamers who have their one or two go-to titles that they play exclusively want with Gamepass? Especially the ones on PC, where like the biggest games are again free to play.

What do the stereotypical casual dude bros, who only buy COD and Fifa/Madden every year, want with Gamepass? They are not saving money with it.

Even among the core I assume there are many people like me, who rarely, if ever, just browse stores to randomly try out games that they weren't already interested in prior. If I want a game I usually know months, if not years ahead of launch and unless reviews or other circumstances persuade me otherwise, I will also then buy those games day 1. Unless more than $180 worth of games that I want every year release day 1 on Gamepass (currently that number is sitting at a big fat $0 btw.) I have no value in Gamepass. And I imagine there are many like me.

There's a reason that not once throughout this industries history a generational console install base has gone much higher than 250 million and it's not because consoles were too expensive. There are simply not that many people interested in the games experience provided by console games and I don't see taking that same experience, lessening it (streaming) and then selling it for $180 a year subscription is suddenly going to dramatically expand that pool.

Remember Microsoft had similar delusions before, where they thought they could sell between 400 million and 1 billion Xbox One's, so they are no strangers to dramatically overshooting with their goals.

The scary thing about this is though, that if they want to seriously get to that 100 million number, they will buy more studios and publishers to try and concentrate more of the core player pool on their service and that thought geniunely grosses me out.