The gaming industry is dead. MS to buy Activision for 70 billion

[the-pi-guy]

Microsoft buys maker of Candy Crush for about $70 billion https://t.co/m6eW6b4Q96

— CP24 (@CP24) January 18, 2022

[the-pi-guy]

Funnily enough, by gaming revenue:
Sony > Microsoft + Zenimax + Activision (in other words combined)

[the-pi-guy]

Some fascinating behind-the-scenes info on Microsoft/Activision via @dinabass https://t.co/luaEGlRpJ5 pic.twitter.com/UtWAqTNHnE

— Jason Schreier (@jasonschreier) January 18, 2022

Activision was seeing if there were any other offers. I don't think there's any way, Sony didn't have some idea this was happening.

Kotick's response here is telling. He doesn't want history to show that he sold the company he spent 30 years running because of a sexual misconduct scandal. No, it was because his employees couldn't ship OW2 and D4 on time. It was because COD had an off year. pic.twitter.com/NBiSdrlZ5c

— Jason Schreier (@jasonschreier) January 18, 2022

Bobby doesn't want to look like he was pushed out of his own company.

Now clear via @dinabass reporting that Bobby Kotick will be gone after the deal closes https://t.co/luaEGlRpJ5

— Jason Schreier (@jasonschreier) January 18, 2022

Will not be there, when all is said and done.

[Dr. Pezus]

That's iced up. EA next?

[the-pi-guy]

I'm not particularly bothered by Activision being bought by itself. Don't care about their library at all. It's been a long time since I've bought any of their COD games. Zenimax was a much, much bigger deal to me personally. 

I bought Spyro recently because it was dirt cheap and I bought Sekiro, which they published but don't own. 

But this is terrifying because I don't know what the future holds.

What does this mean for MS?

It's really easy to panic and think that MS will just buy everyone.  That's probably not going to happen. But the fact that it seems possible in the first place is horrifying on its own. 

At this point it could be just as likely that nothing happens for a very long time.  Yes MS has a lot of money, but they have that money because they see returns on products. It'll likely be a good long while before they start seeing returns on this. 

What does this mean for Sony?

Sony has likely lost the biggest game on their platform.  This will likely affect their revenue/profit. And likely affect long term console sales. Among other things. 

I would feel better if Sony made some really big moves. Like historically big moves.
Like buy Take Two big, or buy 15 AAA studios. Start diversifying.

I don't know what they can or should do, but at this point I don't think there should be any options off the table. 

[nnodley]

I'm not particularly bothered by Activision being bought by itself. Don't care about their library at all. It's been a long time since I've bought any of their COD games. Zenimax was a much, much bigger deal to me personally.  

I bought Spyro recently because it was dirt cheap and I bought Sekiro, which they published but don't own.  

But this is terrifying because I don't know what the future holds.

What does this mean for MS?

It's really easy to panic and think that MS will just buy everyone.  That's probably not going to happen. But the fact that it seems possible in the first place is horrifying on its own.  

At this point it could be just as likely that nothing happens for a very long time.  Yes MS has a lot of money, but they have that money because they see returns on products. It'll likely be a good long while before they start seeing returns on this.  

What does this mean for Sony?

Sony has likely lost the biggest game on their platform.  This will likely affect their revenue/profit. And likely affect long term console sales. Among other things.  

I would feel better if Sony made some really big moves. Like historically big moves.
Like buy Take Two big, or buy 15 AAA studios. Start diversifying.

I don't know what they can or should do, but at this point I don't think there should be any options off the table.  

This should tell sony to get frickin moving or they might lose everything.  But this also would be a huuuuge revenue loss for MS by not putting at least COD on playstation.  I don't think its gonna move as many people from PS to xbox/pc as everyone seems to think, imo.  COD is absolutely not the juggernaut it used to be in the Modern Warfare era and by no means is it a dead franchise, but every year i don't see as much hype as before for them.

This buy is just setting a precedent for MS and Sony to buy up the industry and essentially would likely destroy it in the process.  Sony easily has the means to make a buy like EA or ubisoft or some others, but I would also hope those other publishers can see where this is heading and say no to a sale

[Legend]

The only Activision Blizzard games I've played since 2010 are Cod Ghosts, Destiny, and Destiny 2. As a player I don't even think about them.

I really hope Sony responds by making better games and smarter moves, not buying up studios for themselves. PS2 and PS4 dominated off their own value, while so much of PS5 just feels reactionary to what Microsoft does.

[nnodley]

The only Activision Blizzard games I've played since 2010 are Cod Ghosts, Destiny, and Destiny 2. As a player I don't even think about them.

I really hope Sony responds by making better games and smarter moves, not buying up studios for themselves. PS2 and PS4 dominated off their own value, while so much of PS5 just feels reactionary to what Microsoft does.

