The challenge to make Gamepass work

Started by the-pi-guy, May 10, 2022, 11:16 PM

previous topic - next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

the-pi-guy

We have talked about this several times, but we haven't done much of an analysis of it. The issue with making a good analysis of it is that there are a ton of variables. But I think we can at least see what kind of uphill battle Microsoft has to make Gamepass work.  
A few statements that we can take for granted:
  • Subscription services need constant new content to keep players engaged with the service.
  • Subscriptions need to at least break even to be sustainable.


Multiplayer games and RPGs tend to be good types of games to keep players invested for hundreds of hours. People put hundreds of hours into games like Skyrim, Call of Duty. So I think it is obvious why MS specifically acquired Zenimax and Activision.  

The problem on Sony's side is that they don't create games like these. They create high quality, but usually shorter titles. They can't have people subscribe for a month to play God of War and then stop. They would obviously lose quite a bit of revenue/profit. Even if Sony were creating a God of War tier title every month to keep people subscribed, that still would only appeal to certain groups of people.

Whether game pass or similar is sustainable is dependent on being able to create enough content to appease enough users. This is dependent on the number of users, what preferences they have, what cost the company is able to make content for, whether the users like that content.

The reality is, there are probably a practically infinite number of situations where Game pass is sustainable and where it's not sustainable.

the-pi-guy

To add to the OP, it's also possible that there are enough people who would just be interested in getting Skyrim + CoD + whatever else. Even if they wouldn't pay for whatever else, it's possible the sheer amount of content might push someone over the edge to subscribe.

In short a lot of variables.

kitler53

I did a revenue analysis before and calculated MS needs 80 million subscribers to equal their prior software revenues from unit sales. 

not in that calculation is gamepass is doing more and more of releasing "games" that aren't really complete and then make you buy mtx.  

but your point is exactly why I am in protest of gamepass.  the business model means making games worse to fit the "player engagement" model.  
          

Legend

How often do people play games? The hardcore gamers put in a couple hours every day but what about the millions needed to make gamepass worth it? I think I average 2 hours a week which I imagine is on the lower end.

Also not every game needs to be gow level. I think AAA every 6 months would be enough, as long as ratchets, miles, and demons souls are released regularly.

the-pi-guy

Also not every game needs to be gow level. I think AAA every 6 months would be enough, as long as ratchets, miles, and demons souls are released regularly.
I wasn't very clear about this so I apologize.

I was more implying that GoW tier games aren't really enough and they're not sustainable. They'd at the very least have to push out a lot more games like Ratchet.

kitler53

How often do people play games? The hardcore gamers put in a couple hours every day but what about the millions needed to make gamepass worth it? I think I average 2 hours a week which I imagine is on the lower end.

Also not every game needs to be gow level. I think AAA every 6 months would be enough, as long as ratchets, miles, and demons souls are released regularly.
that's the main point as to why i think gamepass is unsustainable or at the very least why i think it will never reach 80 million + subscribers.    

the average games per generation is like 7.   that includes whales like me that have libraries that are in the dozens to hundreds.   the average person in my friends list logs into their playstation about once per month.    how the hell does MS think the average person is going to be willing to pay for a $180 subscription for access to hundreds of games when they play less than 1 game per year?!?!

that's why i think gamepass is sooo unsustainable.   the "whales" love it because it can save them lots of money vs. buying games.   ...but there just aren't enough "whales" to sustain the subscription base.   with F2P games and library rental and mobile and such there are cheaper ways to game then gamepass.   ...but gamepasses main competitors are "being a parent" and "going to the game" and "going out to dinner" and "TV" and "fixing that dang leaky sink again" and all the other things in life that keep most people from playing "52 games: 1 year"