I'm locking in my uninformed hot take.sure, i'll lock in my opinion as well.
This will sell ok and have a dedicated group of fans, but it will be abandoned very quickly. It'll be remembered somewhere between NVidia shield and PS Vita.
I believe the concept of Steam Deck is more desirable than the final product. It's very similar to Ouya in that sense. People want improvements to their current systems so they are propping up a device that maybe just maybe will push the industry in that direction. Regardless of what Switch 2 ends up being, I think it'll quickly kill most Steam Deck interest.
For pc players that genuinely don't care about Nintendo, I think it'll have a tough job convincing enough of them to jump aboard. Dedicated PC players who build expensive desktops may enjoy Steam Deck as a bonus but the lower spec hardware could get in the way. I personally would rather wait to get home and play most of my steam games at max settings on my computer.
The price and form factor however could be a dark horse. With smartphones and tablets being so versatile, there are millions of people who do not own PCs. Steam Deck could be an incredible way to onboard new people into the Steam ecosystem that have previously only gamed on consoles. A PS4/5 only gamer could buy a Steam Deck and get a serious amount of millage out of it. If Steam Deck ends up being successful, I'm almost sure it will be primarily because it's a super accessible pc with lots of publicity.
i also think it will sell ok and have a dedicated fan base. i don't think this will convince console gamers to migrate to this. i also don't think most pc gamers will want this. in both cases it kind of comes down to performance. this is basically ps4 performance or perhaps a bit worse. i don't want that downgrade. i can't imagine too many will want that downgrade just to be able to game on the go. especially in the current environment where "work from home" is broadly accepted i have less reason than ever to want a portable device. still,.. there are a hell of a lot of pc gamers out there (and specifically 120 million "active" steam accounts). if only 5-10% of them want this then it could sell a few 10s of millions. i really can't see this doing less than 10 million LTD. i could see 20-30 million if "popular". maybe as high as 50 million?!? i don't really see this breaking 100 million though,.. i really, really think this will do nothing for people not already invested in steam. for those invested in steam i think the tinkering (mods) and performance are the main reason one chooses pc over console. steam deck is kinda contrarian to those priorities.
i don't think steam will be abandon quickly. once they put it out there there will be little to no reason to remove it. it's just another pc really. why abandon it? maybe it won't get a new revised model but honestly i doubt they won't at least give it a second go in a few year. again, this is just a pc in a funny form factor. it can't possibly been much of an investment by steam. the hardware priced to be at-cost or profitable off so they won't be losing money. at worst they'll stop investing in the platform and as such it will have a nice 5+ year runway to being sunset. this is a very low risk approach for both steam and customers. this is not a ps vita or ouya. games will come because games will still come to steam (and thus steam deck) regardless of how unpopular it may be.