Plus its pretty clear MS is positioning themselves towards streaming/game pass and being the top in that space.  I think if any console maker is gonna drop out of consoles first its gonna be MS.   And then just put game pass everywhere it can as it matures.  

[kitler53]

1. there isn't much sony can do.  the market cap of ATVI was about half that of sony itself.  they couldn't have afforded it.   take two is even bigger so there is no chance they can by them either.   MS, however, could afford them and in all likelyhood will buy them.

2. MS will absolutely pull CoD from sony.   they won't pull the existing versions down but mark my words the first game released post acquisition will not be on ps just like starfield will not be on ps.  it doesn't matter one little bit that CoD would take a financial hit on that move because:
- this isn't a short term strategy for MS.  the millions of dollars lost on making it exclusive will be nothing compared to the billions of dollars gained by killing playstation as competition.  when playstation is gone not only does MS get a bigger piece of the industrial pie,.. the can charge whatever the fudge they want.   we're probably looking at a future where games are gamepass exclusive and also gamepass costs $60 a month.  don't like it??  are you really going to quit playing video games over it because that and nintendo are going to be your own choices...

3. MS does not give a flying fudge about destroying the industry...


sony's best strategy, imo, is to go on a direct sabotage directive.   unlike other things like web browsers or video conferencing or cloud,.. video games cannot be won in a single battle.  it's another fight year after year after year releasing new games.   MS may have acquired a lot of studios but a studio is nothing without its talent.  they should actively court the best talent out of MSs studios and woo them into creating new studios with playstation backing like they did with Jade.   It may have cost 70 billion dollars (paid to activision's share holders) for MS to get the CoD IP but the talent behind those games could be poached for like,.. 200 million.   MS has never been able to manage these studios well.   active sabotage to poach the talent and grind the studios to a hault is, imo, their only path forward.

[the-pi-guy]

1. there isn't much sony can do.  the market cap of ATVI was about half that of sony itself.  they couldn't have afforded it.   take two is even bigger so there is no chance they can by them either.   MS, however, could afford them and in all likelyhood will buy them.

Market cap of ATVI has been $50 - 64 billion since Kotick happened...
Market cap of Take Two is only $20 billion.

(But TT just acquired a company that was like 70% of their own market cap.)

Another thing about this acquisition is how undervalued Sony is. SIE by itself is 4x bigger than Activision by revenue, profit, etc.

I really hope Sony responds by making better games and smarter moves, not buying up studios for themselves.

PS2 wasn't particularly successful because of first parties. Aside from Gran Turismo. It largely dominated for being a DVD device, a PS1 player, and lots of third party exclusives.

Third parties were also a big, although shrinking part of PS4's success.  

PS2 and PS4 dominated off their own value, while so much of PS5 just feels reactionary to what Microsoft does.

It's a bit different this gen. MS is actually putting their money where their mouth is.
They made good hardware, they are buying up huge companies, they are putting in the work to enhance good will with great bc programs.

They're not competing with the Xbox One screwup, they're competing with a company that hasn't made any terrible moves and just paid huge bucks to make a lot of the biggest games exclusive to its platform.

[the-pi-guy]

The market is flipping out over this.

Sony shares fall almost 10% on Microsoft’s Activision Blizzard deal https://t.co/TDQwbvlRXV

— FT Technology News (@fttechnews) January 19, 2022

Sony Cannot ‘Answer’ The Death Star Microsoft Is Building For Xbox via @forbes https://t.co/zAz6t2slAw

— Paul Tassi (@PaulTassi) January 19, 2022

[kitler53]

of course they are.   once MS buys take-two, EA, and ubisoft playstation (and thus all of sony) goes bankrupt.

[BananaKing]

So many IPs MS will kill and make mediocre.

[the-pi-guy]

So many IPs MS will kill and make mediocre.

Jokes on you, Activision already killed them all and was working on becoming a CoD station.

[kitler53]

So many IPs MS will kill and make mediocre.

either that or all this fresh talent will lead to MS not mismanaging studios. that might not be all to likely because they have aquired a lot of strugling studios. ...but the new is bigger than the old so maintaining culture will be hard. 

Jokes on you, Activision already killed them all and was working on becoming a CoD station.

i will say this about this acquisition,...  you're pretty right that activision murdered most of their IP recently.  if MS in anyway fudges up CoD (which was already on the downward slope) MS very well could have spent 70 billion dollars on nothing.  

 as an IP i think warcraft and starcraft still have value,.. it's malleable enough to be transformed into any genre and have media tie-ins.   CoD has no "face" though and as such could easily be replaced with another IP.  i highly doubt guitar hero can make a comeback.  and crash and banjo have some low level buzz and will always sell a few copies but never be a big release.   CoD is where all the money is today,.. but one bad move and the audience could evaporate almost over night.