Virgin Orbit is fully dead. Was a weird moment a while ago where it looked like they were going to try and survive their bankruptcy but nope.
So which company is next?
Firefly seems good. They have a contract selling engines to Astra and have partnered with Northrop Grumman. Antares's first stage is pretty much dead thanks to the Russian war so Firefly was contracted to replace it.
Astra is essentially a dead company. They are moving to a bigger rocket but even if that goes perfectly I doubt they'll find enough customers to stay in business. SpaceX has been wildly successful with their Transporter missions (small satellites launched at a fixed price on a fixed schedule) and every small launcher has been feeling the pressure.
Relativity failed their maiden launch but quickly abandoned the rocket and 3D printing. They're now focused exclusively on building a Falcon 9 competitor. Doubt they'll have much success but they have a lot of funding. They'll be fine for a few years.
ABL is probably going to pivot just like Relativity. They failed their maiden launch and have a second attempt coming up. If it fails, I bet they cancel the rocket and move to a bigger one. The common trend here is that small launch is dead.
Vector is trying to make a comeback but come on, they're dead.
Rocketlab unlike the others is a very established company. They just bought Virgin Orbit's headquarters and have had 33 successful Electron launches. They've also diversified into manufacturing satelite components so they're not at any risk of going bankrupt. Still though, the launch side of their business might have some struggles ahead. Electron has a limited future and while Neutron was supposed to be a Falcon 9 killer, it's looking pretty equivalent. It will struggle against starship.
Stoke is a new player that has some pretty cool concepts. They'll probably fail but they're working on a fully reusable small rocket.
Meanwhile United Launch Alliance is rumored to be for sale. Hopefully Lockheed buys them so they stay in Colorado.
So which company is next?
Firefly seems good. They have a contract selling engines to Astra and have partnered with Northrop Grumman. Antares's first stage is pretty much dead thanks to the Russian war so Firefly was contracted to replace it.
Astra is essentially a dead company. They are moving to a bigger rocket but even if that goes perfectly I doubt they'll find enough customers to stay in business. SpaceX has been wildly successful with their Transporter missions (small satellites launched at a fixed price on a fixed schedule) and every small launcher has been feeling the pressure.
Relativity failed their maiden launch but quickly abandoned the rocket and 3D printing. They're now focused exclusively on building a Falcon 9 competitor. Doubt they'll have much success but they have a lot of funding. They'll be fine for a few years.
ABL is probably going to pivot just like Relativity. They failed their maiden launch and have a second attempt coming up. If it fails, I bet they cancel the rocket and move to a bigger one. The common trend here is that small launch is dead.
Vector is trying to make a comeback but come on, they're dead.
Rocketlab unlike the others is a very established company. They just bought Virgin Orbit's headquarters and have had 33 successful Electron launches. They've also diversified into manufacturing satelite components so they're not at any risk of going bankrupt. Still though, the launch side of their business might have some struggles ahead. Electron has a limited future and while Neutron was supposed to be a Falcon 9 killer, it's looking pretty equivalent. It will struggle against starship.
Stoke is a new player that has some pretty cool concepts. They'll probably fail but they're working on a fully reusable small rocket.
Meanwhile United Launch Alliance is rumored to be for sale. Hopefully Lockheed buys them so they stay in Colorado.
